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ABRAHAM GULKOWITZ
2013 issue 9May 12, 2013
Complex Recovery PathsMajor central bank activismand some surprisingly good economic data in the U.S. have lifted equity markets and also helped the credit markets contintheir rally. Central bank policy has been focused on an emergency bailout footing to stave off sudden panic and is also is aimed at stimulating econoactivity. This has involved incentivizing households and businesses to expand and take some more risk. But no new policy initiative is perfect noimplementation nor is it precise in its impact. Some in the markets and even in the Fed itself worry that the massive and unprecedented easing couldcausing its own distortions and perverse side effects. Equally troubling is the reality that massive easing tends to smooth performance in the short run evas the risks take much longer to play out. It has clearly triggered a chancy search for yield that may yet lead to new asset bubbles and financial instabiThere are numerous examples. One is highlighted on the this first page of the PunchLine and later on the credit pages. Bank lending to larger corporahas exploded, growing atrates not seen since the boomthat was central to the great financial collapse. Also, Spanishand Italianbenchmark borrowing coare now at their lowest levels since the last quarter of 2010, as these high-yielding peripheral securities have caught the attention of both domestic ainternational investors. While the liquidity provided bykey central banks -- including the move bythe Bank of J apan to initiate massive monetary easing --likelycontinue suppressing yields, there is a serious argument to be made that the rallies have moved beyond fundamentals This increases the likelihoof moresurprises, not less
US and EU Political Systems Struggling to Deal With 'New Realities'
The euro zones central bank did as little as
expected, a 25 basis point drop in its main rate,
to 0.5 percent. A lack of unanimity suggests it
wont cut more soon, or start any bold
initiatives. The ECB looks too divided to wage a
tougher fight against a sinking economy.
ECB Moves Markets, Not Economy
Apri l Jobs Stronger Than Expected
but Recovery 'Very, Very SlowUS employment growth beats
expectations with increase of 165K
jobs in April, unemployment rate falls
to 7.5%
Emerging Asian neighbors are bracing for a surge in
capital flows after Japan's unprecedented bid to pump
up its long-moribund economy but most believe the
upside of cheap cash and a stronger Japanese
economy outweighs the risks.
FranceDeclaresAusterityOverasGermanyOffersWiggleRoom
OnlineRetailersCallInternSalesTaxa'Nightmare'
Corporatebondpricesrisetonew2013peak;YieldsinHYcontinuetoslide
MassiveJapaneseRallyCouldEndinTears
JapanTrashesYenEmerging again as a competitive exporter
Greece's youth unemployment hits 60% as
recession continues to cripple the country
Corporate earnings deserve high marks. Howeve
if you go to the revenue side, it was not a goo
quarter. Less than half (48%) of the companie
beat sales expectations and it looks like we'r
going to finish with no growth for the quarter
Bernanke admits the Fed islooking at asset markets closelyfor signs of excessive risk taking
Relentless quantitative easing is driving markets to extremes. Central banks w
more GDP growth. But they also get extra low yields, high commodity and a
prices, hurting many consumers. They also get markets which rely on even m
easy money - and which could fumble at some point...
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May 12, 2013
In This Issue
Headlines and data appearing in The Punch Line came from widely available publications including
national and international newspapers, trade journals, economic and industrial bulletins and news websites.
You Cant Handle the Truth (
The Likelihood of Unlikely Events... (
Households?Lots of recovery signals but far off the normal recovery path. Numerous quest
remain for a once free-spending sector whose housing and mortgage finance
machinery have not just collapsed but are severely damagedThe previous
cannot and should not be recreated But the world aches for a vibrant U.S.
