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two factors of Bt-cotton diffusion in Yangtze River Valley (China)
Michel FOK ([email protected])
Naiyin XU ([email protected])
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New paradox• Large adoption in spite of limited specificg p p p
advantages• 2 explanation factorsp
1 technical & 1 economical
Chocking message?g g• Not for Yangtze River Valley (YaRV)…• …while information available for Yellow River …while information available for Yellow River
Valley
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A specific survey in 2005 in Jiangsu Province (although imperfect)Province (although imperfect)3 data sets seldom exploited• Area data of the National Centre of Extension• Area data of the National Centre of Extension• Data of the Yangtze River Valley multi-location
varietal experiment networkvarietal experiment network• Data of the National Service for registration of
varietiesvarieties
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P iPresentation sequence• Features of widespread adoption• Indication of limited extent of specific• Indication of limited extent of specific
advantages• Bt adoption favoured by pre-existing techniquesp y p g q• Adoption favoured by the institutional framework
for seed market development3 papers for more information3 papers for more information
Fok, M. and N. XU (in press). "Intégration technologique et développement du secteur semencier dans la diffusion du coton-Bt, Vallée du Fleuve Yangtze (Chine)." Economie Rurale.No. 317 (may-june 2010) http://www.revues.org/3063Fok M and N Xu (in press) "Libéralisation et régulation des marchés de variétés et de Fok, M. and N. Xu (in press). Libéralisation et régulation des marchés de variétés et de semences : analyse du cas du coton-Bt en Chine et dans les pays émergents." Cah. Agric. http://www.john-libbey-eurotext.fr/fr/revues/agro_biotech/agr/e-docs/00/04/51/80/article.phtmlXu, N. and M. Fok (in press). "Le marché des variétés de coton-Bt : analyse de la situation
Chi d ti i t ti l " C h A i htt // j h libben Chine dans une perspective internationale." Cah. Agric. http://www.john-libbey-eurotext.fr/fr/revues/agro_biotech/agr/e-docs/00/04/51/A1/article.phtml
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Large diffusion of Bt cotton in variousregionsregionsSpecifity of YaRV in large adoption of hybrid varietieshybrid varietiesVery frequent combination of hybrid and Bt t itBt traits
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120
%
100
60
80
40
60
20
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Jiangsu YaRV Hebei China
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80
90
%
70
80
50
60
30
40
20
30
0
10
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Jiangsu YaRV China
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100%
120%
%
80%
40%
60%
20%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Jiangsu YaRVJiangsu YaRV
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Seed cost US$/ha
Hyb & Bt Average (std dev) 98.6 (21.7)
Number data 109
N H b & B A ( d d ) 6 9 (1 6)Non-Hyb & Bt Average (std dev) 6.9 (1.6)
Number data 10
Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev) 84 5 (10 4)Hyb & non Bt Average (std dev) 84.5 (10.4)
Number data 3
Non-Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev) 7.7 (0.5)
Number data 4
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Number insecticide sprays
Hyb & Bt Average (std dev) 12.4 (4.4)
Number data 77
N H b & B A ( d d )Non-Hyb & Bt Average (std dev)
Number data
Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev) 16 7 (5 8)Hyb & non Bt Average (std dev) 16.7 (5.8)
Number data 3
Non-Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev)
Number data
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Insecticide costUS$/ha
Hyb & Bt Average (std dev) 85.0 (33.5)
Number data 77
N H b & B A ( d d )Non-Hyb & Bt Average (std dev)
Number data
Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev) 141 9 (51 7)Hyb & non Bt Average (std dev) 141.9 (51.7)
Number data 3
Non-Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev)
Number data
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Seedcotton yieldkg/ha
Hyb & Bt Average (std dev) 4392 (699)
Number data 140
N H b & B A ( d d ) 3234 (440)Non-Hyb & Bt Average (std dev) 3234 (440)
Number data 28
Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev)Hyb & non Bt Average (std dev)
Number data
Non-Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev) 3459 (419)
Number data 5
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Gross incomeUS$/ha
Hyb & Bt Average (std dev) 2329 (286)
Number data 140
N H b & B A ( d d ) 1600 (286)Non-Hyb & Bt Average (std dev) 1600 (286)
Number data 28
Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev)Hyb & non Bt Average (std dev)
Number data
Non-Hyb & non-Bt Average (std dev) 1671 (286)
Number data 5
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Seldom attention to pre-existingtechniques prior to Bt cotton introductiontechniques prior to Bt cotton introductionPre-existing breakthrough of transplanting and commercial release of transplanting and commercial release of hybrid varietiesBt i t d ti f i d f d b Bt introduction favoring and favored by hybrid variety development• Technically easy• Economically cheap
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Bt cotton release: factor of seed marketmodernisationFavorable institutional framework since year20002000• Financial incentives to breeders• Effectiveness to induce an active seed marketec e e o ce c e ee e
Enhanced or excessive competition• …From farmers’ seeds…From farmers seeds• Turned around by the option for hybrid varieties
Compatible with the process of technological integrationp p g g
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Period No Varieties with areas Period No. Varieties with areas recorded by Nat. Centre
of extension
1990 1999 1991990-1999 199
2000-2006 372
Number of breeding organisations having submitted varieties for national registration;
HQ at Firms Coll/Univ ResearchInstitutes
Ag. Services
Total
Number of breeding organisations having submitted varieties for national registration; 1999-2007
Counties 9 1 11 1 22
Districts 35 1 31 1 68
Provinces 17 11 26 3 57
Central 2 1 6 9
Total 63 14 74 5 156Total 63 14 74 5 156
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Varieties submitted for national registration 1999-2007
HQ L ti 1999 2000 2004 2007
Varieties submitted for national registration, 1999-2007
HQ Location of breedingorganisations
1999 2000 2004 2007
All China Number varieties 9 27 73 113
% Hyb &Bt 0% 26% 30% 58%
YaRV Number varieties 4 10 16 34YaRV Number varieties 4 10 16 34
% Hyb &Bt 0% 30% 44% 88%
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New Concept of Techno. Integration, fromseveral levels of synergyseveral levels of synergy• Transplanting/hybrid• Transplanting/hybrid/BtTransplanting/hybrid/Bt• Transplanting/hybrid/Bt/seed market
developmentdevelopment
• Concept possibly valid beyond YaRVC t b bl lid b d Bt tt• Concept probably valid beyond Bt-cotton• Case of RR soybean and no-tiilage
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Reduction of Bt effectiveness• does not imply quick reduction of Bt-cotton use
Q ti i th f i f i i Bt tt dQuestioning the fairness of pricing Bt cotton seeds• Abusive to price seeds like if the observed effects only derive
from Bt traitfrom Bt trait
Worth verifying the accurateness of the concept of techno integration in other conditions.g