WBCSD EEB PROJECT
Challenges Towards Achieving a Zero Net Energy Building Sector
William Sisson, UTC, WBCSD EEB Co-chair
Lafarge Briefing
November, 2008
WBCSD EEB Project
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Energy efficiency first
From the business voice
Launch and lead sector transformation
“Sustainable” buildings (TBL)
Communicate openly with markets
A world where buildings consume zero net energy
Challenge 1
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91%Amount of energy wasted from source to useful work?
Challenge 2
4
94%Amount of energy reduction needed in new buildings to maintain 2002 current carbon levels?
Challenge 3
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54%Amount of energy reduction needed in all buildings to maintain 2002 current carbon levels?
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Policy as a supportive framework
EEB’s Three Levers
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CEO Expectations
The goal is the first quantitative look ever at what may be accomplished economically to reduce energy demand and CO2 …
We expect a persuasive result.
Global Scenarios
Stakeholders & Behavior
Diverse Participants
Know-how & Commitment
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Policy and Sector Complexities
Source: McKinsey, Dec. 2007; Reducing US Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How much and at what cost?
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
30
0
-30
-60
-90
$ / ton CO2
PotentialGigatons C02
Residential Electronics
Residential Lighting
Commercial CHP
Residential Hot Water
Commercial Building Controls
Residential Envelope Retrofits
Industry CHP
Biofuels
Residential Envelope New Construction
Commercial CFL Lighting
Commercial LED Lighting
Commercial Electronics
Commercial Envelope New Construction
Net Negative Cost
Abatement Options• Will they be adopted?• At what cost?• Over what time horizon?• How do they interact?• Resulting impact?• How to incentivize?
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We Need a Model!
That gives us the ability to assess …
What solutions will key stakeholders (i.e. decision makers) adopt?
What is the submarket energy and emission impact of adopted technologies?
How will various policy actions affect stakeholder selections?
How will potential scenarios and exogenous factors affect stakeholder decisions?
The WBCSD model evaluates energy and CO2 emissions in the context of adoption characteristics and building system interactions
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Model Characteristics
INPUT OUTPUTCALCULATION
Decision,Diffusion
AndStock Model
eQuest/DOE2(Energy Balance)
CO2 Generation
Stock Energy Usage
Cost to Owners
Cost to Gov’t
Construction Options
User Behaviors
Decision Variables
Exogenous Variables
Strategies (Policies)
Data on energy usage and decision criteria, combined with policy actions that may affect stakeholder decisions
Calculations determine preferred options and how
they would be adopted
Output allows comparison of overall impact and cost incurred
by critical stakeholders from 2005 to 2050 time horizon
Policies and Submarkets
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Homes, Europe, Cold, Low CO2 Grid
Homes, US, Warm, High CO2 Grid
Office, Japan, Warm, Modest CO2 Grid
Low Growth High Growth No Growth
Coming soon: Developing markets, retail sectors, …
Heating
Lighting
Cooking
Hot Water
Appliances
Plug Loads
CoolingVentilation
Initial Findings …
-20%-10%
0%10%20%
30%40%
50%60%70%
80%90%
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000
Total Implementation Cost
Increased Policy/Technology Aggressiveness
Low Cost, Marginal or Negative Impact
High Cost, High Impact
INCREASING COSTS
Per
bui
ldin
g C
O2
Red
uctio
n fr
om
2005
bas
elin
e
14Ref: Residential Home, Cold climate in low carbon grid (EU)
Policy Strategy and Technology Interactions
Policies and Time Horizons
Don’t bring about market adoption of more effective options
Heating
Lighting
Cooking
Hot Water
Appliances
Plug Loads
No incentives
Unaided adoption
< 5yr payback horizon
Incentives
< 5yr payback horizon
CO2
15Ref: Residential, Cold climate in low carbon grid (FR)
Financial Considerations
5 year investment horizon 4x Energy Price
Heating
Lighting
Cooking
Hot Water
Appliances
Plug Loads
CO2
Seg
men
t Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n, k
Wh/
yrS
egm
ent C
O2
emis
sion
s, tC
O2/
yr
Ref: Residential, Cold climate in low carbon grid (FR)
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Labeling, Fees, and Incentives
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Heating
Cooling
Cooking
Hot Water
Appliances
Plug Loads
CO2
Ventilation
Lighting
Utility Rate “Carbon” Fees Could Offset Incentive Costs
Effect of incentives on A & B and disincentives on E-G
Adoption Policies
Label Based Policies
WBCSD EEB Project
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Stakeholder perceptions
Differing scenarios playing out
Submarket decision modeling – more action is needed
Is the good news real?
Manifesto coming
A world where buildings consume zero net energy
Project Timeline
2006 2007 2008
Formally Announce Project (Beijing)
2009
“Setting Direction” Report
“Facts & Trends” Report
Assurance Group
Assurance Group
Assurance Group
Manifesto
Final Report (Action Plan)
Qualitative & Quantitative Assessments Recommendations to
Transform Building Sector
Setting DirectionSetting Direction
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http://www.depweb.state.pa.us/energy/cwp/view.asp?a=1532&q=539829&energyNav=|
Public comment until November 10!