consumer with job growth (p
A Closer Look (p
Data Detective (p
Pumping iron (p
Credit Matters (p
Credit Concerns (p
Deal or No Deal in Europe (p
The DNA of Business (p
Some More Industry Specs (p
Real Estate and Construct ion (p
Will L ife Ever be the Same? (p
Complex Recovery PathsMajor central bank activism and some surprisingly good economic data in theU.S. have lifted equity markets and also helped the credit markets continue theirrally. Central bank policy has been focused on an emergency bailout footing tostave off sudden panic and is also is aimed at stimulating economic activity. Thishas involved incentivizing households and businesses to expand and take somemore risk. But no new policy initiative is perfect not in implementation nor is itprecise in its impact. Some in the markets and even in the Fed itself worry thatthe massive and unprecedented easing could be causing its own distortions andperverse side effects. It has clearly triggered a chancy search for yield that mayyet lead to new asset bubbles and financial instability. There are numerousexamples. One is highlighted on the this first page of the PunchLine and later onthe credit pages. Bank lending to larger corporates has exploded, growing atrates not seen since the boom that was central to the great financial collapse.Also, Spanish and Italian benchmark borrowing costs are now at their lowest
levels since the last quarter of 2010, as these high-yielding peripheral securitieshave caught the attentionof bothdomestic and international investors. While theliquidity provided bykeycentral banks -- includingthe move bythe Bank of J apanto initiate massivemonetaryeasing -- will likelycontinue suppressing yields, thereis a serious argument to be made that the rallies have moved beyondfundamentals This increases the likelihoodof more surprises,notless
(pg 1)
In This Issue (pg 2)
Engines of GrowthThere will be far-reaching repercussions from this weak recovery path combined
with the awkward easing easing policy of central banks. But what choice is
there? And lets not forget that the challenges are clearly an international affair,
rife with politics and therefore difficult to resolve (pg 3)
New Directions (pg 4)
The New Geography of Business (pg 5)
U.S. Break Out Potential (pg 6)
The Return to Normal (pg 7)
Contact information:
Abraham Gulkowitz
phone: 917-402-9039 email: [email protected]
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Engine Drivers
Eurozone Economic Confidence Falls
More Than ForecastEurozone economic confidence declined more than expected in
April with broad-based contraction across sectors excluding
consumer sentiment, survey data showed
US consumer spending rises,
The private sector comes to U.S. economy's rescue
Europe's Manufacturers Face a TestEurope's industrialists are steeling themselves for a difficult
six months, forecasting at best a stabilization in their business,
and at worst a further drop in sales.
Volumes on the Asia-Europe container trade sllid nearly 10% year on year in March, because of demand
weakness in Europe, resulting in volumes for the quarter sinking into negative territory. According to the
latest data from Container Trades Statistics, volumes from Asia to northern Europe declined 9.7% year on yearin March to 698,052teu. As a result, volumes for the first quarter on the trade slipped 2.8% to 2.1 million
teu. Until March, volume growth on the trade had been relatively stable, increasing 2.2% year on year in
January and declining 0.6% in February.
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New Directions
US Rate On 15-year Mortgage
Falls To New Record At 2.56 Pct.
China Export Gains Spur Renewed Skepticism of FigureChinas export growth unexpectedly accelerated in April ev
as shipments to the U.S. and Europe fell, spurring Bank
America Corp. and Mizuho Securities Co. analysts to say tfigures were inflated by fake reports. The 14.7 perce
increase, reported by the General Administration of Customs
Beijing today, was led by a 57.2 percent jump in shipments
Hong Kong that highlighted suspicions of false transactio
used to mask capital flows into China. A customs spokesm
said last month that the agency would investigate t
extraordinary gain in trade with Hong Kong. The repdeepens skepticism on the reliability of trade data from t
worlds largest exporting nation, with Royal Bank of Scotla
Group Plc saying export gains may be overstated by
percentage points. Regulators announced a crackdown th
week on companies using trade reports to disguise speculati
money inflows chasing a yuan thats already exceeded la
years gains against the dollar.
