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1-) TGB GRAIN PURCHASES AND PRICES
A- GRAIN
According to TurkStat’s data, in our country, 19.674 thousand tons of wheat, 7.250 thousand tons of
barley, 366 thousand tons of rye, 204 thousand tons of oat and 93 thousand tons of triticale were produced in
2010. In 2011, 21.800 thousand tons of wheat, 7.600 thousand tons of barley, 366 thousand tons of rye, 218
thousand tons of oat and 104 thousand tons of triticale have been produced. While total production of the
mentioned products was 27.587 thousand tons in 2010, it has been 30.097 thousand tons in 2011 with an
increase of 9,1 %.
2012 period harvest has begun by 10th May 2012, markets have been monitored closely and, with
beginning of the harvest, purchases by undertaking have begun on 31st May 2012. On 18th June 2012, wheat
intervention purchase prices have been announced as given in the below table and the wheat purchases have
begun as of 19th June 2012. Until 1st July 2012, 153.638 tons of wheat have been purchased by cash. In
addition, 6.695 tons of wheat have been purchased as consignee and they have been stored. For barley, rye,
triticale and oat, no intervention purchase price has been announced and purchases by undertaking are in
progress.
2012 PERIOD TGB INTERVENTION PURCHASE PRICES (TL/TON)
Table:1
B- MAIZE
Maize production, which was 4,31 million tons in 2010, has been 4,2 million tons in 2011 with a 2,6 %
decrease. (TÜİK)
Information about TGB 2011 purchases;
2011 maize harvest began on 15th August 2011. Because the market prices are in favour of the
producers at 600-650 TL/Ton level, it wasn’t seen necessary to announce an intervention purchase price.
However, on the purpose of meeting the storage need of the market, making 30 % advance payment to the
demanding producers and providing the oppurtunity of using credit with letter of commitment to all of the
NUMBER: 2012/7 GRAIN NEWSLETTER 17.07.2012
TYPE INTERVENTION PURCHASE PRICE
DURUM WHEAT
DURUM WHEAT 705
LOW QUALITY DURUM WHEAT 575
MILLING WHEAT
ANATOLIAN WHITE AND RED HARD WHEAT 665
OTHER RED WHITE WHEAT 635
FEED WHEAT 555
TURKISH GRAIN BOARD
GENERAL DIRECTORATE
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sector, as of 19th August 2011 purchases as consignee started at the intervention purchase price of the
previous year.
With the beginning of the 2nd crop maize harvest, because of the decreasing trend of the market
prices at 490-539 TL/Ton level, TGB announced the intervention purchase price as 540 TL/ton on 17th
November 2011 to protect the producers. Within this context, by 30th June 2012, 47.632 tons have been
purchased by cash.
25.7 million Turkish Liras, value of the purchased maize, have been transfered to accounts of the
producers totally. Purchases are in progress.
Purchases as consignee have been completed by 31st December 2011 and 128.177 tons of maize have
been purchased as consignee. Of the maize purchased as consignee, 127.782 tons have been returned, 395
tons have been turned into purchase by cash.
Information about 2012 maize plantings in Turkey;
1st crop and 2nd crop maize plantings have been completed and the crop progress is good.
By 2nd July 2012, while differing among the regions, the market price of 14 % moisture maize is at
570 – 620 TL/ton range.
C- PADDY
While paddy production was 860 thousand tons in 2010, it has been 900 thousand tons in 2011, with
an increase of around 4,7 % compared to previous year (TÜİK). Rice equivalent of Turkish paddy production is
about 540 thousand tons. Our country’s annual rice consumption is about 600 thousand tons.
Information about TGB 2011 purchases;
2011 paddy harvest started as of 13th September 2011. TGB did not see it necessary to announce
paddy intervention purchase prices because with beginning of the harvest, the market prices of 60 % yield
Osmancık type, at 1,050 – 1,100 TL/ton range, developed in favor of the producers. However, until it would be
seen necessary to announce intervention purchase price, on the purpose of meeting the storage need of the
market, making 30 % advance payment to the demanding producers and providing the oppurtunity of using
credit with letter of commitment to all of the sector, on 28th September 2011 TGB started the purchases as
consignee at the prices which were applied at purchases as consignee in the previous year.
