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Towards ecosystem-based management of Northeast Pacific herring fisheries
Szymon Surma!Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries !
University of British Columbia
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Pacific herring•energy conduit: zooplankton to larger predators!
•food and income for many coastal communities!
•stock declines, fishery closures, calls for EBFM!
•how to reconcile human, ecosystem needs?
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Food web modeling
• framework: Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)!
• basic principle: mass balance!
• 80 functional groups!
• study area: N British Columbia, SE Alaska
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MSE in EwE• simulates long-term strategy implementation!
• compares impacts of management strategies!
• places herring & fisheries in food web context!
• can use ecological & socioeconomic criteria
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Cefas EwE MSE tool
• ecosystem parameter uncertainty!
• stochastic stock assesment error!
!
• stochastic realized fishing mortality
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CURRENT
Surma (2019)
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EBFM
Surma (2019)
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LOW F
Surma (2019)
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Median catch
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
MSYBC4 BC1 ATF BC2AK1BC3 SOKAK2 LF3 LF1 LF2 LF4
Adu
lt he
rrin
g ca
tch
(t.km
-2)
Surma (2019)
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Closure probability
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
LF2 LF4 LF1 LF3 AK2MSYBC2 BC1AK1BC3 BC4 ATF SOK
Prob
abili
ty o
f clo
sure
Surma (2019)
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Surma (2019)
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Bottom-up scenarios• performance under reduced primary productivity!
• BC5: no “good” production years (below 75%ile)!
• BC6: only “bad” production years (below 25%ile)!
• results relative to base productivity, herring F = 0
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Surma (2019)
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Conclusions• ecosystem impacts of current strategies moderate!
• tradeoff between ecological & socioeconomic goals!
• strategy spectrum (current BC & AK, low F, EBFM)!
• low predator biomass possible under all strategies
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Acknowledgements• Dr. Tony Pitcher!
• Dr. Villy Christensen!
• Dr. Evgeny Pakhomov!
• Dr. Steven Mackinson!
• Dr. Mark Platts!
• PERF lab members
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Thank you!