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The New Geography of Business
Massive Shift of Wealth The cr eat ion of
extraordinary personal wealth in China coupled with fears
of confiscation and social instability has caused what is
probably the greatest transfer of assets abroad in
China's history. A recent study by Boston Consulting
Group (BCG) and China Construction Bank (CCB) estimated
that wealthy Chinese households hold around 2.8 trillion
renminbi (453 billion dollars) in offshore assets,
equivalent to 3% of China's 2011 GDP. Chinese accounted
for 9.1 billion dollars of purchases of US homes in the
last financial year, the secondlargest source country
after Canada
Urban violence is a persistent problem in Latin America,with cities such as San Pedro Sula, Acapulco and Caracas
notorious for their high rates of crime. This is owing to a
combination of factors including political instability, the
growing presence of powerful criminal groups and the
inability of the security forces to crack down on crime. India Cuts Policy RateThe Reserve Bank of India lowered its policy interest
rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 7.25%, but
said the inflation risk leaves it "little" space for
further easing.
The European Commission Friday suggested granting more
time to some European countries to adjust their finances afterissuing fresh forecasts pointing to a delayed economic
recovery amid dire jobs conditions and drying-up of credit to
households and businesses.
Australia is set to become the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG)
producer. Japan, the world's largest LNG importer, is i ts largest market by
far. The LNG 17 Conference in Houston last month highlighted the
challenges facing Australian producers and Japanese buyers. Cost escalation
is jeopardizing projects in Australia, where huge reserves are being
developed for export to the strongly growing Asian market. Meanwhile,
there were repeated calls for new pricing mechanisms from Japan, whose
electricity prices were described as spiraling out of control.
Foreign investment in Italian holiday properties is rising as Germans, Britons and
Russians take advantage of a market where locals are struggling to purchase even
a first home. Residential sales in the country dropped almost 26 percent last yearamid a plunge in mortgage lending, almost two years of recession, and
uncertainty surrounding a new tax on primary residences.
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U.S. Breakout Potential
North Dakota provides about 11% of the U.S. oil
production and the Bakken accounts for 40% of
the nations increase in domestic oil production
in recent years.
The Bakken oil boom has led to strong growth in
employment and record low unemployment rates in
that region. Tight labor markets and high wages
in the Bakken have also given rise to countless
anecdotes from business owners complaining of
difficulty finding qualified workers and having
to pay higher wages to keep them.
Geopolitics Raised in Gas DebateThe debate over whether the U.S. should export some
of its natural-gas bonanza is increasingly shaped bygeopolitical implications.
Proponents of U.S. gas exports, including current and
former lawmakers, say that exporting some U.S. gas
would bolster America's relations with allies in Europe
and Asia, weaken the hold of major energy producers
such as Russia and help further isolate Iran. Critics
worry any strategic advantage would be outweighed by
eroding the benefit cheap energy offers U.S. industry at
home.
'Sold in the USA' Stocks Beating S&P 500 Index
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May 12, 2013
The Return to Normal ?
U.S. auto lenders will likely report further weakening in asset quality metrics this y
driven mainly by lower used car values, a loosening of underwriting terms and fur
seasoning of loan portfolios, according to Fitch. Credit losses and delinquency
increased on a year-over-year basis for all major auto lenders in the first quarter, and
expect that trend to continue as asset quality metrics retreat from historically strong le
reported in 2012. For Fitch-rated issuers, average credit losses increased 16 bps year-o
year in 1Q'13, and delinquencies were 67 bps higher than the year-earlier quarter.
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You Cant Handle the TruthLet'sTaketheConoutofEconomics
Demographics Japan
Japan's population fell by 284,000 in the year
to October 2012, the largest decrease in both
number and rate since comparable data began
in 1950. Meanwhile, the population aged 65
years and above rose by 1.04 million to
exceed 30 million for the first time and
account for 24.1% of the total. The population
aged 14 years and below fell to a record low
of 13%. Japan has among the world's longest
life expectancies; its fertility rate (the
expected number of births over a lifetime) is
among lowest. This combination means that
its population is growing older and shrinking.