As the paddy market prices fell to 1,000 – 1,040 TL/ton levels by the completion of the harvest, TGB
has started intervention purchases on 4th November 2011 to protect paddy production level and the producers.
Paddy intervention purchase prices applied to product types in 2011 purchase period are listed in below
table.
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GROUP TYPE PURCHASE
CODE
PRICE
(TL/TON)
LONG GRAIN
BALDO 3570 1.200
ROCCA 3560
1.060
OSMANCIK-97, DRAGO, KORAL, RİBE, SÜREK-95,
NEĞİŞ, GÖNEN, BEŞER, KIRKPINAR, EDİRNE,
HALİLBEY, ECE, DURAĞAN, KIZILTAN, KARADENİZ,
TUNCA, GALA, OTHER LONG GRAIN PADDY
3550
MIDDLE GRAIN
VENERİA 3540
950 ARCO, CALROSE, KARACADAĞ, MARATELLİ,
AKÇELTİK, ŞUMNU, SARIÇELTİK, SERHAT-92,
KIZILIRMAK, OTHER MIDDLE GRAIN PADDY
3530
SHORT GRAIN KRASNODARSKY-421 3520
870 MISIR PADDY AND OTHER SHORT GRAIN PADDY 3510
By 30th June 2012, 12.849 tons have been purchased by cash and 3.661 tons have been purchased as
consignee.
Of 3.661 tons of paddy purchased as consignee, 3.395 tons have been returned and 266 tons have
been turned into purchase by cash.
The value of the purchased 12.849 tons of paddy is 12,4 million Turkish Liras and it has been
transfered to bank accounts of the producers totally.
Information about 2012 paddy plantings in Turkey;
While differing among the regions, paddy plantings in our country generally begin in the second half of
April and it is completed at the end of May.
However, because it has been cold in this year, plantings begun in the first days of May and they have
been completed by the second week of June.
There’s no problem at the crop progress in our country.
By 2nd July 2012, while differing among the regions, the market price of 60 % yield Osmancık paddy
is at 1.050 – 1.100 TL/ton range and market price of Baldo paddy is at 1.350 – 1.450 TL/ton range.
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2-) FORMS, TERMS AND PRICES OF TGB INTERNAL SALES AND STOCK EXCHANGE PRICES
A-) FORMS AND TERMS OF INTERNAL SALES
- Our Sales Against Cash Price:
In our sales against cash price; the commodity prices deposited by the demanders are taken into TGB
“Received Order Advances” accounts. In case of any changes in TGB prices or fees, these differences are
reflected to undelivered products exactly. In case the purchaser desists from the purchase, balance product
price is returned to the purchaser. Furthermore in case the sales are terminated by TGB for any reason during
delivery, the prices of undelivered products are returned to the purchasers upon request or delivery continues
at prevailing price, fee and terms upon re-opening of the sales.
Depositing of the product price into TGB bank account does not mean that sale is accepted.
Furthermore depositing the amount into bank account without information of the Office does not mean of a
contractual or implied acceptance.
By 1st June 2012 our sales (except the rice sales) have been completed.
All the rice in our stocks is open to the sale against cash price without any discrimination between
persons and/or companies.
B) INTERNAL SALES PRICES
Our rice sales prices are given in below Table: 3
RICE SALES PRICES
TYPE CODE NO PACKED 5 KG (¨)
PACKED 2 KG (¨)
PACKED 1 KG (¨)
Import Medium Grain Rice (Egypt) 3697 8.00 3.20 1.60
Other Long Grain (Osmancık) 3651 11.50 4.60 2.30
Long Grain (Baldo) 3671 15.00 6.00 3.00
NOTE: Including packing costs, manipulation, additional transportation costs and VAT, excluding other costs.
Table:3
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C) STOCK EXCHANGE VOLUMES AND PRICES
The wheat, barley, rye and oats, which are traded at exchange, are followed from Eskisehir, Konya, Polatlı,
Corum, Bandırma and Edirne stock exchanges by TGB, whereas corn is followed from Adana stock exchange on
daily basis. Average prices of June are given in below Table: 4.
