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Decadal climate predictions for climate services
Freja Vamborg
Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyHamburg, Germany
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A framework for decadal climate predictionMiKlip project
Making skillful (and useful) predictions
„Roadmap“ for making decadal climate predictions part of a climate services portfolio
Overview
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A framework for decadal climate predictionMiKlip project
Making skillful (and useful) predictions
„Roadmap“ for making decadal climate predictions part of a climate services portfolio
Overview
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Decadal climate predictions Climate projections
• An estimate of the actual future evolution of climate
• Predicts anthropogenic change and climate variability
• Initial state based on observations of slow climate components (ocean, others)
• Hindcasts (retrospective predictions) allow to assess skill
• One potential future evolution of climate
• Contingent on emissions scenarios
• Initial state not considered essential
What are decadal climate predictions and how do they differ from climate projections?
Thanks to J. Marotzke, MPI Meteorology
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What are decadal climate predictions and how do they differ from climate projections?
Daily Monthly Seasonal Decadal Multi-decadal to centennial
Initial value problem:
Forced boundary condition
Picture: E . Winqvist
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Decadal climate predictions - a candidate for climate services?
YES•time-horizon appropriate for decision making •indication of predictability for certain quantities
– Atlantic hurricanes (Smith et al. 2010)– Arctic sea ice, heatwaves, impacts?
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Decadal climate predictions - a candidate for climate services?
YES•time-horizon appropriate for decision making •indication of predictability for certain quantities
RECOMMENDATION •develop a system for decadal climate predictions (World Summit 2009)•“Decadal exchange“ (lead Hadley Center1)
1. Smith et al. (2012) submitted to Climate Dynamics
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Decadal climate predictions - a candidate for climate services?
YES•time-horizon appropriate for decision making •indication of predictability for certain quantities
RECOMMENDATION •develop a system for decadal climate predictions (e.g. World Summit 2009)•“Decadal exchange“ (lead Hadley Center)
Key Question can predictability be established?MiKlip project1
1. www.fona-miklip.de
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Research challenges
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Only difference between hindcasts is the initialisation datasetRight panel - clear improvement over the tropics
Initialisation
BAD GOOD
Correlation with HadISST for lead year 2
Graphic from H. Pohlmann, MPI Meteorology
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Only difference between hindcasts is the initialisation datasetRight panel - clear improvement over the tropics
Need: Initialisation techniques and state estimates
Initialisation
BAD GOOD
Correlation with HadISST for lead year 2
Graphic from H. Pohlmann, MPI Meteorology
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Lack of robust decadal climate variabilty in global models•differences in the representation of processes e.g., AMOC•missing processes
Processes
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Lack of robust decadal climate variabilty in global models
Need: increased process understanding
Processes
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Increased relevance for usersBut, so far: •little focus on regional modelling + decadal climate prediction
Regionalisation
Graphics from Andreas Will (BTU Cottbus) and DKRZ
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Little regional modelling + decadal climate prediction
Need to: – investigate key regions – combine global and regional models
Regionalisation
Graphics from Andreas Will (BTU Cottbus) and DKRZ
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How do we judge what information is of use? •Scientific perspective:
– Skill (statistical)
•Societal perspective– Usefulness /applicability for decision making
Evaluation
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How do we judge what information is of use? •Scientific perspective:
– Skill (statistical)
•Societal perspective– Usefulness /applicability for decision making
NEED to: •develop tools and methods to evaluate skill of decadal predictions•involve potential users
Evaluation
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Ultimate challenge: system for decadal prediction
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MiKlip project aim
Exchange of results during project development stages
Project coordination: J. Marotzke, D. Stammer, U. Cubasch, Ch. Kottmeier, U. Ulbrich, P. Becker
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A framework for decadal climate predictionMiKlip project
Making skillful (and useful) predictions
„Roadmap“ for making decadal climate predictions part of a climate services portfolio
Overview
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Current decadal prediction system“Baseline 0“
Global model: MPI-ESM-LR•Historical run: CMIP5 (all forcings) •Hindcasts: - 1961 – 2011
- initialised yearly- 3 ensemble members (10 for 5th year)
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Global model: MPI-ESM-LR•Historical run: CMIP5 (all forcings) •Hindcasts: - 1961 – 2011
- initialised yearly- 3 ensemble members (10 for 5th year)
Skill measure for hindcasts•RMSE compared to
– historical runs– persistence
Current decadal prediction system“Baseline 0“
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Initialised experiments compared to historical: skill in North Atlantic, reduced
skill in tropics, low skill over land
Müller et al. (2012) submitted to GRL
GOOD
BAD
Global mean surface T – lead year 2-5 RMSE w.r.t. HadISST & GHCN-CAMS
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Prediction of quantities with known skill+ confidence in physical mechanism
Graphic from H. Pohlmann, MPI Meteorology
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Prediction of quantities with known skill+ confidence in physical mechanism
• How relevant is this information from a climate services point of view?