Corruption complicates security at Sochi OlympicsPresident Vladimir Putin has staked his reputation on the 2014
Winter Olympics, scheduled to take place in Sochi, a city on the
Black Sea coast, near the Abkhazia border. As preparations for the
games enter the home stretch, the Russian government has
intensified efforts to ensure security at the event. The threat of
terrorism at international sporting events has been highlighted by
the recent bombing at the Boston Marathon. The ethnic and
religious background of the Boston marathon bombing suspects hasintensified fears of a similar attack in Sochi and the possibility that
the Boston bombing will be used for a further crackdown on
minority populations, primarily in the North Caucasus.
The chart illustrates why the bulls are running in the lo
market. For one, the average price of S&P/LSTA Index loreached a 6.5year high of 98.39 on April 30, up from 98.1
month earlier and 96.79 at the end of 2012. Moreover, whTXU is excluded, the average Index price is within strik
distance of par, at 99.29 at the end of April.
World Corruption Professional services firm
Ernst & Young published its 12th annual fraud
survey on May 7. Known for its large global
sample and methodological rigour, the survey
provides important insight into the perceptions
of business executives regarding corruption,
fraud and other types of misconduct. This
year's results suggest that the pressures of
economic downturn make executives more
inclined to consider corruption and fraud as
acceptable business practices. Despite the
increasingly tough enforcement of anti-bribery
laws, some executives continue to regardcorruption as the only way to operate in
certain geographical and sectoral contexts.
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May 12, 2013
The Likelihood of Unlikely Events
The U.S. central bank is sticking with loose
monetary policy and hefty asset purchases. But
with stocks at record levels and home prices up
9.4 pct in a year, asset values are heading higher
even if growth isnt. The Fed needs to counter
bubbles as well as economic sluggishness.
The tech giant Apple sold 30year paper with a
coupon under 4 pct. Markets have also seen asurge in dividend recaps, PIK toggles and other
throwbacks to the precrisis leverage boom. One
culprit is central banks sucking supply andsquashing rates. Such distortions usually end
badly.
Fears over the sustainability of government debt have
powered the political drive towards contractionary
fiscal policy, despite tepid global demand, in the
OECD. Yet a key empirical justification for this effort
appears to have been discredited by a graduate student
in recent published work, reigniting the debate over
fiscal policy.
Rising US government revenue from tax collectionsand bailout paybacks are shrinking the federal deficit
faster than expected, delaying the point when the
government will reach the so-called debt ceiling.
IMF cites current account concerns in Latin America
A de ca de o f z er o or lo w g ro wt h
Europe w oul d w ei gh o n m os t o f
continent's corporate sector, but scale of the impact would
significantly, Fitch Ratings says
scenario analysis of the poten
winners and losers from a Japans
lo st d ec ad e pu ts u til it ie s
telecom companies among those most
risk, while the gaming sector c
benefit from deregulation
go ve rnm en ts s ea rc h f or w ay s
increase tax revenues.
Spanish and Italian benchm
borrowing costs are now at their low
levels since the last quarter of 2010
the high-yielding peripheral bon
have caught the attention of b
domestic and international investo
While the liquidity provided by
central banks -- including
announcement by the Bank of Jap
(BoJ) on April 4 of aggressive monet
easing -- will likely contin
suppressing yields in other regio
some investors believe the Europ
rally is overdone. This increases scope for at least a pause in tar
markets -- and even a serio
correction.
The Next Pandemic: Not if, but When
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Households Brave New World
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A Closer Look
US consumer credit rose by $8.0 billion in March following an increase
of $18.6 billion in February. Economists had expected credit to increase
by $15.0 billion. While non-revolving credit such as student loans and
car loans rose by $9.7 billion, the increase was partly offset by a $1.7
billion drop in revolving credit, which largely reflects credit card debt.
