Download - Voice Search and Beyond
March 3, 2015
Voice Search & Beyond . . .
Greg Sterling Contributing Editor, Search Engine Land + VP Strategy & Insights, LSA
@gsterling
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Big Picture: The Evolution of Search
From this To this And this
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Brought to You By
• Speech recognition
• Mobility (+ sensors)
• Big data/cloud
• Machine learning/artificial intelligence
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• Decades of research on speech recognition (since 1950s)
• Phone based 1-800-GOOG-411 launched in 2007 (shuttered in late 2010)
• Ford Sync (MSFT) debuts in 2007
• Google intros mobile voice search in 2008
• Siri launches as startup in late 2009
• Apple buys Siri 4/10 and integrates “her” into iPhone 4s (2011)
• Google introduces Google Now (6/12)
• Microsoft launches Cortana (4/14)
Brief History of Voice Search
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“25% of Android searches in the U.S. are voice searches” - Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt (September 2010)
2010: Android Voice Queries
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However Google Voice Search now operates in more than 30 languages and on the PC. Google has continued to expand availability
Nothing Since Then
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June 2014 All Android-powered devices (KitKat+) respond to the hotword “OK, Google”
“OK Google”
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People who search with their voice are nearly 3X more likely to be looking for local results - Chitika, October 2010
Local Queries Favored
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“Say What? Why users choose to speak their web queries” Google report by Maryam Kamvar, Doug Beeferman (2010)
Average query length: 5 – 6 words; Local queries more common than other categories
Query Length
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75% Source: comScore, February 2014
By end of 2015 in excess of 80%
US Smartphone Penetration
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60%* 40%
*Apps claim majority of time (88%)
Source: comScore, Nielsen, Flurry (2014 – 2015)
Digital Media Time
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• Notwithstanding love for the BlackBerry keyboard
• They’re not well adapted to mobile usage
Mobile Keyboard Problem
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• Google has (unofficially) projected mobile search volumes to exceed PC volumes globally 2015
• Roughly 40% to 50%* of mobile search carries a local intent (Google, Microsoft)
*Source: public company statements (2012 – 2014)
More Mobile Search = More Voice
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• 40% of survey respondents use voice for directions
• 39% to dictate text messages
• 32% to initiate calls
• 27% to check weather
Teens: 55% use voice search daily
Source: Northstar Research (10/14); n=1,400 US users over 13
Younger Users Daily
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Source: Thrive Analytics/LSA n=1,789 smartphone users (2015)
Reasons for Voice Search
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Source: Thrive Analytics/LSA n=1,789 smartphone users (2015)
Voice Search Frequency
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% of Voice Search by Age Group
Source: Thrive Analytics/LSA n=1,789 smartphone users (2015)
General consistency across age groups
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• Gen X or Gen Y
• $75K+ income
• Male Android owner
• Owns 4+ mobile devices
• Clicks on mobile ads
• Makes mobile purchases
Super User Profile: 50%+
Source: Thrive Analytics/LSA n=1,789 smartphone users (2015)
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• Asked to "pick one thing you wish
you could ask your phone to do for
you," 45% of teens selected "send
me a pizza."
• Illustrates the desire to complete
tasks and conduct transactions
rather than generate search results
Source: Northstar Research (10/14); n=1,400 US users over 13
Demand for More than SERPs
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Answers, Predictive Content
• Personal assistant
• Predictive search
• Locally, contextually relevant info
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October 2014:
• 71% of US smartphone owners under 30 have used (i.e. Siri, Google Now, Cortana); 57% overall
• 63% use at least weekly with over 50% “on-the-go”
Top uses:
• 66% search for general information • 65% look for directions • 44% get weather • 31% set reminders, meetings and notifications • 20% search for deals for local products & services
Source: Thrive Analytics, October 2014, n=2,058
Assistant Metaphor Replacing “Search”
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• Cortana is the UI but also a stack of
technology and capabilities,
including speech, NLU and Bing’s
index
• Bing the “intelligence engine” or
“intelligence fabric” behind Cortana
• Assistants the superset, search the
subset
Cortana the UI, Bing the Engine
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Assistant Usage Frequency
Source: Thrive Analytics, October 2014, n=2,058
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Source: Thrive Analytics, October 2014, n=2,058
Digital Assistant Satisfaction
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Desired Improvements
Source: Thrive Analytics, October 2014, n=2,058
• Anticipate needs
• Contextual information
• Personalization
• Facilitate transactions via voice
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Conversational Search
Source: Thrive Analytics, October 2014, n=2,058
Google creating “conversational search” model:
• Builds on previous previous queries/history
• Understands context
• Contemplates multiple steps/queries
• Oriented to task completion/transactions
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Conclusions/Recommendations
• Over time: queries longer, more “conversational,” more specific
• Mobile sites matter but traditional SERP less frequent; more “answers,” more “cards”
• Structured data powers “cards”
• Get location, services, product and other enhanced data into relevant places (e.g., Maps, GMB, Yelp, other 3rd party apps)
• Mobile SEM: top 2 positions critical
• Mobile display/native come to Google Now