World Business Council for
Sustainable D evelopment
Vision 2050
The new agenda for business
Title of the eventPlace & date
Summary
About Vision 2050
• The vision concept and the 2050 timeframe provide a clear and feasible goal for…
o Identifying the gap between today and 2050
o Developing a pathway and areas of action
o Clarifying the business perspective
o Quantifying market potential
o Agreeing on action points and next steps
A collaborative effort involving 29 companies
A global business dialogue
The different steps of the Vision 2050 project
Growth and degradation
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Popula
tion in
mill
ions
Urban - Less developed
Rural - Less developed
Urban - More developed
Rural - More developed
0
10,000
20,000
30,000GD
P 2
00
6 US
$ b
n
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
02005 2030
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
400 million
1.2 billion
Perce
nt o
f glo
ba
l po
pu
lati
on
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Middle East and North Africa
Latin America and the Caribbean
Europe and Central Asia
East Asia and the
Global economic power isshiftingTop 10 economies by GDP in 2050
Theworld population is increasingly urbanGlobal population by type of area and by region – 1950-2050
Theglobal middle class israpidly expandingPopulation in low- and middle-incomecountriesearning US$ 4,000-17,000 percapita(purchasing power parity)
1970
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O 2e
q
Rest of the world
BRIC (Brazil,Russia, India, China)
OECD
0
2030
2005
2030
2005
2030
2005
500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Millions of people
2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Severe
Medium
Low
No
0%
2000
Fore
cast p
ost
-pe
ak de
clin
e ra
te
2005
Campbell
LBST
Peak Oil Consulting
Uppsala
Total
BGR
Shell
MillerMeling
OPEC
IEA
USEIA
2010 2015 2020 2025
Forecast date of peak
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Greenhousegasemissionskeep risingGHG emissions by regions
Environmental degradation jeopardizespeople’squality of lifePeople living in areas of water stress by level of stress
Theworld could be running out of some resourcesGlobal supply forecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverableresources of conventional oil, date of peak production and the post-peakaggregate decline rate
Growth Degradation
Growth: The world population is increasingly urban
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Popul
atio
n in
mill
ions
Urban - Less developed
Rural - Less developed
Urban - More developed
Global population by type of area and by region – 1950-2050
Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008
Growth: The world population is increasingly urban
Between now and 2050 the global population is expected to increase from
6.9 billion to more than 9 billion, with
98% of this growth happening in
cities and in the developing and
emerging world
0
China
Unite
d St
ates
Indi
aBr
azil
Mex
ico
Russ
ia
Indo
nesia
Japa
n
Unite
d Kin
gdom
Germ
any
10,000
20,000
30,000GD
P 2
006 U
S$ b
n
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Growth: Global economic power is shifting
Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050
Source: Goldman Sachs, BRICs and Beyond, 2007
Growth: Global economic power is shifting
Most of the economic growth will
happen in developing or
emerging economies
Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding
Population in low- and middle-income countries earning US$ 4,000-17,000 per capita (purchasing power parity)
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, 2007
02005 2030
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
400 million
1.2 billion
Perc
en
t of g
lob
al p
op
ula
tio
n
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Middle East and North Africa
Latin America and the Caribbean
Europe and Central Asia
East Asia and the
Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding
About 800 million people
will join the middle class in low and middle
income countries
Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising
1970
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2e
q
Rest of the world
BRIC (Brazil,Russia, India, China)
OECD
GHG emissions by regions
Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008
Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising
GHG are projected to grow by a further
52% to 2050, resulting in an increase in global temperature in the range of
1.7-2.4° C, leading to increased heat waves, droughts, storms and floods,
resulting in severe damage to keyinfrastructure and crops
Degradation: Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life
0
2030
2005
2030
2005
2030
2005
500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Millions of people
2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Severe
Medium
Low
No
People living in areas of water stress by level of stress
Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008
Degradation: Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life
Over the past half century 15 of the 24 ecosystem services have been
degraded according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Degradation: The world could be running out of some resources
0%
2000
Fore
cast
post
-peak d
ecl
ine r
ate
2005
Campbell
LBST
Peak Oil Consulting
Uppsala
Total
BGR
Shell
Miller
Meling
OPEC
IEA
USEIA
2010 2015 2020 2025
Forecast date of peak
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Global supply forecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverable resources of conventional oil, date of peak production and the post-peak aggregate decline rate
Source: UKERC, The Global Oil Depletion Report, 2009
Degradation: The world could be running out of some resources
Oil production will
peak and
decrease
Ecological estimates: Getting to one planet by the end of the 2050s
Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual How many Earths do we use?
Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010
2.3 Earths (BAU)
1.1 Earths (Vision 2050)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Num
ber
of E
arth
s
Year
Carbon footprint
Cropland
Grazing land
Forest
Meeting human demands within the ecological limits of the planet
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
World average biocapacity per person in 2006
World average biocapacity per person in 1961 UN
DP
thre
shold f
or h
igh h
um
an d
evelo
pm
en
t
High human developmentwithin the Earth’s limits
2
4
6
8
10
12
Eco
log
ical Footp
rin
t (g
lob
al h
ect
are
s per p
ers
on
)
United Nations Human Development Index
African countries
Asian countries
European countries
Latin American andCaribbean countries
North American countries
Oceanian countriesMeeting the dual goals of sustainability High human development and low ecological impact
Source: © Global Footprint Network (2009). Data from Global Footprint Network National Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP Human Development Report, 2009
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
World average biocapacity per person in 2006
World average biocapacity per person in 1961 UN
DP
thre
shold f
or h
igh h
um
an d
evelo
pm
en
t
High human developmentwithin the Earth’s limits
2
4
6
8
10
12
Eco
log
ical Footp
rin
t (g
lob
al h
ect
are
s per p
ers
on
)
United Nations Human Development Index
African countries
Asian countries
European countries
Latin American andCaribbean countries
North American countries
Oceanian countries
Nine billion people living well, within the limits of the planet
• Diversity and interdependence• A different economic reality• Multi-partner governance• In markets: Innovating and deploying solutions• Dealing with climate change• An evolved workplace and evolved employers
TODAY
The pathway to Vision 2050To a sustainable world in 2050
From business-as-usual
People’s values
Vision for 2050
“One World – People and Planet” lifestyles
Turbulent teens
Understanding and encouraging change through cooperation
Transformation time
Sustainable living becomes mainstream
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006 (from GGDC, CSLS, GSS/Eurobarometer)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
GDP per capita
Economic well-being
Happiness
Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA(index: 1980 =100)
Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA(Index: 1980=100)
Happiness does not completely depend on GDP
Human development
Vision for 2050
Basic needs of all are met
Turbulent teens
Building trust, entrepreneurialism, inclusiveness
Transformation time
Ecosystems and enterprises help create value
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1975
Life
exp
ect
ancy
(ye
ars
)
2000 2025 2050
Less developed regions - leastdeveloped countries (Male)
More developed regions (Male)
Less developed regions - leastdeveloped countries (Female)
More developed regions (Female)
Life expectancy by region - 1950-2050
Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008
Life expectancy by region – 1950-2050
People are living longer
Economy
Vision for 2050
True value, true costs, true profits
Turbulent teens
Redefining progress
Transformation time
True values help drive inclusive markets
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006
What GDP does and does not measure
Happiness Livingconditions
Economicwell-being GDP
genetics
family
friends
worksatisfaction
netinvestment
communities
environment
health
(inequality)
education
leisure
wealth
non-marketactivity
(unemployment)
(insecurity)
consumption
(brackets indicate negative impact)
depreciation
net incomegoing toforeigners
regrettables
Reconsidering success and progress
Agriculture
Vision for 2050
Enough food, water and biofuels through a new Green Revolution
Turbulent teens
Cultivating knowledge-intensive agriculture
Transformation time
Growth in global trade, crop yield and carbon management
Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, Realising the Potential of Africa’s Youth, 2009 (FAOSTAT)
Cereal yield by region – 1960-2010
Tonnes per h
ect
are
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Africa
Southern Asia
Europe
Africa’s yield growth has lagged behind other regions
Forests
Vision for 2050
Recovery and regeneration
Turbulent teens
Carbon incentives drive progress
Transformation time
Growing momentum for forest protection and efficient production
Source: FAO, State of the World’s Forests 2009, 2009
Consumption of industrial roundwood by region – 1965-2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1965 1990 2005 2020 2030
mill
ions m
3
North America
Europe
Asia and
Latin America
Africa
Western andCentral Asia
Increasing consumption of industrial roundwood
Energy and power
Vision for 2050
Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon
Turbulent teens
Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy
Transformation time
Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, © OECD/IEA 2008
Average annual power generation – capacity additions – 2010-2050
0 10 20 30GW per year
40 50 60
Wind-o
Wind-
Gas-
Coal- 30 - 35 CCS plants (500 MW)
1 - 20 CCS plants (500 MW)
24 - 32 nuclear plants (1,000 MW)
1/5 of Canada's hydropower capacity
30 - 100 biomass plants (50 MW)
2,900 - 14,000 wind turbines (4 MW)
775 - 3,750 wind turbines (4 MW)
50 - 130 geothermal units (100 MW)
115 - 215 million m² solar panels
45 - 80 CSP plants (250 MW)
Huge capacity additions needed to deliver the new energy mix
Energy and power
Vision for 2050
Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon
Turbulent teens
Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy
Transformation time
Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009, © OECD/IEA 2009
World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 scenario
A new energy mix to reduce CO2 emissions
Buildings
Vision for 2050
Close to zero net energy buildings
Turbulent teens
Turning the market toward energy efficiency
Transformation time
Smarter buildings, wiser users
Source: WBCSD, Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 2008
Players and practices in the building market
System integration is key to achieving energy efficiency in buildings
Mobility
Vision for 2050
Universal access to safe and low-impact mobility
Turbulent teens
A holistic approach improves overall transport
Transformation time
Towards alternative drivetrains and fuels
Materials
Vision for 2050
Not a particle of waste
Turbulent teens
Doing more with less
Transformation time
Closing the loop
Source: WBCSD
An alternative material life cycle
Manufacturer
Longuse
Reuse ofproducts
Reuse ofparts
Closed loopmaterialsrecycling
Open loopmaterialsrecycling
Landfill
User
Eliminating waste by closing the material loop
The risks to achieving Vision 2050
Risks in the elements of the pathway•People’s values: Can we all agree?
