Was wird uns KIalles bringen?
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christian Bauckhage
we are living in exciting times . . .
big data+ affordable HPC+ deep learning systems= progress in AI
the media on AI
Feb 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016
May 2016 May 2016 May 2016
the history of AI
< 1940 philosophy, mathematics,engineering
since 1940 first modern computersColossus, Turing et al.Z3, Plankalkul, ZuseABC, Atanasoff et al.ENIAC, Mauchly et al.
1943 control theory, Rosenblueth,Bigelow, Wiener & von Neumannartificial neurons, McCulloch &Pitts
1944 game theory, von Neumann
1945 Bush on as we may think
1946 Monte Carlo methods, Ulam
1948 cybernetics, Wienerinformation theory, Shannon
1949 Hebbian learning, Hebb
1950 neural network computer,Minsky & EdmondsTuring test, genetic algorithms,and machine learning, Turing
1951 Shannon on computer chess
1955 computational linguistics,Chomsky
1956 alpha-beta search, McCarthybirth of AI, Dartmouth summerschool by McCarthy, Minsky,Shannon & RochesterLogic Theorist, Newell & Simon
1957 perceptron, Rosenblatt
1958 LISP, McCarthy
1959 Geometric Theorem Prover,Gelernter
the history of AI
1960s microworlds, Minsky, Papert,Sussman, Winograd, Abelson
1964 ELIZA, Weizenbaum
1965 fuzzy logic, Zadeh
1966 HMMs, Baum et al.
1967 k-means clustering, MacQueen
1968 semantic networks, Quillian
1969 Minsky & Papert on perceptrons
since 1969 knowledge-based systemsDENDRAL, Buchanan et al.heuristics, Feigenbaum et al.SHRDLU, WinogradSHAKEY, Rosen, Nilsson, . . .⇒ A∗ search, Hough trsf, . . .
1972 PROLOG, Colmerauer
1975 partial order planning, Sacerdotiframes, Minsky
1978 version spaces, Mitchell
1979 Stanford cart, MoravecBKG by Berliner (CMU) beatsworld backgammon champion
the history of AI
1982 Hopfield networks, Hopfieldself organizing maps, Kohonen
1983 SOAR, Laird & Rosenbloom
1984 Bayesian networks, Pearldecision trees, Breiman
1985 Boltzmann machines, Hinton &Sejnowski
1986 back-propagation, Rumelhart,Hinton & Williams
1987 behavior-based robotics, Brooks
1989 ALVINN, PomerleauZIP code reader, LeCun et al.
1991 ILP, Muggleton
1992 TD-Gammon by Tesauro (IBM)uses reinforcement learning
1993 support vector machines, VapnikMonte Carlo GO, Brugmann
1994 self driving cars (VaMP, VITA-2),DickmannsChinook by Schaeffer et al. (UofA)beats world checkers champion
1995 kernel methods, Vapnik & Cortes
since 1995 advanced agent technologiese.g. RAX (NASA)
1997 Deep Blue (IBM) beats worldchess championLogistello by Buro (NEC) beatsworld othello champion
1998 semantic web, Berners-Lee
the history of AI
since 2000 computer vision maturesspeech recognition maturesinformation retrieval maturesrecommender systems mature
2003 train game bots using playerbehavior data, Bauckhage et al.
2005 Stanley by Thrun (Stanford) winsDARPA grand challenge
since 2010 breakthroughs in computer vision,speech recognition, automatictranslation, text processing, . . .
2011 Watson (IBM) wins Jeopardy
2013 neural networks play ATARIgames (Google DeepMind)
2015 open letter by Hawking, Musk,Wozniak on ethics in AI
2016 AlphaGO (Google DeepMind)beats world GO championALPHA (U Cincinnati) beatsair-force fighter pilots
2017 Libratus and DeepStack (CMUand UofA ) beat poker pros
faces of defeat
Kasparov, 1997 Jennings & Rutter, 2011 Lee, 2016
neural networks in a nutshell
mathematical neuron
1 x1 x2 . . . xm
f(z)
y
w0 w1 w2
wm
−4 −2 0 2 4
−1
0
1
w0
z =m∑
i=1
wi xi − w0
f (z) = tanh(z)
“deep” neural network
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13
14 15 16
17 18 19
20 21
dramatic progress in cognitive computing
text analysis and understanding
image understanding
speech recognition
robotics...
Socher et al., Proc. EMNLP, 2013
paradigm shifts in many areas
medical diagnostics
Ciresan, Giusti, Gambardella, and Schmidhuber, Proc. MICCAI, 2013Gulshan et al., JAMA, 316(22), 2016
Esteva et al., Nature, 542(7936), 2017
paradigm shifts in many areas
drug design, genetics
Ma et al., J. on Chemical Information and Modeling, 55(2), 2015Xiong et al., Science, 347(6218), 2015
a frenzy in finance
considerable investments by
BlackRock, Bridgewater,Schroders, MAN AHL, . . .
AI-based hedge funds / fintechs
Aidyia, Numerai, Sentient, . . .
research on predicting
stock momentum, volatility offutures, insolvency risk, . . .
reports accuracies of 53% – 60%
Krauss et al., Europ. J. Operation Research, 2016Ding et al., Proc. IJCAI, 2015
generating program code (A. Karpathy, github, 2015)
/* Increment the size file of the new incorrect UI_FILTER group information */static int indicate_policy(void){
int error;if (fd == MARN_EPT) {
/** The kernel blank will coeld it to userspace.
*/if (ss->segment < mem_total)
unblock_graph_and_set_blocked();else
ret = 1;goto bail;
}segaddr = in_SB(in.addr);selector = seg / 16;setup_works = true;for (i = 0; i < blocks; i++) {
seq = buf[i++];bpf = bd->bd.next + i * search;}
}bprm_self_clearl(&iv->version);regs->new = blocks[(BPF_STATS << info->historidac)] | PFMR_CLOBATHINC_SECONDS << 12;return segtable;
}
generating art
things are getting crazier by the day . . .
Google’s tensor flow, Dec 2015 Microsoft’s CNTK, Jan 2016
a Japanese farmer builds a cucumber sorting system
Google Cloud Blog, 2016
it does not even have to be neural networks . . .
June 2016
and the future is already here!
several “crazy” statements
by 2027, 75% of all S&P 500 companies will have disappeared
McKinsey, 2016
60% of all professions will be affected by automation
McKinsey, 2016
in 10 years, every process will be managed by an AI
C. Bauckhage, 2017
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#sy
naps
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bee
mouse
cat
human
The greatest shortcoming of the human raceis our inability to understand the exponentialfunction.
Albert A. Bartlett
thank you!
to find me online, simply google
“Christian Bauckhage”