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Data Detective
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Pumping Iron - Old Economy
New Challenges
Auto Sales Hauled Higher by Pickup TrucksDetroit 3 gain market share in April on strength of pickups, crossovers
Highway construction through the first two
months of this year was up 2.4% from 2012's
level, according to the U.S. Dept. of
Commerce's construction put-in-place data for
February. Combined with higher oil prices,
that extra demand has helped to push ENR's
price for PG-58 asphalt paving oil up 1.1%
this month and 6.6% above a year ago.
J apanese Car Makers Lose Their Midsize EdgeFord Fusion, Hyundai Sonata, VW Passat, Others Pose Real
Challenge After Closing Quality Gap
General Motors reported sales growth in China accelerated lamonth while Toyota Motor Corp.'s deliveries continued to lag. GM
sales climbed 15 percent to 261,870 units in April, according to figure
released today by the carmaker. Toyota reported sales fell 6.5 percen
to 76,400 units, the ninth drop in 10 months. GM's sales of Buick an
Chevrolet vehicles rose more than 20 percent as the company seeks to
keep its lead in China among foreign automakers for a ninth straigh
year. That's at the expense of Japanese automakers who are still copin
with the fallout of a territorial dispute that flared in September.
GM Sinks $1.3 Billion Into Chinese Cadillac Factory
Iron Ore Seen Dropping by BHP as Supply Growth Tops Demand
Global iron ore supplies will expand faster than demand over the lon
term, lowering prices and reducing volatility of the raw material use
to make steel, according to BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the largesmining company. New seaborne cargoes will replace more expensiv
output, mainly in China, Alan Chirgwin, general manager of iron or
marketing, told a conference in Singapore today. He didnt give pric
forecasts or define long term. China is the worlds largest buyer of th
biggest seaborne cargo after crude oil.
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Credit Matters-Know Risk
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Credit Concerns
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Deal or No Deal in Europe?
Portugal's prime minister says he plans to raise
retirement age to 66 from 65 and lay off so
30,000 government workers in measures that aim
save 4.8 billion euros ($6.3 billion) over the n
three years. Pedro Passos Coelho said in a televi
address to the nation that the new measures
needed to ensure Portugal won't require anot
bailout. Portugal got a 78 billion euro rescue
2011 after overspending, heavy debts and w
growth left it close to bankruptcy amid
eurozone's financial crisis.
Poland Cuts Interest Rates to Record Amid Lack of RecovePolands central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low a
European Unions largest eastern economy struggles with slowing growth.
Narodowy Bank Polski lowered the seven-day reference rate by a quarter-poin
percent. Policy makers resumed reductions after a pause last month as in
slowed to its weakest in more than six years and manufacturing shrank the m
45 months in April. While the reduction in borrowing costs shouldnt be seen
start of a new round of monetary easing, a further cut or unchanged rate
possible when policy makers meet next, Governor Marek Belka said
Is the s lide in auto sector bot toming out?Car sales rose in Germany and Spain last mont
adding to signs that Europe's austeritydrive
auto slump could soon bottom out. Spanish c
sales increased 11 percent while registratio
in Germ any , t he regi on 's bi gge st m ark et
advanced 4 percent for the first gain in s
months, national industry body data showed o
Friday. The numbers build on data showing th
th e d rop in car sal es i n Fra nce slowed to
pe rce nt in April fr om a 16 pe rce nt f all i
March. In Italy, where sales fell 11 perce
last month, there was cautious optimism tha
political uncertainty ended.
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The DNA of BusinessWorkouts to Define Recovery
Poker devotees will soon be able to skip the smoky casino
and legally gamble their dollars away on the couch - at least
in the state of Nevada. A Las Vegas-based social gambling
company is expected to launch the first legal, real-money
poker website in the United States. The site, run by
Ultimate Gaming, will accept wagers only from players in
Nevada for now, but likely represents the shape of things to
come for gamblers across the country. Internet poker, never
fully legal, has been strictly outlawed since 2011, when the
Department of Justice seized the domain names of the
largest offshore sites catering to U.S. customers and
blacked them out.