•Economy: Swimming against the tide of mainstream economics
•Agriculture: Politics, water shortages could uproot the Green Revolution
•Forests: Is it too late already?
•Energy: Progress may be victim to power struggles
•Buildings: In a bad market incentives could fall
•Mobility: Will not become sustainable without a systemic approach
•Materials: Recycling can be expensive
Wild cards that could take the world off the Vision 2050 track•New understanding of how the Earth works
•A World of new ideological blocs, failing states or resources war
•Disagreement on valuing the environment
•Unintended consequences of new technologies
•Extended economic recessions or economic depression
•Natural disasters
Economic estimates: Considerable opportunities
Sectors Annual value in 2050(US$ trillion at constant 2008prices: mid-points with ranges
shown in brackets)
% of projected world GDPin 2050
Energy 2.0 (1.0-3.0) 1.0 (0.5-1.5)
Forestry 0.2 (0.1-0.3) 0.1 (0.05-0.15)
Agriculture and food 1.2 (0.6-1.8) 0.6 (0.3-0.9)
Water 0.2 (0.1-0.3) 0.1 (0.05-0.15)
Metals 0.5 (0.2-0.7) 0.2 (0.1-0.3)
Total : Natural resources 4.1 (2.0-6.1) 2.0 (1.0-3.0)
Health and education 2.1 (0.8-3.5) 1.0 (0.5-1.5)
Total 6.
Source: PwC estimates drawing on data from IEA, OECD and the World Bank
Illustrative estimates of the global order of magnitude of potential additional sustainability related business opportunities in key sectors in 2050
Ecological estimates: Getting to one planet by the end of the 2050s
Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual How many Earths do we use?
Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010
2.3 Earths (BAU)
1.1 Earths (Vision 2050)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Num
ber
of E
arth
s
Year
Carbon footprint
Cropland
Grazing land
Forest
Business domains for the next decade – Opportunities and overlaps
Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities
0 10US$ trillions
30
Ports and airports
Roads and railways
Energy
Water
Investment requirements for urban infrastructure up to 2030
Source: Booz Allen Hamilton, Strategy+Business, n°46, 2007 (from Booz Allen Hamilton, Global InfrastructurePartners, World Energy Outlook, OECD, Boeing, Drewry Shipping Consultants, U.S. Department of Transportation)
Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities
Estimates suggest that by 2030 US$ 40 trillion will need to
be invested in urban infrastructure worlwide
Water infrastructure: A great variety of solutions will be needed
Aggregate 2030 demand
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
South Africa
São Paulo state
China
India 1,498
818
20
18
Agriculture
Industry
Municipal and domestic
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Billionm3
Billionm3
2030 supply
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
Demand for water will outstrip supply – Action is needed to plug the gap Base-case demand, supply and corresponding gaps for certain regions
Source: McKinsey/Water Resources Group, Charting our water future, 2009
Waste management infrastructure: Excess inputs and outputs will be redeployed/reused
0
50
1975
Mill
ion
ton
nes
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
100
150
200
250
300
350
Virgin metal shipments
Scrap/increased recycling rates
Aluminum bank(aluminum stored in products)
Metals and materials will increasingly be mined from products in useOutlook for different sources of aluminum – 1995-2030
Source: Hydro Aluminium, Aluminium for a Viable Society, 2004
Health
Increased access to better healthcare and prevention
will have positive effects on the
economy and businesses
Products and services for aging populations
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1950 2000 2050
Population aged 65+
Population aged 15-64
Population aged 0-14
The world is agingThe world population by age cohort – 1950-2050
Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008
Products and services for aging populations
By 2020 people aged 65 and above will account for
about one-fifth of the total
global population
Each month around 1.9 million people in the world
will join the ranks of the over 65s
Building and managing complex coalitions
Non-governmentalorganizations
(NGOs)
Traditional development(supply-side bias)
Market-based approach(demand-side bias)
Economic Development
SocialDevelopment
High
High
Low
Low
New partnership paradigm
Complexcoalitionstructures
Privatesector
Building complex coalitions for social and economic development
Source: Accenture, Development Collaboration, None of our Business? 2009
Conclusion and way forward
Urgent action is needed
• Complex systems will provide the foundation
• Business cannot do it alone
• The journey begins now…