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Page 1: travel in the 21st century

dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de

travel in the 21st centurytravel in the 21st century

• 2 Mio. flights / week2 Mio. flights / week

• 500 largest airports500 largest airports

• 95% of the entire 95% of the entire aviation networkaviation network

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Page 2: travel in the 21st century

dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de

the „severe acute respiratory syndrome” (SARS)

the „severe acute respiratory syndrome” (SARS)

Hong Hong KongKongHong Hong KongKong

GuangdongGuangdongGuangdongGuangdong

IrlandIrlandIrlandIrland

VietnamVietnamVietnamVietnamSingapurSingapurSingapurSingapur

KanadaKanadaKanadaKanada

USAUSAUSAUSA

DeutschlandDeutschlandDeutschlandDeutschland ThailanThailandd

ThailanThailandd

• caused by coronaviruscaused by coronavirus

• first outbreak: Chinafirst outbreak: China

• February 2003 in Hong KongFebruary 2003 in Hong Kong

• worldwide spread in over 30 worldwide spread in over 30 countriescountries

• approx 8000 infectionsapprox 8000 infections

• 10% die10% die

Page 3: travel in the 21st century

dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de

a model for the global spread of SARSa model for the global spread of SARS

• Is it possible to Is it possible to describedescribe the spread of the spread of human infectious human infectious diseases based on the diseases based on the aviation network?aviation network?

• How How reliablereliable are are predictions?predictions?

• What properties of the What properties of the aviation network aviation network facilitatefacilitate the spread? the spread?

• What properties of the What properties of the aviation network aviation network facilitate facilitate predictabilitypredictability??

Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., Geisel, T., Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., Geisel, T., PNASPNAS, , 101101, 15124-15129, 2004, 15124-15129, 2004 Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., Geisel, T., Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., Geisel, T., PNASPNAS, , 101101, 15124-15129, 2004, 15124-15129, 2004

Page 4: travel in the 21st century

dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de dirk brockmann - mpids - max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization - www.ds.mpg.de

international aviation networkinternational aviation network


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