COMPARISON OF STOCK EXCHANGE PRICES
PRODUCT NAME
STOCK EXCHANGES TGB
SALES PRICE
ESKİŞEHİR KONYA POLATLI ÇORUM EDİRNE ADANA BANDIRMA TL/Ton
Price TL/Ton
Trade qty.
(Ton)
Price TL/Ton
Trade qty.
(Ton)
Fiyat TL/Ton
Trade qty.
(Ton)
Price TL/Ton
Trade qty.
(Ton)
Price TL/Ton
Trade qty.
(Ton)
Price TL/Ton
Trade qty.
(Ton)
Price TL/Ton
Trade qty.
(Ton) June
DURUM WHEAT
- - 648 2.012 - - 567 14 - - - - - - -
ANATOLIAN RED HARD
MILLING WHEAT
598 98 652 683 668 2.123 - - - - - - - - -
OTHER WHITE MILLING WHEAT
572 210 608 370 - - - - - - - - 596 1.820 -
OTHER RED MILLING WHEAT
595 820 630 692 624 1.021 - - 622 1.805 - - - - -
BARLEY 572 744 562 1.673 562 1.032 540 39 - - - - - - -
RYE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OATS 560 11 570 36 550 43 - - - - - - - - -
CORN - - - - - - - - - - 576 23.200 - - -
RICE* 1.780 2.300
ROUGH RICE* 1.081 -
* Rice and rough rice prices belong to Osmancık type and are average of wholesale prices in free market.
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3-) WORLD CROP MARKETS ( in accordance with the montly report of International Grain Council – IGC
dated 02.07.2012 and number 473.)
PRODUCTION
WHEAT
In spite of a small increase in harvested area, an anticipated fall in average yields from the previous
season’s record is forecast to cut the 2012/13 world wheat crop by 4%, to 665m. tons. This is 6m. tons lower
than last month’s forecast, including reduced projections for Russia, Ukraine, Argentina and Australia, only
partly offset by improved prospects in Canada, the US, China and Algeria.
Widespread rains in the EU aided crop development in the past month, notably in western and
northern areas, but Spain and parts of central Europe remained overly dry. Improved crop prospects in
Bulgaria, France, Italy and Sweden are partly countered by downward revisions in Poland, Romania and Spain,
and the production forecast is 0.9m tons higher than last month, at 132.1m. (137.6m.), including 124.5m.
(129.4m.) of common wheat. Unfavourable growing conditions for much of this season are reflected in the
lowest harvested area in five years, at 25.0m. ha (26.0m.).
In Kazakhstan, June rains have alleviated the drought conditions in the major northern growing areas,
boosting spring crop development. Nevertheless, the area is stil projected 2% lower than last year, at 13.5m.
ha., and with yields expected to be close to average, production is forecast to fall by one-third from last year’s
record, to 15.0m. tons. In western Russia, hot and dry weather continued to stress crops in the Volga District
and southern regions, but conditions in central and northern areas remained favourable. Rains brought some
relief to spring wheat areas east of the Urals. Because of lower than expected spring wheat plantings, especially
in western Siberia, the total harvested area is reduced by 1.2m. ha. from the last report, to 25.3m. (24.9m.).
This, together with lower yields because of dryness in the south, is reflected in a 6.0m. tons cut in the
production forecast, to 49.0m. (56.2m.).
In Ukraine, crops in south-central and eastern regions continued to suffer from dry and hot weather,
while heavy rains boosted soil moisture across western areas. Adverse autumn weather and an early spring are
expected to reduce the harvested area by one-third, to 4.8m. ha. (6.7m.), and with yields forecast to decline,
production is placed at a nine-year low of 13.0m. tons (22.3m.).
Cool and showery weather across Canada’s western Prairies slowed the final stages of wheat sowing.
Nevertheless, planted area is forecast to rise by 11%, to 9.6m. ha., with the biggest increase in durum, up by
17%, reflecting low stocks and better sowing conditions than last year in Saskatchewan. With other spring
wheat area projected to increase by 8%, and assuming both normal growing conditions and average yields,
production is forecast at 26.5m. tons (25.3m.), 0.5m. higher than last month.
