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WEATHERFORECASTINGGroup 3| Ms. Charmaine Frago | 1 st Year – St.An ela
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An ela
WEATHER FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
•
Conditioning• Barometric Reading• Sky Conditions• Now casting• Forecast modelling
– Analog – Ensemble
CONCLUSION
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TECHNIQUES - CONDITIONING•
Relies on current or present conditions todetermine future weather conditions.
• Validity is dependent only on a steadystate (i.e. tropical countries)
• Highly dependent on a stagnant weatherpattern (i.e. Wet and Dry Seasons).
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TECHNIQUES – BAROMETRICREADING•
Monitors change in atmospheric pressure• Based on the concept of “changes in
atmospheric pressure reflects weatherchanges”
• High variances in atmospheric pressure isreflective of the scope of changes inweather.
• Technique is more accurate in predictingweather patterns than Conditionin g orrelying in present weather conditions.
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TECHNIQUES - NOWCASTING•
Reliable for contain time forecasting (6hour blocks).
• Utilizes a combination of previoustechniques to determine weatherconditions within a certain time block.
• Example would be cloudy skies wouldindicate rain showers within the next fewhours but not indicative of weatherconditions after 24 hours.
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FORECASTING MODELS•
Analog – Utilizing current data to determine patterns
on weather changes. – Not fully reliable as data is static while
weather patterns are dynamic in nature.• Ensemble
– Math based forecasting technique utilizingthe Chaos Theory
– Is fully able to generate multiple forecastingor condition scenarios of weather patte rns fo rdeduction.
– Can be adapted to fully reflect dynamic
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CONCLUSION•
There is no single way to performweather forecasting
• Each technique would be applicable forcertain conditions
• Each technique has limitations whichwould make it unusable in certainconditions
• Each technique would complimentanother for a more accurate result inforecasting weather.
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CHAOS THEORY•
Mathematical representation to describethe behavior of dynamic systems (i.e.weather, human behavior)
• Applied to systems or patterns whichevolve over time – improvement or de-evolution.
• Application is relative to the concept thatfuture dynamics are defined by initialconditions.
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Group 3•
Angela Denise P. Salas• Yvanne Cabacugan• Matthew Villanueva