Download - Tobacco-Free Ireland 2025: What kinds of investments are needed? Professor Luke Clancy WCTOH 2015
Tobacco-Free Ireland 2025: What kinds of investments are needed?
Professor Luke Clancy WCTOH 2015
Cigarette Smoking Prevalence Jan – Dec 2014
Do You Smoke one or More Cigarettes per week?
Cigarette prevalence by Gender12 month moving average
Proportion of Cigarette Smokers by Socio-economic group
Jan – Dec 2014
SimSmoke Modelling David Levy
Example: Ireland SimSmoke Male Prevalence with Individual FCTC Policies
Policies/Year 2010 2011 2020 2030 2040
% Change in Smoking Prevalence from Status Quo
Independent Policy Effects
Tax 70% of Retail Price -3.3% -4.3% -5.5% -6.6%
Complete Smoke Free & Enforcement -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%
Comprehensive Ad Ban & Enforcement -0.5% -0.6% -0.7% -0.7%
High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign -6.3% -7.3% -8.2% -8.9%
Strong Health Warnings -1.2% -1.5% -1.6% -1.6%
Strong Youth Access Enforcement -0.4% -2.5% -4.2% -6.0%
Cessation Treatment Policies -2.2% -4.3% -5.5% -5.9% Combined Policy Effects All above, including Youth Access -13.5% -19.9% -24.6% -28.1%
Predictions from SimSmoke Ireland
• Even with full compliance with MPOWER no country that we examined can reach elimination by 2040
• We need more and better policies particularly on the supply side
HCP Smoking
Referral by HCPs to Cessation Services
Online & social media1
1-1 clinics3On the phone2
Support groups4
1. Third party contractor
2. Health Service staff and third party contractor
3. Health Service staff
4. Health Service staff
Trained cessation support staff Standard Treatment ProgrammeTrack and Support Quitters for 12 months
The QUIT Team
EU Role in Tobacco Control
EU Directives
EC Recommendations
DG Sanco
Mass Media Multimillion Budget
Research funding
The Tobacco Industry
FCTC Article 5.3
Tobacco giant issues legal threat over plain packagingBenson and Hedges owner warns of legal action unless Ministers halt legislationTue, Feb 17, 2015Japan Tobacco’s packaging objections look set for courts‘Big Tobacco’ watches closely as plain packaging precedent may affect larger EU marketsWed, Feb 18, 2015Reilly to restrict tenders from firms linked to tobacco groupArthur Cox threatened action against State over plain cigarette packagingFri, Feb 27, 2015James Reilly’s plan to move on firms with tobacco contracts could hit snagSat, Feb 28, 2015
Not a single elected politician in the Dáil or Seanad voted against the
Standardised Packaging of Tobacco Act 2015
Illicit Trade
The Future of Nicotine Dependence
Gerry’s 3 ads create dissonance• Prompt quit attempt • 80-90% will quit alone• Promote Services
TV – Why to QUIT
• Radio Copy - complete emphasis on QUIT Team, we can help, twice as likely
• Digital - Twice as likely, quit now, calculator. Focus on visits and signing up
• Hopeful, supportive
RADIO AND DIGITAL – HOW TO QUIT
The Media Package