In the US, rains were favourable in several droughtaffected areas, including key production regions of
the central and southern Plains and parts of the Midwest. The harvest made rapid progress, reaching the half-
way point by the middle of June. Total wheat plantings are officially estimated to be 3% higher than last year,
at 22.7m. ha., including 16.9m. (16.4m.) of winter wheat. The durum area is placed at 0.9m. ha., a 61% rise,
mainly in North Dakota, where the area is expected to have doubled from the previous year’s lower than
normal level. Based on average abandonment and taking into account improved yield prospects for both winter
and spring sown crops, the production forecast is raised by 1.5m. tons, to 60.5m. (54.4m.). Drier weather
helped planting to accelerate in Argentina, with about 25% completed by mid-June. However, overly dry
conditions in some areas contributed to lower planting expectations than before, now placed 16% below the
previous year, at 3.8m. ha., also reflecting competition for area from more profitable crops. The crop forecast is
trimmed by 1.0m. tons, to 11.5m. (13.4m.).
In China, hot and dry weather in the Yangtze Valley and the North China Plain was beneficial for crop
maturation and aided harvesting, while rains in north-eastern regions improved conditions for spring wheat.
With the total area and yields expected to be similar to last year, production is forecast at 117.0m. tons
(117.9m.), up 1.0m. from previously. In India, with harvesting completed, production is estimated at a record
90.0m. tons (86.9m.), owing to the largest-ever area of 29.6m. ha. (29.4m.).
Warm and dry weather accelerated harvesting in Iran and Syria, with production forecast at 14.0m.
tons (13.5m.) and 3.7m. (3.9m.), respectively. After several weeks of wet weather, warm and dry conditions
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were favourable for crop maturation and early harvesting in Turkey’s major-producing area of the Anatolian
Plateau. The wheat area is forecast 6% higher, at 8.2m. ha., and assuming average yields, production is
projected at 18.5m. tons (18.8m.), unchanged from previously. In North Africa, larger crops are being
harvested in Algeria and Tunisia, at 4.0m. tons (2.8m.) and 1.6m. tons (1.3m.), respectively. In contrast,
drought has slashed yield prospects in Morocco, with production projected to fall by some 40%, to 3.5m. tons.
In Australia, planting was aided by recent rains, helping to relieve the drought for winter crops in Western
Australia and replenish soil moisture in the southeast. However, the dry start to the season cuts the
area forecast by 0.3m. ha. from before, to 13.4m. Weaker anticipated prices contribute to the 5% fall in
projected area compared with last year. Together with a droughtrelated drop in yields, production is forecast to
drop by 19% from last year’s record, to 24.0m. tons (29.5m.). Planting is underway in South Africa, aided by
ample moisture supplies. Production is forecast marginally lower than last year, at 1.9m. tons (2.0m.), due to a
slight decline in area.
MAIZE
Given increased plantings, particularly in North America and China, and higher yields on average,
2012/13 world maize production is expected to be a record 917m. tons (868m.). The global area is forecast at
a record of 171.1m. ha. (168.3m.), while average yields are expected to increase to 5.4 tons/ha. (5.2
tons). The main gains are projected in the US, Argentina and China.
In the US, drought conditions with above-average temperatures continued to spread across most of
the major corn-producing regions of the country in the southern and eastern Corn Belt, especially in southern
Illinois and Indiana, stressing the crop as it enters the sensitive reproductive stage of development. Excessive
heat was recently reported across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio. This is reflected in the crop
progress reports, where the percentage of the crop in good/excellent condition declined to 56% (68%) as at 24
June, compared to 72% at the beginning of the month.
The planted area is officially placed at 39.0m. ha. (37.2m.), up 4.9% from last year and the highest
since 1937, responding to higher prices, and the harvested area is forecast at about 36.1m. ha., 6.2% higher
than last year. However, less than favourable weather conditions have reduced yield prospects. This
month, the forecast yield has been reduced to 9.7 tons/ha., below the 10-year trend, and broadly in line
with the five- year average. The production forecast has consequently been trimmed by 5.0m. tons. Output is
still expected to reach a record 350.0m. tons, 12% higher than in 2011/12, but the risks are to the downside.
In Canada, warm weather with showers inOntario, the major-producing province, has benefited crop
development. Plantings are expected to increase by 21% to a record 1.5m. ha. and the production forecast has
been increased by 0.5m. tons, to 12.5m. (10.7m.).
