Theodore Gordon
Senior Research Fellow
The Millennium Project
November 16, 2009"Sapienza" Università di Roma
In our world, in our time, there are few good decisions and many bad ones
Futures research exists to help improve decision making; are bad decisions a mark of its failure? Can its utility be improved?
Bad decisions are often attributed to ethical failures (e.g. the current recession)
Yet ethics rates a top spot in Millennium Project studies that involve decision making
Cosmetics
Food
Is FR value free?What are the ethical implications of future developments?
The uses of futures research in decision making lie hereCan the contribution of futures research be improved?
Decision Making
Ethics
Futures Research
Ethical failures lie here.How can values playa bigger role in decisions?
A NEW DECISION SCIENCE
1. Decision time is short in an accelerating world
2. Things go wrong
3. Governments sometimes lie
4. Political forces
5. Uncertainty and surprise
6. Imaginations are limited
7. Innate irrationality
Lack of a moral compass Bad luck Naivety Expediency Self-interests Amorality Timidity Xenophobia Prejudice
Good decisions are hard to find The Montreal Protocol limiting ozone depleting
gasses Population forecasts of the 60’s that led to family
planning AIDS forecasts that led to massive research,
prevention Silent Spring, Limits to Growth: environmental
programs. And on a global scale we find improvements in
GDP per capita, food availability, life expectancy, literacy, infant mortality, access to fresh water and health care, and school enrollment.
So some good decision making is happening
Iraq Michael Phelps decision to smoke pot Sinking the Lusitania Red Socks selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees Atari turned down Steve Jobs Gary Cooper turning down the lead in GWTW Auto makers fly to DC in private jets “Pay-to-play“ former Gov. Blagojevich of
Chicago Sub prime mortgages
Is it all quarter-backing on Monday morning?
Twenty five years ago there was no Internet, camera-phones, few PCs, no flat screens,
WI-FI, Republic of Kosovo, environmental consciousness, International Space Station
No Euros, WTO, or NATO in Afghanistan
No asymmetrical warfare with Super Powers
Most believed that a nuclear WW III would occur
China has more Internet users then population of US.
Genetic code written like software: new life forms
Intelligent infrastructure: networks of sensors and RFIDs
Global brain(s) from Internet and collective intelligence
Humans as cyborgs – technology on and in the body
US and China cooperating: Apollo-like energy program
Japan anticipating electricity from Solar Power Satellites
Technological synergies Feedback of accomplishments New instrumentation and analysis
capacities Globalization Result: The Singularity ? (Kurzweil)
What can slow it?Natural limits (e.g. energy)Catastrophe (e.g. SIMAD)Religion, cultureFear of the unknown
Some bad decisions turn out badly as a result of unanticipated consequences.
Challenger launched despite suspicions
Thalidomide caused birth defects
Lead was added to gasoline
Nosocomial infections in hospitals
Suntan, meat, butter: once good for you now
questionable
Unfortunate examples Gulf of Tonkin The U-2 incident The existence of secret CIA prisons (rendition)
Paranoia results: are they lying? Media complicity or manipulation? Conspiracy theories: UFO’s, assassinations,
economy, inflation
Governments use the media because, the first info is what most people remember.
Crises trigger decisions: short term issues are higher priority than long term issues
Political dynamics shape decisions Demonstration of power Need for re-election Trading favors Turf protection Media imperatives and timing Role of polls Ultimately direct democracy
Systems may not behave as expected. Complexity and chaos (small errors have large
consequences) Chance events (discovery of a large scale fraud
affecting the entire financial system.)
Systems may not behave as they once did. Failure of analogies (sales of CD ROMs may not
be a predictor of music download sales). Failure of historical examples (are the job
creation strategies of the depression useable now?)
Modeling
Before there was Who could have forecasted
A chain reaction Atomic power, (Prehoda: Hahn-Strassmann point)
A transistor The demise of the vacuum tube
Penicillin Antibiotics
Petroleum Gasoline
Internet Google
15
The framing of a question biases its answer
We tend to see patterns where none may exist
Odds are often ignored.
Loss looms larger than gains
Decisions are often situation dependent
Frequently reported and recent events are accorded higher probability.
Lower probability events are seen as more probable than they should be.
From: Teversky and Kahenman, and The Hidden Traps in Decision Making (HBR Classic) John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa , January 2006 Issue and Future Savvy, Adam Gordon
Disproportionate weight is given to the first information
Killing a project is extremely difficult
People tend to seek information supporting an existing predilection
Difficult decisions are avoided
Any data are persuasive
People take orders: the Milgram phenomenon.
Mostly from: Teversky and Kahenman, and The Hidden Traps in Decision Making (HBR Classic) John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa , January 2006 Issue and Future Savvy, Adam Gordon
IssueImport to decision success
Ability of futures
research to improve
1. Decision time is short high high
2.Things go wrong very high moderate
3. Governments sometimes lie high low
4. Political forces shape the decision agenda high low
5. Uncertainty and surprise very high moderate
6. Imaginations are limited high high
7. Decision processes are often irrational. very high very low
.
ExpectedFuture
Desired Future
Gap Decisions
Change Goals
ChangeForecasts
One cannot know the future with certainty; but one can know a range of possible futures
Likelihood can be changed by policy and policy consequences can be explored
Judgment is not only permissible but necessary in some methods
Humans will have more influence on the future than in the past
Futures research is not a science
Large data
bases
ScenariosEconomet
ric Models
Delphi
Internet
Large data
basesTrend Impact
Analysis
Robust Decision Making
Real Time
Delphi
State of the
Future Index
Analysis Softwar
e
Collective
Intelligence
SystemsExperts
and Models
Example of SOFI (State of the Future Index) variables:Infant mortalityFood availabilityGNP per capita Access to fresh waterCO2 emissionsLiteracyWarsAIDS deathsTerrorist attacksDebt ratioUnemploymentCalories per capitaHealth careForest landsRich poor gap
…
Comparison of SOFI's
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
The problem of disaggregation
Becoming more useful: linking to decision makers
Extending the unknowable
Given a set of forecasts and the passage of time, we can check to see
Which have occurred when expected
Which have not happened but may yet
What was omitted from the study
Omitted futures are
Unknown but knowable, given the right tools
Unknown and unknowable
2
Selected Forecasts From 1964 RAND Delphi
Economically useful desalination of sea water 1970 1964-1980
Effective fertility control by oral contraceptive or other simple and inexpensive means 1970 1970-1983
Development of new synthetic ultra light materials 1971 1970-1978
Automated language translators 1972 1968-1976
New organs through transplanting or prosthesis 1972 1968-1982
Reliable weather forecasts 1975 1972-1988
Operation of a central data storage facility with wide access for generalized or 1980 1971-1991special information retrieval
Reformation of physical theory, eliminating confusion in quantum relativity and 1980 1975-1993simplifying particle theory
Implanted artificial organs made of plastic and electronic components 1981 1975-1988
3
MRI and CAT scans
Housing bubble
Cold war collapse
Nanotechnology
Green revolution
HIV/AIDs
Hubble and the Large Hadron Collider
5
Anchored in history
Extrapolative : Most forecasts most of the tim
Scheduled and planned
Popular Image
Unanchored (unknown and unknowable)
7
Plausibility
HighLow
Significance
High
Low
Extrapolative
Scheduled and planned
Popular Images
Unanchored
8
The Shape of Future Ideas
Ideas before their time, non-Gaussian, non-linear, non-extrapolative, unexpected, often seen as infeasible or undesirable, counter paradigmatic
Controlled anti-gravity Faster than light particles or waves Time travel to the past Controlled positive telepathy Discovery of the cause of the “big bang” Proof that we are indeed alone in the
universe Youth pill Understanding cellular differentiation
16
Greed, corruption, and deceit led to a world recession
Over $1 trillion is paid in bribes each year; organized crime takes in over $2 trillion
Most of the annual 50 million tons of e-waste is dumped in developing countries
12–27 million people are slaves today
Media focuses on trivial news, and encourages unneeded products and unethical behavior.
The Chinese godmother case China’s education minister in a corruption scandal Is China is stripping Africa of raw materials? New US 'hate crime' legislation that adds sexual
orientation to other protected categories Shooting in Afghanistan: where is the breaking
point Insider trading prosecution using big stick Former commissioner of the NYPD pleaded guilty
to corruption charges A dozen states sue drug manufacturer over
allegations of kickbacksSource: [email protected]; Nov 9, 2009
Low Corruption
High Corruption
Principles of conduct (human behavior not “things”)
Right vs. wrong (legal vs. illegal) -easy Right vs. right- tough
Ends based Utilitarian- greatest good for greatest number
Rules based Kantian: behavior followed by everyone
Care based Golden rule
Source: Institute for Global Ethics
Justice vs. Mercy The death penalty
Short-term vs. long term The stimulus package
Individual vs. Community Cheating on taxes
Truth vs. Loyalty Whistle blowing
Source: Institute for Global Ethics
The airline captain and the dying passenger
The cash flows in Bosnia
The prospect for avalanche or bankruptcy
Question: Does the acceleration of science,
and the technology that follows, lead to a better world?
Government social marketing Positive weather control Cheap fresh water from salt water Massively destructive cyber-attacks Attempts at revival of extinct species Large scale improvement in life expectancy Chemicals for improving intelligence Invisibility cloaking Brain decoding
Early '80's Venezuela: Minister of State for the Development of Human Intelligence.
The country was 85% illiterate Mission: to raise the level of intelligence of the nation New mothers: taught foundations of intelligence for
their babies 20 five-minute spots on TV channels and in community The arts and thinking skills were taught University professors: how to be thought-provoking Worker training programs for illiterate adults
http://www.newhorizons.org/trans/international/dickinson_venezuela.htm
Chimeras: laboratory mice with human brain cells Mapping the synapses Human- computer symbiosis, (neural caps) Human to human transfer: synapse interconnect Brain boosters Computers as legal persons with emotions Methods to improve collective intelligence Tailored psychotropes (dream pills) Intuition, spiritual, and para-psychological phenomena Thought-control technology
Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG
Millennium Project, 2004- 05
Identify the key ethical issues of the next 50 years
Identify the key solution principles.
300 participants Europe, Latin America, North America, Asia,
Middle East, Africa Academics, consultants, NGO’s, government,
corporate
Round 1 Identify unique issues, promising to change human
behavior, for better or worse. (Time periods: 2010, 2025, 2050)
1300 suggestions, edited to 870 Statements about ethical decision principles
Round 2 For ethical issues: judge importance and difficulty to
resolve For the ethical decision principles: judge how widely
the principles might be accepted
Ethical Norms
FreedomJusticeCompassionDrivers
InstinctMediaReligionFamilyTechnology
Decision Principles
People are responsible for actionsSurvival is the highest priority.Hippocratic Oath: Do no harm.Golden rule
Ethical Issues Come From Conflict
“Privacy” vs. “Security of the group”
Technology
Economics
Natural Phenomena
Terrorism
Drivers
•Culture:•The family is the fundamental nucleus •Religion•Tradition
•The social environment•Violence in the media .•Demographics•Peers (or anti peers)
•Technology and science
Ethical Norms
Global ethical norms are as important as international laws.
-Primacy of the family-Democracy, freedom .-Protection of the planet-Justice-Compassion-Security-Value of imagination -Value of the human being-Love of people, animals, nature
Decision Principles
•Access to education is a fundamental right.
•The rights of women and children are uninfringeable
•Be fair
•Consider the environment and biodiversity
•Human survival is the highest priority.
•Make decisions which do no harm.
•Science, technology should serve society, rather than just pursue knowledge.
Ethical Issues Come From Conflict
Technology Economics
Natural Phenomena
Terrorism
•Is it ethical for society to create artificially intelligent elites?
•Should there be limits to pursuit of happiness?
•Should elimination of aging be available to all?
•Is it right to create intelligent “beings” that can compete with humans?
Ethical Issues Come From Conflict
Technology Economics
Natural Phenomena
Terrorism
•Should there be a right to suicide, euthanasia?
•Will it be right to modify newborns future violent behavior (search for SIMAD?)
•Is it ethical to extend lifespan at any cost?
The right to see or to be not seen
The right to influence
The right to constrain based on anticipation
The right to intervene based on behavior
Some principles apply across time (in top 10 across time):
▪Access to education is a fundamental human right.
▪People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.
▪Human survival as a species is the highest priority.
▪Treat other people the way you would like to be treated.
▪Science and technology should serve society, rather than pursue knowledge for its own sake.
Promote human survival Take responsibility Would it be acceptable if you were
recipient Promote education Use science and technology to serve
society
Care for future generations Do no harm Have universal applicability Show compassion, justice, fairness. Safeguard the rights of women and children Mitigate suffering
Would you want everyone to do as you have done? (Rule based)
Does it benefit more people than it hurts (Ends based)
Would you want it done to you? (Care based)
Do no harm (Hippocratic oath)
Would you mind seeing it in the NYT?
TransinstitutionsMany challenges cannot be addressed by existing organizations acting alone.
A New Decision Training CurriculumIrrational decisions, lessons of history, futures research, cognitive science, statistics, decision support methods, collective intelligence, ethics, goal seeking, risk, leadership, transparency, accountability, participatory decisionmaking .
Keep humans in the loopMuch decision making can be automated, but autonomous systems carry danger.