Apple sets 6-part deal to establish funding yield curveApple today filed to offer an SECregistered, sixpart
benchmark transaction intended to establish a bona fide
yield curve for the highprofile, but historically debt
av er se bo rr ow er, a s it em ba rk s on an ag gr es siv e
shareholderreturn plan. The total bondoffering size hasyet to be determined, but speculation over the last week
has leaned toward an historic debut amount. On April
23, Apple officials said on the debtfree companys
earnings call that we will access the U.S. debt markets
over time, as it prepares to return roughly $100 billion
to shareholders through calendaryear 2015. The plan is
expected to weigh on domestically domiciled cash
balances, as the company resists repatriating material
amounts of offshore cash due to tax implications.
Regulators Scruti nize Auto Lenders Over Add -OnsThe Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has issuedsubpoenas to U.S. auto lenders over the sale of extendedwarranties and other financial products, expanding a civilprobe thatcould slowthe booming car-loan industry.
Iron Man is a bigger golden boy than ever with a $175.3
million opening weekend at the domestic box office forthe superhero's latest sequel. According to studio
estimates Sunday, "Iron Man 3" had the second-biggest
debut ever, behind the $207.4 million start last year for
"The Avengers," which teamed him with other Marvel
Comics heroes. Opening a week earlier overseas, "Iron
Man 3" has hauled in $504.8 million internationally,
giving the blockbuster a worldwide total of $680.1
million.
The summer box office season was jump-started by
Iron Man 3 and its super(hero)-sized opening (2ndbest all-time). While this is a healthy sign for the box
office, the industry top 12 was still down ~13% fromlast year when The Avengers was tops with a
record-breaking $207.4mm bow. YTD revenues and
attendance are both tracking down 11%.
Home prices in US metropolitan areas saw
their biggest year-over-year gains in more
than seven years in the first quarter, evidence
that the housing recovery is spreading across
the nation.
China Faces Fall in Factory Prices
A sharp fall in factory pricesthe 14th consecutive monthly
declinesignals further trouble for a Chinese economy already facingmounting debt and slowing growth.Producer pricesa measure of prices of goods before they reach consumers
dropped 2.4% in April, the sharpest decline since October, paced by particularly
steep falls in the metals and chemicals sectors. That could add to concerns about
China's slowdown in growth, say economists, because falling producer prices make it
tougher for makers of industrial goods and commodities to make profits, pay off their
debts and pay their suppliers on time. Part of a big surge in Chinese lending has been
used to refinance debt or pay off interest of companies burdened by overcapacity
Citrus Disease With No C
Is Ravaging Florida Grov
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Some Industry Specs
Small investors are borrowing against their portfolios at a rapid
clip, reaching levels of debt not seen since the financial crisis.
U.S.retailerscontinuedtobestymiedbycoolweatherinApril,leadingtogenerally
lukewarmsamestoresalesforthemonth
Cutting Student Debt
The White House proposes that the government forgive billions of
dollars in student debt, cheering student advocates, but critics say it
would encourage students to borrow too much and stick taxpayers
with the bill.
20CITYSurvey MaterialsCosts CONSTRUCTION
1913
=
100
May
2013Source:ENR
IndexValue %changeMonth %changeYear
Materials 2976.14 +0.8 +2.0
CEMENT$/TON 109.91 0.0 +2.3
STEEL$/CWT 49.95 +0.8 0.9
LUMBER$/MBF 434.26 +1.0 +10.5
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Real Estate and Construction Outlook
Congress Looks at REIT Tax Exemptio
A powerful congressional committee
examining the tax exemption that re
estate investment trusts have enjoyed
decades as part of its comprehens
review of the tax code
More than 3 million square feet of vacant office space is slate
open next year at 1 World Trade Center and the neighboring to
under construction, 4 WTC. And another 2 million square fee
on the drawing board at 3 WTC, whose construction is stalle
seven stories for lack of commercial tenants
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Will Life Ever Be the Same?
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