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The use of forward looking information at UBA
State – Challenge - Vision
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Content of the presentation
1. Organisation of UBA – Flow of information
2. Environmental reporting
3. „Greenhouse gases“ – an example of presenting data.
4. Looking into the future…
5. The Vision: What do we want to reach?
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Organisation of UBA
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With more detail...
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Environmental Reporting …
Highly aggregated
indice
Key-Indicators
Core-Indicators
Basic-Raw-Data
Interpretated Data
And where is the forward looking information?
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Presentation of data: e.g. Emission of GHG…
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But also in the future
• “data related to reporting of Policies and Measures and Projected Emissions required under Article 3(2) of the Monitoring Mechanism Decision (Commission Decision 280/2004/EC) and elaborated in Articles 8, 9 and 10 of the Implementing Provisions (Commission Decision 2005/166/EC) and UNFCCC reporting guidelines for national communications (FCCC/CP/1999/7)”
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For example: Projections …
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… model and scenario based…
-IKARUS-ELIAS-ASTRA-PowerACE-ISI-GreenX
CO2
N2O
Policy-scenarios
CF
e.g. TREMOD
Megatrends
MeasuresCH4
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Looking to the future…
• Aprox. 20 Models in use
• Around 10 scenario studies ongoing
IKARUS
RAUMIS/GAS-EM
WI/DLR
TREMOD-4
REMO/WETTREG
Energy reference scenario
Long term scenarios
Policy scenarios III
Policy scenarios IV
Reference scenarioEfficiency scenarioSustainability scenario
Expansion of renewable energies - scenario
Reference scenario
BASIS IBASIS IINatureConservationPlus INatureConservationPlus II
NAWARO-AREAS BAU I scenarioBAU II scenario
Models
BASiS Reference scenarioSustainability scenario
Scenarios of emissions from agriculture
Climate scenarios
Scenario studies Scenarios
A1BA1B2
Model basic scenario
Reductions scenario IIReductions scenario I
Measures-scenario
Additional-measures-scenario
FEA-energy reference scenarioo
Basic scenarioScenario 1
IssuesReference scenario ofEnquete-commission
PROGNOS/EWI
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Methodological overview...
G
R
YY N N
1. Q ualita tive2. Q uantitative3. Hybrid
Type
OrientationAnticipatory Exploratory
2
3
1
2
3
1
baseline scenariopolicy scenario
Furtherdifferentiations
1. Energy reference scenario2. Policy scenarios III3. Policy scenarios IV4. Long term scenarios5. Expansion of renewable energies scenario6. NAWARO-AREAS7. BASiS8. Climate scenarios9. Scenarios of emissions from agriculture
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And internationally...
G
R
JJ N N
1. Q ualita tive2. Q uantitative3. hybrid
Type
OrientationAnticipatory Exploratory
2
3
1
2
3
1
baseline scenariopolicy scenario
Furtherdifferentiations
1. Meadows: Limits to Growth
2. GEO-3 Scenarios (RIVM/UNEP,2003)
3. Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice (SEI/GSG,)
4. Bending the curve: Toward Global Sustainability (SEI/GSG, 1998)
5. Scenarios Europe 2010: Five possible futures for Europe (European Commission Forward Studies Unit, 1999)
6. VISIONS (European Commission, 2001)
7. Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC, 2000)
8. Global Scenarios 2000-2050 (WBCSD, 1998)
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And the vision...
• Inventory of models -> template of EEA• List of (posible) forward looking indicators• Catalogue of relevant scenario studies• Mainstreaming of basic „megatrend“ ->
Reference scenario (-> call for evidence)• Enhancing methodologies, e.g. „impact-
networks“, cross-impact-analysis, etc.
„Key for standardized reporting
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Thank you very much for your attention!