Graphic from H. Pohlmann, MPI Meteorology
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Boosting skill by reduced time-interval? – seasonal patterns in EuropeRMSE for Sept-Oct-Nov
Müller et al. (2012) submitted to GRL
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Boosting skill by reduced time-interval? – seasonal patterns in EuropeRMSE for Sept-Oct-Nov
Müller et al. (2012) submitted to GRL
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Boosting skill by reduced time-interval? – seasonal patterns in Europe
RMSE Sept-Oct-Nov in Eastern Europe
Müller et al. (2012) submitted to GRL
HindcastsPersistenceUninitialised
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RSME lower for initialised runs, but not as consistent as for annual means
Boosting skill by reduced time-interval? – seasonal patterns in Europe
RMSE Sept-Oct-Nov in Eastern Europe
Müller et al. (2012) submitted to GRL
HindcastsPersistenceUninitialised
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• Inter-decadal trend more realistic in regional modelpotential for increasing skill by using regional model contingent on global model skill in SSTs
Boosting skill by regionalisation ? 1961-99 summer rainfall trend over N Africa
Global (ECHAM5) Regional (REMO) Obs. (GPCC)
Graphic: Prof. H. Paeth and A. Paxian, Uni Würzburg
-1500 -200 - 20 20 200 1500 (mm/yr)
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Baseline 0 Baseline 1 (new initialisation)
Baseline 0: decadal trend in Atlantic SST not capturedBaseline 1:
Positive correlation for the whole Atlantic basin SSTs necessary for n. Africa might be better capturedHighlights the need for several iterations within the project
Updating the decadal prediction system
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With the global model: •robust skill for some regions (e.g. North Atlantic)•indication of increased skill over land when considering seasons With the regional models: •potential for added value, if skill in the global model can be established
Skill summary
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With the global model: •robust skill for some regions (e.g. North Atlantic)•indication of increased skill over land when considering seasons With the regional models: •potential for added value, if skill in the global model can be established
Promising results, but a lot of work before being able to offer a „range“ of regions/times/quantities with skill
Need iterations involving all MiKlip modules
Skill summary
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A framework for decadal climate predictionMiKlip project
Making skillful (and useful) predictions
„Roadmap“ for making decadal climate predictions part of a climate services portfolio
Overview
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Roadmap1. Establish confidence in skill before involving users
Framework for decadal predictionImprove system skill (and understanding) from a scientific perspective This is where MiKlip (and others) are now
Decadal climate predictions as part of a climate services portfolio
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Roadmap1. Establish confidence in skill before involving users Once potential for skill has been demonstrated: 2. Involve users in particular regions/with particular quantities of interest
– e.g., useful indices, seasons, quantities
Decadal climate predictions as part of a climate services portfolio
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Roadmap1. Establish confidence in skill before involving users 2. Involve users in particular regions/with particular quantities of interest When users have been involved 3. Pin-point processes, regions and evaluation tools necessary for users‘ needs
improvement of skill system from a user/climate services perspective
Decadal climate predictions as part of a climate services portfolio
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Roadmap1. Establish confidence in skill before involving users 2. Involve users in particular regions/with particular quantities of interest 3. Pin-point processes, regions and evaluation tools necessary for users‘ needs 4. Provide decadal predictions for climate services
Decadal climate predictions as part of a climate services portfolio
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Roadmap1. Establish confidence in skill before involving users 2. Involve users in particular regions/with particular quantities of interest 3. Pin-point processes, regions and evaluation tools necessary for users‘ needs 4. Provide decadal predictions for climate services
Decadal climate predictions as part of a climate services portfolio