URL for .pptx presentations and book list:http://faculty.washington.edu/stevehar/CRI%20China's%20Environment.html
Energy
China’s Environment: Growth, Resources, Politics
Stevan HarrellCreative Retirement Institute
November 2013
Livingstandard
s
Energy Usage: 1750-2000
Coal
An Energy Dependent Society
Steam Steamlocomotive
Powerstations
Internal combustion engine
Airtravel
Populationgrowth
Globalmarkets
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Telecommunications
WWIWWII
Satellite
Environmental issues
Micro-processor
InternetE
ner
gy
Usa
ge
?
Modifiers
Drivers
Cook and Sheath, 1997
LivingStandards
024839-2
Projected World Supplies
19001900 19201920 19401940 19601960 19801980 20002000 20202020 20402040 20602060 20802080 2100
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100100 BILLION
BARRELS
Billion Barrels
of Oil Equivalent
per Year (GBOE)
Billion Barrels
of Oil Equivalent
per Year (GBOE) Natural
GasNatural
Gas
HydroelectricHydroelectric
Crude OilCrude Oil
Solar, W ind Geothermal
Nuclear Electric
1993
CoalCoal
24929
Decreasing
Fossil F
uelsN
ew
Tech
nolo
gies
World Energy Demand
after Edwards,AAPG 8/97
Bioenergy
Energy Efficiency = 1/Energy Intensity
Source: Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World
Comparative Energy Intensity
Source: Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World
China’s Growing Share of World Energy Supply
Source: International Energy Agency World Key Energy Statistics 2013
Uses of Energy in China
Sources of Increased Demand, 2010-2025
• Transport: More and more private cars• Industry: Continued growth, leveling off• Commercial: Office space, and modern
skyscrapers• Residential: Upscaling,
urbanization
Sources of Decreasing Demand, Far Future
• Saturation in transport and residential• Industry moving to high-tech• Efficiency• Switch to renewables• Environmental Kuznets effects?
The Other Side of Affluence: The Environmental Kuznetz Curve
EnvironmentalQuality
EconomicWell-being
China Energy Sources
Fun fact to ponder: 14 of 27 pp of the EIA country report are about oil and gas, even though those together comprise 23% of China’s energy use.
Oil
Source: International Energy Agency World Key Energy Statistics 2013
Sources of Oil Imports
Fun facts to remember:• China still produces most of its own oil, and is exploring offshore for more• China passed the U.S. as the worlds’ largest net importer in May of this year at 6.12 Mbb/d; this has as
much to do with decreases in US imports as as it does with increases in China’s
Total: 5.076 M bbl/day Total: 4.747 M bbl/day
Natural Gas
Shale Gas
Source: ARI via Quartz
Source: via Quartz
Estimated reserves: US 665Tcf China 1115 Tcf US 19Tm3 China 31Tm3
2013 Production: 100Mm3=.0001Tm3
2015 Target: 6.5Bm3=.0065Tm3
Partner: Royal Dutch Shell
Obstacles: Technology (but Shell has it!) Water: Serious impingement on supplies
Infrastructure: Needs to be built Location: Natural Hazard Zone
2009
Electricity by Fuel Type
Fun fact to note: Wind power tripled from 2009 to 2011, but it didn’t stop the growth of coal power
CoalUPDATE
Coal Reserves and Consumption
China has about 25-30 years of proven coal reserves
Increases in Coal Consumption to 2011
Coal and Pollution
Coal and Pollution
10 a.m. today!
Peak Coal in China Soon?
Something to think about: Implications for Northwest Coal Exports• Coal trains and traffic delays• Spilled coal • Coal dust near tracks• Few jobs created• Facilities may sit empty
China’s Clean Energy Goals
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/mdavidson/clean_energy_standard_how_chin.html
Electricity Type 2012 Installed Capacity
2020 Goals
Total Electric 1104 GW 1800 GW
Wind 75 GW 200 GW
Offshore Wind 389 MW
Solar 7 GW 50 GW
Nuclear 34 GW 70 GW
Hydro 249 GW 420 GW
Therefore, fossil 739 GW 1090 GW
The biggest one: Sanxia
Why they built it National Pride
Hydro Power
Flood Control
Navigation
In January 2000, a senior Chinese official in Kunming expressed to me what I believe to be a deeply rooted conviction in China: “We are sensitive to considerations of the environment and the importance of the conservation of nature, but we must have power; coal is dirty, water clean and abundant,a rich and unused resource; we have no alternative.” In all other sectors of China’s economy Maoism has been displaced by market principles,but not in the hydro-sector.
Gavan McCormack, “Water Margins:competing paradigms in China, 2001
Problems: RelocationQuality of the land available
New ecotechnical adaptationLack of education for urban life
Dialect differencesInsufficient
Corruption and official indifference
funds
Problems: Sedimentation changes since 2003
Sedimentation changes since 2003
• More is building up behind the dam (max depth 56m)
• Downstream reaches have changed from deposition to erosion
• The Yangtze delta has gone from expansion to contraction
Landslides
2009
2003
Problems: Biodiversity Loss
There are still more dams….
Nu (Salween) River Lancang (Mekong) River
UPDATE
Lancang Projects
Nu River Projects
Lack of electricity in rural areasFrequent blackoutsIncreased reliance on coalPossible belligerence over oil
Problems Caused by Energy Shortages in China
What are the Environmental Costs of More Dams?
You be the judge:
Vs.Deprivation of Downstream peoplesLoss of BiodiversityLoss of Scenic BeautyAll the problems of relocationPossible disasters
Carbon Emissions
Energy Solutions and their Problems
• Energy efficiency– Gains to be made– Requires incentives– Requires institution
building– In the absence of
technological breakthrough, will not be enough
• Oil – Short supply– Greenhouse gas– Air Pollution– No good alternative for
transportation• Coal
– Greenhouse gas– Air pollution
• Hydroelectric– Supply limited– Agriculture land and habitat loss
• Nuclear– Dangerous– No domestic fuel source
Energy Sources
What Needs to be Done?
• Develop long-term sustainable energy strategy, including incentives for clean and renewable sources
• Increase funding for environmental regulation• Develop price structure for resources that will
promote conservation• Make environmental protection a primary element
of cadre evaluations• Allow citizen groups to form and lobby for
environmental reform