![Page 1: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Tito Boeri
Università Bocconi eFondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti
“Migration and Development Labor Market session”
A European Perspective
Washington, 23 May 2007
![Page 2: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Outline
• Immigration to European-type institutions: theoretical predictions and empirical evidence
• A closer look at “welfare abuse” and “welfare shopping”
• Policy issues:– Restricting welfare access by migrants– Adopting a point system – Introducing a pan-European safety net
![Page 4: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Unskilled migration to imperfect labour markets
w
L
w
N
Unemp
• With a minimum wage • With semi-rigid wages
w
L
w0w1
NUnemp
Ls Ls
Ld Ld
![Page 5: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
However
• Econometric studies find very mild effects of unskilled migration on wages and unemployment of natives
• And opinion polls indicates that Europeans are not too worried about the labor market impact of immigration (1 out of 2 states that “we need immigrants to work in certain sectors of our economy”*)
* Source: Eurobarometer 64, June 2006.
![Page 6: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Perhaps because migration substitutes low internal mobility
![Page 7: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
And under centralised bargaining may improve the labor market also in the South
![Page 8: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Growing Concernson welfare
% of respondents stating that “minority groups exploit the system of social welfare”
EU 12 EU 1542
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
EU12 EU 15
2000 2000
1994
1997
Source: EU 12, Eurobarometer 1994, 2000; EU 15, Eurobarometer 1997,2000.
![Page 9: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Stronger concerns in countries with a richer welfare state…
Unconditional correlation between perceptions of welfare abuse and generosity of welfare systems
![Page 10: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Self-selectionSocial welfare and the skill composition of migrants
![Page 11: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Are really migrants abusing welfare?
• Evaluating “residual welfare dependency” of migrants (non-EU citizens) based on ECHP data 2001
• In the ECHP 2112 non-EU migrants accounting for 3.75% of the respondents (under-representation)
• Is there a residual effect of migrant status on benefit receipt after controlling for personal characteristics?
![Page 12: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Migrants are over-represented among beneficiaries of several transfers..
Odds Ratios
00.5
11.5
22.5
3
Pensio
n
Unem
ploym
ent B
enef
its
Family
Allo
wance
s
Sickne
ss B
enef
its
Educa
tion
Allowan
ces
Social
Ass
istan
ce
Housin
g Allo
wance
s
![Page 13: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Country migrant_nonEU Observations Pseudo R-squared
Germany -0.28 (0.03)*** 21733 0.19
Denmark 0.43 (0.09)*** 10342 0.13
Netherlands 0.16 (0.11) 17082 0.06
Belgium 0.17 (0.06)*** 10055 0.2
France 0.08 (0.05)* 19821 0.1
UnitedKingdom
-0.28 (0.12)** 15176 0.14
Ireland 0.33 (0.22) 7108 0.18
Italy -0.18 (0.11) 19441 0.11
Greece -0.13 (0.07)* 14520 0.18
Spain 0.1 (0.1) 17659 0.14
Portugal 0.13 (0.08) 16827 0.12
Austria -0.02 (0.07) 8337 0.19
Finland 0.02 (0.07) 9997 0.11
Residual dependency on Unemployment Benefits of non-EU citizens
![Page 14: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Residual Dependency on Social Assistance and Housing benefits of non-EU citizens
Country migrant_nonEU Observations Pseudo R-squared
Germany -0.19 (0.05)*** 21696 0.67
Denmark 0.29 (0.16)* 10281 0.75
Netherlands 0.16 (0.15) 17082 0.69
Belgium 0.01 (0.09) 9986 0.63
France -0.07 (0.06) 19788 0.48
United Kingdom -0.45 (0.13)*** 15166 0.68
Ireland -0.26 (0.33) 6978 0.72
Italy 0.16 (0.10)* 19441 0.09
Greece -0.16 (0.09)* 14520 0.17
Spain -0.08 (0.16) 17655 0.15
Portugal -0.09 (0.09) 16827 0.45
Austria -0.01 (0.08) 8321 0.54
Finland 0.14 (0.1) 9956 0.58
![Page 15: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The reaction of Governments
Immigration policy indexes
60
80
100
120
140
160
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Adm iss ion requirem ents Length of firs t s tayStaying requirem ents Years to obtain a perm anent res idence perm it
Num ber of adm inis trations involved QuotasAsylum policy
![Page 16: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Tightening everywhere, mostly in rich welfare state countries
www.frdb.org index of the stance of migration policies (increasing in restrictions)
![Page 17: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
A vicious circle?
• Perceptions of welfare abuse support tightening of migration policies resulting in more illegal (hence less skilled and not paying social security) migration.
• This further supports perceptions of welfare abuse making stricter migration policies even more popular….
![Page 18: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Policy options
3 possible ways out
1. Closing the welfare door to migrants
2. Selecting migrants: introducing a point system
3. Harmonising minimum guaranteed income schemes: a EU-wide safety net
![Page 19: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Closing the welfare door?
• US experience suggests that it is too difficult to enforce these restrictions
• Evidence that cutting access to welfare reduces migration to rigid countries (by 1,5-3% for men, while migration of women increases!) with no effects on the skill composition
• Problems of assimilation• Equity considerations
![Page 20: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
A points-based system?
• Skilled migration is consistent with redistributive institutions; it reduces income inequalities in the recipient.
• Simplification of migration policies (including asylum)
• Issues: enforcement; risk of “brain drain”, equity considerations.
![Page 21: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Brain drain may not be harmful to LDC growth
Source: Docquier – Rapoport (2004)
![Page 22: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Effective in selecting migrants(IALS scores)
Germany New Zealand
![Page 23: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Migration policies are already getting selective
• Tightening everywhere of migration policies towards the unskilled
• While race to attract highly skilled migrants
• Explicit point systems in a increasing number of countries (Canada since 67, Australia since 84, New Zealand since 91, Switzerland since 96, UK is gradually adopting it)
![Page 24: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
A EU-wide safety net?
• EU-wide minimum welfare floor (Atkinson (1998)) preventing a “race to the bottom” in non-contributory transfers
• Important design features (need to harmonise in absolute levels, adjusted to PPP)
• Costs (not too large actually: MGI at 430 Euros for singles costs about 30 billion, ½ of the CAP)
• If provided as citizenship right, necessary to coordinate migration policies as well.
![Page 25: Tito Boeri Università Bocconi e Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Migration and Development Labor Market session” A European Perspective Washington, 23 May](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff91a28abf838cbf90b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
In any event
• Migration policies and social policies ought to be more closely integrated
• Welfare state when fiscal spillovers are perceived as important poses problems of co-ordination across jurisdictions of welfare minima (and migration policies)