![Page 1: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
National Renderers Annual Meeting
U.S. and Global Market Situation
Randy Blach
![Page 2: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
~80% U.S. Beef Cowherd~85% U.S. Corn Production
~12% U.S. Beef Cowherd~5% U.S. Corn Production
![Page 3: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
2016 +1,029,000 hdF2017 +669,000 hdF2018 +200,000 hd
![Page 6: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
+5%+6%
+7%
+7%
+8%
+7%
![Page 8: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
+3%
+5% +1.4%
+0.7%+2.6%
+7.8%
![Page 12: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Pork and Poultry
![Page 16: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Pork 2017
Production +2% 25.3 billion pounds
Exports +4% 5.2 billion pounds
Net Supplies +1% 21.2 billion pounds
Per capita supplies +0.5% (+0.3lbs) @ 50.42lbs
![Page 17: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Margins remain positive
![Page 18: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Production up 1.3% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017
![Page 19: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
’15 = 115.4 mil. (+8%)’16F = 117.8 mil. (+2.1%)’17F = 119 mil. (+1%)
![Page 20: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Broilers 2017
Production +2% 41.7 billion pounds
Exports +3.9% 6.7 billion pounds
Net Supplies +1.7% 35.2 billion pounds
Per capita supplies +1% (+0.93lbs) @ 92.6 lbs
![Page 22: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
’16F = 8.74 bil. (+0.6%)’17F = 8.82 bil. (+0.9%)
![Page 23: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
’16F = 241.9 mil. (+4.8%)’17F = 247.3 mil. (+2.2%)
![Page 24: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
+1.4% +1.8%
+1.5%
+1.4%
![Page 25: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Global Situation
![Page 27: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
+1.4%
+2.6%
+1%
![Page 28: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
All regions growing with the exception of China
![Page 29: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
China declines while nearly all other regions are steady to higher
![Page 30: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
World total up about 1.05 mil. in 2016.2017 up 2.9 mil. head
![Page 31: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Commodity Indexes turning higher
![Page 33: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Source: Pacific Exchange, AgriTrends
![Page 34: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
![Page 35: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mil.
Lbs
. CW
E
Month
U.S. Beef ExportsCanada Mexico South Korea Japan Hong Kong Other
Source: USDA
![Page 36: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 37: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Oct. 9, 2015$159/hd.
Sep. 12, 2014$230/hd.
Sept. 30, 2016$162/hd.
![Page 38: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
-36%
-29%
-18%
-41%
![Page 39: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Source: EIA
Inventories remain seasonal and plentiful
![Page 41: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
![Page 43: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: U.S. and Global Market Situation · player in global pork and poultry trade. The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042712/5fa4ec39efd2c7764372d498/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
The U.S. will continue to be the largest beef producing country. The total U.S. herd will be nearly 8 mil head larger by 2018-2019 than it was in 2014. The Australian herd is expanding rapidly now, Brazil will continue to grow.
The U.S. will continue to grow pork and poultry production and be a major player in global pork and poultry trade.
The global slowdown that has crippled export markets the last two years is beginning to look a little more positive.
Currency wars will continue to be front and center as world markets try to kick start there economies.
Grain producers will experience prices that are near breakeven production cost for the next several years.
Most agriculture markets have declined 45-60 percent from the highs earlier in this decade. This price decline should be buying back demand.