Widespread rains and seasonable temperatures have recently improved crop prospects across much of
the EU. Taking into account replanting of damaged winter grains, the maize area is projected to increase by
some 7%, to about 9.5m. ha., well above the five-year average of 8.5m. However, yields are expected to
return to average from the previous year’s high levels and production is forecast to increase only marginally, to
65.9m. tons (65.2m.), up 0.5m. from last month, the second-largest on record. Farmers in Ukraine planted
31% more maize this year, estimated at 4.6m. ha. (3.5m.), reflecting solid export demand and replanting of
frost-damaged winter grains. With yields expected to be lower than last year’s, but still above average,
production is forecast at a record 24.0m. tons (22.8m.).
In China, after abundant rains in May, hot and dry weather in the Yangtze Valley and the North China
Plain was beneficial for crop maturation. Recent rainfall has improved growing conditions in north-eastern
regions, although more rain is needed in parts of the North China Plain to replenish irrigation reservoirs. With
more farmers switching away from soyabeans, the maize area forecast is increased by 0.4m. ha., to 34.8m.
(33.4m.), the highest ever. Assuming slightly above average yields, the crop projection has been increased by
6.0m. tons, to a record 195.0m. (191.8m.).
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In the southern hemisphere, where the main planting season will start in September, farmers in
Argentina are expected to further increase plantings, and assuming average yields, recovering from the 15-
year low of 2011/12, production is forecast at a record 25.0m. tons (20.0m.). Provided weather patterns are
normal, production in South Africa is forecast to rebound to 12.5m. tons (11.4m.), based on higher yields.
BARLEY
The 2012/13 global barley output forecast has been reduced by 3.2m. tons this month, to 135.0m.
(134.4m.), following crop downgrades in Russia, Ukraine and Australia, which were only partly offset by upward
revisions for the EU and Argentina. This is still a 0.5% year-on-year increase in production as plantings have
expanded. The global harvested area is forecast up 8%, at 53.7m. ha. (49.7m.), in line with the five-year
average, with increased area in the EU, the CIS, North America and Argentina.
Widespread rains and warm weather across most of the EU have benefited spring crop development.
Consequently, frost-related winter barley losses, notably in France, Germany and Poland, have been more than
compensated by increased planting of spring varieties. The total EU barley area is now estimated to be up 4%
year-on-year at 12.4m. ha. (11.9m.), including 8.1m. (7.2m.) of spring barley. The EU production forecast is
also lifted by 0.6m. tons from last month, to 53.0m. (51.7m.), largely reflecting better prospects in France.
However, production remains below-average for the third consecutive year due to relatively low yields.
In Russia, where the crop is predominantly spring-sown, planting is expected to expand by nearly 20%, to
about 9.2m.ha., to satisfy growing domestic feed requirements. Rainfall has improved soil moisture across
western Siberia, but southern regions in western parts continued to experience warmer than average weather.
The production forecast incorporates lower yield prospects, and is reduced by 1.0m. tons, to 15.5m.
(16.9m.). In Ukraine, severe drought conditions in southern growing areas have affected the main spring crop
and, despite an increase in area to 4.0m. ha. (3.7m.), production is now expected to be broadly unchanged
year-on-year at 9.0m. tons (9.1m.), 2.0m. lower than forecast in May.
Canada’s barley plantings are expected to rise by 23%, to about 3.2m. ha., owing to more favourable
planting conditions and attractive prices. Assuming average abandonment and yields, production is projected
at 9.0m. tons, 15% higher than in 2011/12. Farmers in the US have also increased barley plantings by over
40%, to 1.5m. ha. (1.0m.) due to better sowing conditions in North Dakota, a key producing state.
Assuming average yields, production is forecast to be up 38% in 2012/13, at 4.7m. tons. Argentina’s output is
forecast to increase by 27%, to 5.2m. tons, following an expansion in area to 1.4m. ha. (1.1m.) in response to
growing demand. In contrast, Australia’s barley area is expected to decrease slightly, to 3.9m. ha. (4.0m.),
in favour of more profitable canola, with production down 13%, at 7.5m. tons, a 0.7m. reduction from the May
forecast.
