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8/9/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Retail Stocks, Valuation Warning,Netflix, and the VZ/AOL Merger
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May 8, 2015
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VALUATION WARNING: Overvalued stocks now make up 66.!" o# ourstocks ass$%ned a valuat$on and &'.&" o# t(ose e)u$t$es are calculated to*e overvalued *+ &," or more. ALL sectors are calculated to *eovervalued--w$t( n$ne at or near dou*le d$%$ts.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Inde /tarted week 0r$da+ A1 2(an%e 2(an%e " +td
34IA %&%&"& %&()) 6'.&& ,.5'" &.&"
NA/3A7 )**+"(, )*."() !.88 ,.8&" 6.9&"
RU//LL &,,, %(+"). %(+" 9.99 ,.'&" 5.&&"
/;< !,, (%%)"), (%(%"%% !.!! ,.&6" 5.,&"
/ummar+ o# V /tock Un$verse
/tocks Undervalued 55.9!"
/tocks Overvalued 66.!"
/tocks Undervalued *+ &," .6"
/tocks Overvalued *+ &," &'.&,"
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8/9/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Retail Stocks, Valuation Warning,Netflix, and the VZ/AOL Merger
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SECTOR OVERVIEW
/ector 2(an%e 1T3 =T3 Valuat$on Last &-1Return
Rat$o
Aerospace %"%*/ *",,/ )"&/ (("%(/ overvalued -("(%/ (*"%.
Auto-T$res-Trucks *",/ %"(,/ ,"(+/ ,",/ overvalued -%"%,/ %",+
?as$c 1ater$als *"(/ %"))/ "+&/ (".%/ overvalued -%%"+)/ ()"+,
?us$ness /erv$ces %"(/ %",*/ "+,/ %*",%/ overvalued "++/ (,"(,
2omputer and Tec(nolo%+ *",/ ("%./ ,")/ %)"&)/ overvalued ."(%/ +*")
2onstruct$on *",)/ %"&/ ("/ ("*./ overvalued %",+/ ("(+
2onsumer 3$scret$onar+ *"/ %"*)/ ,")/ %*"&)/ overvalued %"./ (")&
2onsumer /taples %"*./ *"./ +",*/ %+"&+/ overvalued ",&/ ()"(,
0$nance *"./ *")/ "(*/ "+*/ overvalued ",(/ %".
Industr$al
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8/9/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Retail Stocks, Valuation Warning,Netflix, and the VZ/AOL Merger
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Se"t# Tal$%Retail&W'#lesaleBelow, we present the latest data on leading Retail/Wholesale Sector stocksfrom our Institutional software package (VEI. These results were filtered by marketprice and volumeno results below !"/share or less than #$$k shares/day volume.
Top-0$ve Reta$l>W(olesale /ector /tocks--/(ort-Term 0orecast Returns
T$cker 2ompan+ Name 1arket W(olesale /ector /tocks--2ompos$te /core
T$cker 2ompan+ Name 1arket E? >7T9@>EA28? ,.",) -"./ %+",
G1 =76E4T2; 523; +."% -("((/ %%"%+
L 178?4 E8? I85 (."( -)"+(/ %"(.
??W >:I1?-7->E73 WB %,".. -(("+/ %".*
http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0
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8/9/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Retail Stocks, Valuation Warning,Netflix, and the VZ/AOL Merger
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Top-0$ve Reta$l>W(olesale /ector /tocks--1ost Overvalued
T$cker 2ompan+ Name 1arket
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8/9/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Retail Stocks, Valuation Warning,Netflix, and the VZ/AOL Merger
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As a *onus to our Newsletter readersDwe are o##er$n% a 0R 3OWNLOA3 o# one o# our /tock Reports
.ead our 1omplete etailed Valuation .eport on #E)F&I2 ER.
ValuEngine !orecast
Target=rice>
0&pectedReturn
"#$onth ?6.@ $.!?A
%#$onth ?.6@ $.56A
$onth 5.5 $.!A
"#'ear @$.6 6.$A
#'ear CC.#? 5.$5A
%#'ear 6#5.#! 5.CCA
http://www.valuengine.com/download/report/TMP_VE_NFLX_20150515006771.pdfhttp://www.valuengine.com/charts/pricerating_jpg/NFLX.jpghttp://www.valuengine.com/download/report/TMP_VE_NFLX_20150515006771.pdf
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Valuation ) RankingsValuation 5#?.!A overvalued Valuation Rank 'D+ #
"#$ !orecast Return $.!?A "#$ !orecast Return Rank 5
"#$ Return @@.C?A $o*entu* Rank 'D+ +harpe Ratio $.6 +harpe Ratio Rank 'D+ C@
#' -vg -nnual Return !6.A #' -vg -nnual Rtn Rank C
Volatility C$.CA Volatility Rank 'D+ #
E.pecte/ E0+ 1rowth ?.6A E0+ 1rowth Rank 'D+ C
$arket Cap (billions !.6@ +i2e Rank C
3railing 04E Ratio #[email protected]@ 3railing 04E Rank 'D+ 5
!orwar/ 04E Ratio 6!$.6 !orwar/ 04E Ratio Rank #
0E1 Ratio n/a 0E1 Ratio Rank n/a
0rice4+ales @.## 0rice4+ales Rank 'D+ #@
$arket45ook #?.C $arket45ook Rank 'D+ C
5eta #.$C 5eta Rank 6
-lpha $.66 -lpha Rank
W'ats -#t.
//Valuati#n WARNIN Issue*alu0ngine tracks more than C$$$ 7S eEuities, ;3Rs, and foreign stock which
trade on 7S e&changes as well as F#$$$ 4anadian eEuities. When 0=S estimates are
available for a given eEuity, our model calculates a level of mispricing or valuationpercentage for that eEuity based on earnings estimates and what the stock shouldbe worth if the market were totally rational and efficientan academic e&ercise to be
sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between eEuities, sectors, and
industries. 7sing our aluation :odel, we can currently assign a 0 valuationcalculation to more than 5?$$ stocks in our 7S 7niverse.
We combine all of the eEuities with a valuation calculation to track marketvaluation figures and use them as a metric for making calls about the overall state of
the market. Two factors can lower these figures a market pullback, or a significantrise in 0=S estimates. iceversa, a significant rally or reduction in 0=S can raise thefigure. Whenever we see overvaluation levels in e&cess of F @A for the overall
universe and/or 5CA for the overvalued by 5$A or more categories, we issue avaluation warning.
We now calculate that @@.#A of stocks are overvalued and 5C.5A of those
stocks are overvalued by 5$A or more. Thus, today we issue a ;)7;T-2% W;R%-%8.-n the past, these sorts of levels have been correlated with market declines. This is atime for investors to make sure they are prepared for a move to the downside by
taking some profits or hedging against a sell off. 2f course, this may be a blip and wemay not see a decline. We operated under a valuation warning for much of 5$#!and 5$#6 during this unprecedented rally.
http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#
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8/9/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Retail Stocks, Valuation Warning,Netflix, and the VZ/AOL Merger
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//Vei#n t# A"uie Net+li3
eri
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8/9/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Retail Stocks, Valuation Warning,Netflix, and the VZ/AOL Merger
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8/9/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Retail Stocks, Valuation Warning,Netflix, and the VZ/AOL Merger
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