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Mapping the Intensity of Finnish Climate PoliciesInternal workshop 23.9.2016Visa Kivisaari, Jani Lukkarinen, Mikael Hildén, Eeva Primmer & Paula Kivimaa WP5
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Outline of the presentation1. Key questions and ideas behind the study2. Data & Methods3. Preliminary results4. Where do we go from here?
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Policy mix approach to transitions”The rationale behind [analysing policy mixes] is the multiple market, system and institutional failures in place requiring multi-faceted policy intervention.” [Reichardt & Rogge, 2016: 63]
“In spite of a growing body of research on issues like countries’ climate mitigation strategies, climate policy change, and diffusion of specific policies, accumulating knowledge is hampered by the limited comparability of findings.” [Schaffrin et al., 2015: 257]
”…policies could be disruptive in the institutional context shaking the regime in a way that reduces the value of existing practices and technologies…” [Kivimaa & Kern, 2016: 207]
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• What are the policies that potentially affect the transition?
Constraining? Advancing?
• How can one measure the ‘strength’ or ‘intensity’ of a policy?
Effective <-> rhetoric/symbolic
The questions and tasks
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The basic idea
1) For a policy to have any impact, it must display certain basic characteristics that can be objectively determined. CPA index [Schaffrin, A., Sewerin, S., & Seubert, S., 2015]
2) It is possible to measure the (potential) impacts on energy transitions by exploring the TIS functions that the policy is expected to promote.TIS analysis [Kivimaa, P., & Kern, F., 2016]
(semi-)quantitative coding work: turning qualitative data into quantitative measurement
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• Policies and Measures (PAMs) reported to EU in 2015 and policies of Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment
Policy data
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Index of Climate Policy Activity (CPA)
• Integration – there is a recognisible intragration into a wider set of policies
• Scope – it has a clear scope
• Objective - it has specific objectives
• Budget – it has a budget
• Implementation – it is being implemented
• Monitoring – it is being monitored
(Each criterion can get a value between 0 and 1)
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Coding: CPA example 1:Voluntary energy efficiency agreements• Integration – 0,5
• Scope – 0,15
• Objective – 0,33
• Budget – 0
• Implementation – 0,25
• Monitoring – 0,5
• Coded value 0,289
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Coding: CPA example 2:Promoting wind power (tariff system)• Integration – 0,5• Scope – 0• Objective – 0,13• Budget – 1• Implementation – 0,75• Monitoring – 1
• Coded value 0,563
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Index of Climate Policy Activity (CPA)
Intensity Measure
Mean
Integration 0,6Scope 0,3Objective 0,06Budget 0,08Implementation 0,67Monitoring 0,57CPA Index 0,38
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
All policies arranged by the index value
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Some preliminary CPA-Index results
• In general, most of the emission reductions are allocated to few policy instruments.
• Many sectors (particularly transport & agriculture) remain latent in policy intensity measures.
• Majority of policies lack budget and clear objective -> suggests a weak design
• All the significant energy transition policies are not reported in PAMs.
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Creative and disruptive policy functions (TIS)C1 Knowledge development and diffusionC2 Influence on the direction of searchC3 Entrepreneurial experimentationC4 Market formationC5 Legitimation/AdvocacyC6 Resource mobilisation
D1 New Control policiesD2 Significant changes in regime rulesD3 Reduced support for dominant regime technologiesD4 Changes in social networks, replacement of key actors
(Each criterion can get a value of 0, 0,5 or 1)
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Coding: TIS example 1:Voluntary energy efficiency agreementsC1 Knowledge development and diffusionC2 Influence on the direction of searchC3 Entrepreneurial experimentationC4 Market formationC5 Legitimation/AdvocacyC6 Resource mobilisation
D1 New Control policiesD2 Significant changes in regime rulesD3 Reduced support for dominant regime technologiesD4 Changes in social networks, replacement of key actors
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Coding: TIS example 2:Promoting wind power (tariff system)C1 Knowledge development and diffusion
C2 Influence on the direction of search
C3 Entrepreneurial experimentation
C4 Market formation
C5 Legitimation/Advocacy
C6 Resource mobilisation
D1 New Control policies
D2 Significant changes in regime rules
D3 Reduced support for dominant regime technologies
D4 Changes in social networks, replacement of key actors
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TIS-functions
C1 Knowledge
develo
pment a
nd diffusion
C7 Influen
ce on th
e dire
ction of sear
ch
C4 Entre
preneu
rial ex
perimen
tation
C2 Mark
et form
ation
C6 Legiti
mation/A
dvocac
y
C5 Resource
mobilis
ation
D1 New Contro
l polici
es
D2 Significan
t chan
ges in
regim
e rules
D3 Reduced
support
for dominan
t regi
me tech
nologies
D4 Change
s in so
cial n
etworks
, replac
emen
t of k
ey act
ors0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Others (6)Agriculture & forestry (6)Waste management (4)Land-use planning (2)Buildings (9)Transport (4)Energy efficiency (4)Renewable energy (4)
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Some preliminary TIS results
• Experimentation and knowledge creation score surprisingly low.
• Agricultural policies remain a non-factor.
• Energy policies emphasise constructive more than destructive elements.
• Waste and buildings account for most of the disruptive policy elements.
• The found disruptive functions (new control policies and regime rules) are system-level instead of technology-specific (reduced support).
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Reflection• The strenght of policies can be determined ’reasonably objectively’ (i.e.
estimates are independently repeatable, but require transparent reasoning)
• Is the low disruptive score an indication of a missing policy function or a demonstration of the difficulty in detecting it?
• Overall, all sectors contain policies that are weak in every respect. Do these policies have some other function(s) [such as increasing the acceptability of the ’stronger’ policies, functioning as catalysts for future policies or are they ’pure’ lip service?
• Evaluation of policy intensity and TIS-functions tell fairly little in isolation - relations, comparisons and groupings are the key.
• How do the two approaches complement each other, do they?
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Sources
Kivimaa, P., & Kern, F. (2016). Creative destruction or mere niche support? Innovation policy mixes for sustainability transitions. Research Policy.
http://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2015.09.008
Reichardt, K. & Rogge, K. (2016). How the policy mix impacts innovation: Findings from company case studies on offshore wind in Germany. Environmental Innovations and Societal Transitions 18, 62-81.
Schaffrin, A., Sewerin, S., & Seubert, S. (2015). Toward a Comparative Measure of Climate Policy Output. Policy Studies Journal, 43(2), 257–282. http://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12095
Kiitos!