CONSUMPTION
WHEAT
The forecast for world wheat consumption in 2012/13 is up by 1m. tons from last month, to 682m.,
but still 7m. under the estimate for the year before. While global food and industrial uses are expected to
increase, feed demand is forecast to decline from the past year’s record, curtailed by larger maize
availabilities. Nevertheless, feed use is placed 2.6m. tons higher than previously, at 131.4m. (143.1m.),
mainly due to an upward revision for China, to 23.5m. (22.5m.).
MAIZE
Driven by projected strong growth in feed demand, world maize consumption in 2012/13 is forecast to
increase by 39m. tons, to 910m. This month’s forecast is 8m. tons higher than before, mainly due to revised
9
forecasts for China, but also increased consumption projections for the EU and Brazil. Although the US crop
may not reach previously projected levels, supplies are expected to be larger than in 2011/12 and, with good
harvests expected in Ukraine and Russia, more comfortable world exportable availabilities are likely to pressure
prices, with some compound feed producers likely to switch back into maize from wheat.
Overall feed use is forecast at 520m. tons (489m.), up 5m. from last month. Underpinned by rising
demand for animal proteins, feed maize use in China is forecast to increase to 132m. tons (126m.). The
ongoing industrialisation of China’s livestock industry will also boost demand for maize and other energy feeds.
After recent very strong growth, demand for feed-grade wheat may increase at a relatively slower pace, which
could also promote maize use. In the EU, relatively cheaper prices could result in maize feed demand rising to
52.4m. tons, up 1.6m. from 2011/12. US feed/residual use is also forecast to be sharply higher, at 130.0m.
tons (115.6m.). Demand from poultry and pig producers is likely to be firmer, and the “residual” element,
which includes unspecified uses and waste, as well as any inaccuracies of other components of the balance
sheet, also tends to rise with larger supply. Global industrial consumption is forecast at a record 256m. tons
(250m.). Due to increased forecasts for starch production in China and Brazil, as well as use for fuel ethanol in
the EU, the projection is up almost 3m. tons compared to late May. Given projections for a drop in gasoline
consumption and uncertain export prospects, maize used for the production of fuel ethanol in the US is
forecast to dip to 127.0m. tons (128.3m.).
BARLEY
World barley consumption in 2012/13 is expected to fall slightly to 133.8m. tons (135.6m.),
reflecting reduced availability in the Black Sea region and Australia, as well as a fall in demand for feed barley.
Global feed use is seen lower, at 88.0m. tons (90.2m.), with a notable decline in Saudi Arabia due to
substitution with other feed crops. In contrast, world industrial demand is forecast to grow by 0.7%, to 29.1m.
tons due to increased demand in China, including the brewing industry.
STOCKS
WHEAT
This month’s increase in forecast global use, together with lower beginning stocks and reduced
production expectations, lead to a 9m. tons cut in the world wheat carryover projection for the end of 2012/13,
to a four- year low of 182m. This is down by 17m. tons compared with the estimate for the year before, mainly
reflecting a drop in the eight major exporters. Their combined stocks are forecast to fall by 12.3m. tons, to
58.3m., the lowest in five years. The figure is 4.1m. tons lower than last month, including downward
adjustments for Australia and Kazakhstan, where smaller harvests will likely see a contraction from high
opening inventories. A reduced production forecast in Russia is only partly offset by lower domestic use and
exports. Given a tighter outlook for Black Sea availability, higher anticipated export demand contributes to
slightly lower forecasts for the US, Canada and the EU.
MAIZE
While cumulative carryover stocks at the end of 2012/13 (respective marketing years) are forecast to
increase for the first time in four years, to 137m. tons (129m.), the estimate is down by 4m. tons compared to
last month. Forecast 2012/13 carryovers for the US and Brazil have both been reduced, by 5.0m. tons and
1.5m., respectively, and the projection for the four major exporters (Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and the
US) is 6.6m. lower, at 46.5m. (38.9m.). While the still record crop is forecast to lift end-of-season US
inventories to 31.8m. tons, up 47% from the very low level in 2011/12, the stocks to disappearance ratio
(including exports) of 9% would still lag the 11% five-year average.
