THE STATE OF THE
CONFERENCE
Purpose:The Mississippi Annual Conference–
empowered by love, generosity, justice and apprenticeship– forms
spiritual leaders, faith communities and connections so more disciples of
Jesus Christ transform the world.
The Larger Picture
For the last ten years worship attendance has decreased on average 52,383 per year.
The Denomination’s Decline
Disassembly of Structure: 1974-2012
District Study Districts 534 Churches 32,000
Regression Results
An increase of ten churches in a district is expected to decrease district worship attendance by 1.07%
Projections: Constant Decline
By 2030, the average district will have 32.4% more local churches
than in 1990.
Projections: Constant Decline
By 2030, the denomination in the U.S. will likely have declined to a point in which a turnaround is not possible. By 2050, the
connection will have collapsed.
Average Attendance of the General Church
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
2014 -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
General Church
Average Attendance of Mississippi
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
2014 -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Mississippi
Payout Rate for the General Church
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201478.00%
80.00%
82.00%
84.00%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
92.00%
94.00%
General Church
Payout Rate for Mississippi
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201472.00%
74.00%
76.00%
78.00%
80.00%
82.00%
84.00%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
Mississippi
Combined Graph
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201465.00%
70.00%
75.00%
80.00%
85.00%
90.00%
95.00%
MississippiGeneral Church
Stages of Development
1950-1970 Developing awareness 1970-1990 Debating causes of decline 1990-2010 Exploring solutions 2010-2030 Crisis: last chances 2030-2050 Selling off the assets
2015-2030 Final Window?
Is a turnaround possible within the remaining time? At what point does the
leadership lose hope?
Challenges
Strapped by disciplinary requirements and declining funds
Strapped by “heritage” spending, pensions and health benefit costs, and limited budgets
Most lack effective leadership Most are poorly located Many have the capacity to grow
General Conference
Annual Conferences
Local Churches
An Orchestrated Turnaround 1.New Church Starts
2. Church Revitalization a. Benchmark b. Healthy Church Initiative c. Others?
3. Clergy Leadership a. Recruitment b. Training
4.Episcopal Leadership a. Conclaves (SCJ, NEJ) b. Projections (six annual conferences)
Projected Turnaround
Requirements: new church starts, proven revitalization programs national in scope, no shortage of trained
elders and God’s blessings.