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USING R TO CONDUCT HYDROSTATISTICALANALYSIS AT THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT
OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
Robert Burgholzer1 and Lindsay Carr2
1Virginia Department of Environmental Quality2USGS Office of Water Information
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Drought Management Tool
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Outline
Why R?
Components of hydrostats analysis
Website tour
Use case: drought predictions
Future work
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Hydrostatics Project Goals:
Assess Virginia water supply impact andavailability
Communicate data analyses withcolleagues
Why R?
Easily evaluate large hydrologic datasets
Take advantage of existing tools
Analyze data + create beautiful graphs
Current water use (MGD) by HUC8 | VA DEQ State Water Resources Plan 2015
Top: R-Project logo| Bottom: RStudio logo
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Components of Hydrostats Analysis
■ Data sources (NWIS, VaHydro)
■ Batch processing of hydrologic statistics in R
– 7 day minimum average flow
– August Low Flow
– In-stream Flows Incremental Methodology (habitat index)
– Drought predictions: Maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR)
■ Display and visualization of data (R: ggplot2)
■ Content management system
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Virginia DEQ:Drought Management Tool
Content ManagementSystem
R CalculationScripts
R VisualizationScripts
USGS NWISDatabase
August Low Flow7 day min
MLLRIFIM
VaHydromodeling system
R Packages:IHA
PearsonDS
DataSources
R Packages:ggplot2
7 day minAnnually
January 1st
August Low Flowannually on
September 1st
MLLRannually onMarch 1st
IFIMMonthly
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Drought Management Tool Website
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Use case: drought predictions
GOAL4-6 month advanced knowledge of drought flows
■ Better water resource management/planning during drought-prone months
■ Predictions for each specific drought condition:
– emergency: <5%
– warning: <10%
– watch: <25%
METHODtool developed by Sam Austin (USGS VA WSC)
■ Uses maximum likelihood logistic regressions (MLLR)
■ Winter streamflow relates to summer base flow
■ Summer base flow indicates drought in absence of rainfall
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Use case: drought predictions
GOAL4-6 month advanced knowledge of drought flows
■ Better water resource management/planning during drought-prone months
■ Predictions for each specific drought condition:
– emergency: <5%
– warning: <10%
– watch: <25%
METHODtool developed by Sam Austin (USGS VA WSC)
■ Uses maximum likelihood logistic regressions (MLLR)
■ Winter streamflow relates to summer base flow
■ Summer base flow indicates drought in absence of rainfall
Drought model equation for July Watch Condition at USGS 02030000| S. Austin 2014
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Script used for predicting drought in R
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1996: Predicted vs real
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
1996
1995
Winter average flow: 1,429 cfsDrought probability: 3%
297 cfs, 75%
857 cfs, 90%
1305 cfs, 95%
Winterflow
months
Summerdrought-prone
months
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2002: Predicted vs real
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
2002
2001
Winter average flow: 105 cfsDrought probability: 56%
110 cfs, 10%
92 cfs, 10%
83 cfs, 10%
Winterflow
months
Summerdrought-prone
months
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Improving maintainability
• Job scheduler to automatically update hydrostatscalculations
• Pull NWIS data using dataRetrieval R package
• Migrate drought model from SAS to R
• Use version control (Git + GitHub)
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Questions?
Contact
Robert Burgholzer [email protected]
Lindsay Carr [email protected]
Acknowledgements