10
BARLEY
As a result of marginally higher production and a small decline in consumption, carryover stocks are
expected to rise to 28.6m. tons at the end of 2012/13, 4.4% higher year-on-year. However, the world market
will still remain relatively tight, with stocks below the five-year average of 31.1m. tons. Given higher output,
closing stocks will likely rise in the EU, the US and Argentina, but will fall in Ukraine and Australia where output
is expected to decline.
TRADE
WHEAT
The forecast for world wheat trade in 2012/13 is slightly lower than last month, at 134.6m. tons,
and sharply below the previous year’s estimated record of 143.5m. Most of the fall from last year is due to
smaller anticipated purchases of feed wheat, although at a projected 13.1m. tons (18.0m.), trade is placed
1.8m. higher than previously and well above the longer term average of around 7m. While greater availability
of maize is expected to limit imports of wheat for feed, favourable prices may prompt buyers in some countries
to maintain purchases at higher than normal levels. The increase in the projection of feed wheat trade is
outweighed by lower than previously forecast milling wheat shipments, including to North Africa. Given large
carryover stocks and a bigger domestic harvest, the forecast of imports by Egypt is reduced by 0.7m. tons, to
10.1m. (10.8m.). Better than expected harvest results in Algeria cut the import forecast by 0.7m. tons, to
5.1m. (6.2m.).
Export surpluses in the Black Sea region are not expected to be as high in 2012/13, including a notable
decline in Russia. Due to the deteriorating production outlook, the country’s exports are placed 5.0m. tons
lower than last month, at 12.0m. (21.5m.). Combined shipments by Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are
forecast at 25.0m. tons (36.5m.), representing 19% of projected global trade, compared with an estimated
25% in 2011/12. Due to reduced Black Sea competition, exports by the EU are raised by 2.1m. tons from
before, to 18.1m., the same as last year. This is also expected to strengthen demand for North American
supplies; the forecast for US exports (July/June) is increased by 1.0m. tons from before, to 32.0m. (27.5m.),
while the projection for Canada is lifted by 0.6m., to 18.6m. (18.3m.). Even though Australia’s harvest is
revised lower, large carryover stocks will help to limit any fall in exports, forecast at 21.5m. tons (22.5m.).
MAIZE
Solid feed demand is forecast to lift global trade to new record highs in 2012/13 (July/June), with most
major importers expected to increase purchases. At 102.7m. tons, trade is forecast to be almost 10% higher
than in 2011/12 and 12% above the previous five-year average. The country forecasts are largely unchanged
from last month, except for the EU, where expected imports are placed 1.0m. tons higher, at 7.0m. (4.8m.).
Demand from feed and ethanol producers is expected to be firm and, with good supplies of
competitively priced maize from Ukraine, Russia and Serbia, imports are likely to increase. Assuming domestic
prices remain high relative to third-country imports, purchases by China are expected at 7.0m. tons (4.0m.).
US marketing year shipments in 2012/13 (September/August) are forecast to increase to 47.0m. tons
(41.9m.). Due to strong export competition from Ukraine and South America, the US export share is expected
to increase only slightly, to around 46%, down from an average 54% in the past five years. Ukraine has
quickly become a major exporter of maize, with recent shipments surpassing combined exports of wheat and
barley. Another large crop later this year should enable October/September shipments to be maintained at
14.0m. t.
11
BARLEY
World feed and malting barley trade is forecast to decline to 17.5m. tons (19.3m.) in 2012/13, due to
lower demand for feed barley in Saudi Arabia and, given increased spring production, a decline in EU malting
barley imports. Lower export availability from Australia is expected to be offset somewhat by increased
production and exports from Argentina. Due to lower domestic output in Morocco, imports are expected to be
higher at 0.6m. tons (0.5m.). A strong harvest in Algeria should result in a sharp reduction in imports in
2012/13, to a forecast 0.3m. tons (0.7m.), although firm consumption growth will keep volumes above
historical levels. Despite the forecast increase in Canada’s crop, exports are not expected to rise, as
competition from Argentina will limit export potential, while tight supplies will limit export sales from the EU.
WORLD GRAIN PRICES ON 17/07/2012
PRODUCT CODE PRICE US$/Ton
USA 2HRW 371,00
FRANCE BREAD WHEAT 327,90
ARGENTINA BREAD -
USA 2SRW 339,50
CANADA DURUM 2WAD -
FRANCE DURUM 347,04
FRANCE BARLEY 304,90
RUSSIA BARLEY 305,00
USA CORN (3YC) 346,30
USA LONG GRAIN RICE 574,00
(*) Selling rate of Central Bank on 16/07/2012 : 1,8184 (**) REFERENCE: REUTERS (***) Russian Barley price is according to IGC Report dated 16.07.2012 (****) USA Long Grain Rice price is according to IGC Report dated 10.07.2012 (*****) France Durum price is according to FRANCE AGRIMER dated 16.07.2012
Table: 5
WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION, TRADE, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK VALUES (MILLION TONS)
WHEAT 2008/09 2009/2010 2010/11
2011/12 ESTIMATE
2012/13 FORECAST
PRODUCTION 685 679 653 695 665
TRADE 137 128 126 144 135
CONSUMPTION 645 653 658 689 682
STOCK 173 199 194 199 182
*REFERENCE: IGC JUNE 2012 Table: 6
WORLD MAIZE PRODUCTION, TRADE, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK VALUES (MILLION TONS)
MAIZE 2008/09 2009/2010 2010/11
2011/12 ESTIMATE
2012/13 FORECAST
PRODUCTION 800 820 829 868 917
TRADE 84 86 93 94 103
CONSUMPTION 784 821 844 871 910
STOCK 150 149 133 129 137
*REFERENCE: IGC JUNE 2012 Table: 7
12
WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION (2012/13 FORECAST MILLION TONS)
COUNTRY NAME WHEAT BARLEY MAIZE
EUROPE (27 COUNTRIES) 132,1 53,0 65,9
CHINA 117,0 2,6 195,0
INDIA 90,0 1,6 22,0
USA 60,5 4,7 350,0
RUSSIA 49,0 16,5 -
CANADA 26,5 9,0 12,5
AUSTRALIA 24,0 7,5 0,4
TURKEY 18,5 6,0 3,8
UKRAINE 13,0 9,0 24,0
ARGENTINA 11,5 5,2 25,0
KAZAKHISTAN 15,0 2,1 -
WORLD TOTAL 665,1 135,0 917,2
*REFERENCE: IGC JUNE 2012 Table: 8
PRODUCTION STATUS OF WORLD WHEAT PRODUCERS (MILLION TONS)
WHEAT PRODUCER COUNTRIES
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
ESTIMATE 2012/13
FORECAST
2012 RATIO IN WORLD
PRODUCTION PER
FORECASTED PRODUCTION
VALUES %
FAR EAST 227,3 227,3 236,1 238,1 35,8
CHINA 115,1 115,2 117,9 117,0 17,6
INDIA 80,7 80,8 86,9 90,0 13,5
EUROPE 143,0 140,6 142,1 136,4 20,5
EU-27 138,3 136,8 137,6 132,1 19,9
FRANCE 38,3 38,1 36,1 37,2 5,6
GERMANY 25,2 24,0 23,0 22,7 3,4
ENGLAND 14,1 14,9 15,3 15,6 2,3
ROMANIA 5,2 6,0 7,0 5,3 0,8
HUNGARY 4,4 3,8 4,1 4,0 0,6
C.I.S 113,6 81,1 115,0 91,4 13,7
RUSSIA 61,7 41,5 56,2 49,0 7,4
UKRAINE 20,9 16,8 22,3 13,0 2,0
KAZAKHISTAN 16,5 9,6 22,7 15,0 2,3
USA 60,4 60,1 54,4 60,5 9,1
CANADA 26,8 23,2 25,3 26,5 4,0
AUSTRALIA 21,8 27,9 29,5 24,0 3,6
PAKISTAN 24,0 23,9 24,2 23,5 3,5
TURKEY 18,5 17,5 18,8 18,5 2,8
ARGENTINE 9,0 15,8 13,4 11,5 1,7
SYRIA 4,0 3,6 3,9 3,7 0,6
WORLD 679,0 653,1 694,7 665,1 100,0
*REFERENCE: IGC JUNE 2012
Table: 9