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US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUPUS CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP
Terms of Reference• Develop a set of metrics to be used for assessing MJO simulation
fidelity and forecast skill. • Develop and coordinate model simulation and prediction experiments, in
conjunction with model-data comparisons, which are designed to better understand the MJO and improve our model representations and forecasts of the MJO.
• Raise awareness of the potential utility of subseasonal and MJO forecasts in the context of the seamless suite of predictions.
• Help to coordinate MJO-related activities between national and international agencies and associated programmatic activities.
• Provide guidance to US CLIVAR and Interagency Group (IAG) on where additional modeling, analysis or observational resources are needed.
Duane Waliser, co-chair Wanqui Wang Ken Sperber, co-chair Chidong ZhangSiegfried Schubert 2-Yr Lifetime Mitch MoncrieffKlaus Weickmann April 2006-> Eric MaloneyBin Wang Leo Donner
Additional/International: F. Vitart, S. Woolnough*, H. Hendon*, W. Higgins, J. Gottschalck, W. Stern * International CLIVAR Support
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Near-Term Goals (~ 1+ YEAR)Near-Term Goals (~ 1+ YEAR)
1)1) Develop (w/ C. Stephens) MJO WG Web Site.Develop (w/ C. Stephens) MJO WG Web Site.
2)2) Metrics for Assessing/Diagnosing Model Metrics for Assessing/Diagnosing Model Simulations of the MJO.Simulations of the MJO.
3)3) Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Forecasts.Forecasts.
4)4) Using the Above, Develop an Experimental/ Using the Above, Develop an Experimental/ Diagnostics Theme for Modeling/Predicting Diagnostics Theme for Modeling/Predicting the MJO in Conjunction With a Workshop.the MJO in Conjunction With a Workshop.
US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUPUS CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP
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Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08
Web Site
Model Exp
Workshop
Forecast Metrics
Simulation Metrics
Telecons
Meetings
Time Line of ActivitiesTime Line of Activities
WCRP/ThorpexTrieste
Convection
AGU Session Subseasonal Working Group
** Meeting **
NCAR/TIIMESRetreat
Convection
Monsoon Related AAMP/ Plans 2007
WGNE Systematic Errors
US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUPUS CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP
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Web Site ResourcesWeb Site Resources
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Web Site ResourcesWeb Site Resources
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MJO Weather-Climate Theme PagesMJO Weather-Climate Theme Pages
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Web Site ResourcesWeb Site Resources
Expected AdditionsExtreme Precip Events Asian Monsoon N. American MonsoonAustralian MonsoonMid-Lat Weather Forecast Skill Angular Momentum (LOD)Africa Impacts
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Web Site ResourcesWeb Site Resources
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• Observations: Satellite and/or Global Reanalysis Fields Satellite: OLR, CMAP, TRMM, Surface Flux Products NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, JRA-25 Basic Quantities: OLR, Precip, U850, U200 Higher Level: 3D structures, Surface Fluxes,
Diabatic Terms• Simple / Novice Measures -> Complex / Expert Measures
Simple : Variance Maps, Spectra, EOFs of Basic Quantities
Higher Level : Wave-Freq, Combined EOF, Life-Cycle Composites
Fluxes, Diabatic Terms, Vertical Structure Mean States and Interannual Variability
• Dissemination• Post calculated metrics from observations on web
site, including likely the data in its final/metric form and maybe example code where possible.
• Apply to a couple models and include results on web site.
• Journal Article?• Apply to models for presentation/discussion at
proposed workshop.
MJO Simulation MetricsMJO Simulation Metrics
Diagnostic Measures / Metrics Based on Observations for Assessing -
and Possibly Diagnosing - Model Simulation Fidelity of the MJO
Expect? Expect? to be to be here by here by DecDec
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• Similar Considerations as with Simulations Metrics• Connect to the Simulation Metrics As Much as Possible• Real-time Constraints Introduce Challenges in
Identifying the MJO• Less Groundwork to Rely On - Will Need to Entrain
Operational Weather and Seasonal Forecast Expertise.• Dissemination - Similar to Simulation Metrics
MJO Forecast MetricsMJO Forecast Metrics
Metrics to Assess in Common Terms MJO Forecast Skill/Predictability and Prediction Targets
Focused on Users and Applications
Expect? to Expect? to be here by be here by Next SummerNext Summer
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• New Thinking: Multi-scale structure, Emphasis on Vertical Structure Multi-scale structure, Emphasis on Vertical Structure Analysis, Utility of Forecast Framework, A Bridge Between Analysis, Utility of Forecast Framework, A Bridge Between Weather-ClimateWeather-Climate
• New Tools & Resources: New Era of Satellite Observations, GOOS/IO Array, Multi-New Era of Satellite Observations, GOOS/IO Array, Multi-Scale Modeling.Scale Modeling.
• Principle Focus Areas:----> Metrics Application & Vertical Structure ->----> Metrics Application & Vertical Structure ->-> Experimental Framework for Multi-Scale Models --->-> Experimental Framework for Multi-Scale Models --->-> Experimental Framework for Forecast Experiments --->-> Experimental Framework for Forecast Experiments --->
Proposed Workshop ThemeProposed Workshop ThemeNew Thinking, Tools & Resources for
Assessing & Improving the MJO
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Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08
Web Site
Model Exp
Workshop
Forecast Metrics
Simulation Metrics
Telecons
Meetings
Time Line of ActivitiesTime Line of Activities
WCRP/ThorpexTrieste
Convection
AGU Session Subseasonal Working Group
** Meeting **
NCAR/TIIMESRetreat
Convection
Monsoon Related AAMP/ Plans 2007
WGNE Systematic Errors
US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUPUS CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP