The use of opinion polls data in the Arab Human Development Report 2016
Youth in the Arab Region: Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality
Jad ChaabanAmerican University of Beirut
Team Leader, UNDP Arab Human Development Report 2016
ERF – IFI Worshop25/08/2016
AHDR 2016 key stats• Team of more than 30 persons
– 7 Chapter authors from 6 different countries + 6 co-authors– 11 Background Papers authors from 8 different countries– 2 Core Research Team members– 4 assigned researchers from UNDP-RBAS
• Data:– Gallup World Poll– World Values Survey– ILO School to Work Transition Surveys– AHDR Arab Youth Time-Use Survey– Other macro data
• Research software:– Mendeley database, Smartsheet tool, Stata
2
AHDR Research Process
3
Consultative ProcessWritingResearch Preparatory
Stage
Key Activities
• Selecting and drafting TORs of core team
• Methodology Discussions• Selecting Youth
Consultative Groups and Advisory Board
• Core Meeting• Survey and data ToRs and
partners
Overall Report Concept and Chapter outlines
Topics and authors of background papers
Empirical and data work Survey development and
implementation Creation of research
support material
Chapters Background Papers First Draft of Overall
Report Research Meetings
Second Core Group Meeting
1st Draft compilation and submission
Youth and advisory board feedback meetings
Final Draft Editorial Activities
1 2 3 4
Jan-Feb 2014 Feb-Aug 2014 Feb- Aug 2014 May-Dec 2014
Main message
• A comprehensive and detailed analysis of the challenges youth face in terms of the human development process.
• It calls for bringing youth in the Arab region back into the center – politically, economically and socially – by giving them a stake in their societies
• Young Arabs could be effective agents of positive change provided their capabilities are recognized, developed and called upon.
More than 100 million young men and women (15‐29) in Arab countries30% of total population – among the highest rates in the world
0
5
10
15
20
25
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Shar
e of
you
th p
opul
atio
n
Arab States
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America andCarribeanNorth America
Oceania
Evolution of the share of youth (15-24) in total population (highest in world ~ 20%)
Historical Global Youth Unemployment Rates
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2014. “Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24) (modeled ILO estimate)”
Widening gap between the rich and the poor, with highest income inequality in the world
Evolution of average annual household income US$ PPP
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Poorest_ArabPoorest_MICRichest_ArabRichest_MIC
Source: Arab Human Development Report 2015 (forthcoming). MIC: Middle Income Countries group
Difficulty of Acquiring Decent Accommodation:A Flat Costs >8 Years of Salary for an Individual
Ratios of house price to income, 2011
85.1 6.4
9.412
18.3 18.4
24.8
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OECDaverage
Bahrain UAE Iraq Syria Morocco Egypt Tunisia Algeria
House prices to average annual salaries
Source: Chaaban, 2013 (AHDR research paper series: “Expanding Youth Opportunities in the Arab region”).
Values, Identities and Civic Participation
• Young Arabs experience less satisfaction and are able to exercise less control over their future than otherwise similar youth elsewhere in the world.
• Less conservative values in recent years, including growing support for gender equality and greater civic involvement.
• Youth remain conservative in many dimensions compared with youth in countries at similar levels of development, especially on gender equality, the separation of religion and the state, social and religious tolerance, and obedience.
Values, Identities and Civic Participation
• Opinions have changed markedly in two directions since the uprisings of 2011: one liberating and one conservative.
• There are large variations, but the region shows many commonalities, as demonstrated most dramatically by the rapid spread of fresh political ideas emanating from the uprisings.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Before Arab up
risings
After Arab uprisings
Youth TotalGallup
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2000 2008 2013
By cohorts
Jordan youth Morocco youth Egypt youth
Iraq youth Arab countries youth MIC youth excludingAMIC youth
Jordan 50+ Morocco 50+ Egypt 50+
Iraq 50+ Arab countries 50+ MIC 50+ excludingAMIC 50+
WVS