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The singularity is coming
Takuya MatsudaProfessor Emeritus of Kobe University
2015/10/28Code Blue
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The Problem of the Year 2045When Computers surpass Humankind
• Kosaido Shoten• 2013, January• Keibundo Book Award
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What is the technological singularity? • The date when the superintelligence (SI) will
appear– 2045? (R. Kurzweil)
• What is the superintelligence?– Entity far more intelligent than human
• The date when intelligence explosion will occur– AI will rewrite its own code (I.J. Good)
• Science and technology developed enormously by SI– Human society will be hugely influenced
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Hollywood view of Artificial Intelligence
映画 Matrix
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2001 A Space OdysseyHAL9000: Strong AI
Stanley Kubrick, 1998
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The TerminatorSkynet, Killer robots
James Cameron, 1985
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Ghost in the Shell: Cyborg, Cyberbrain
Masamune Shirow, 1991; Film 1995, 2004 (Mamoru Oshii), 2011, 2013,
2015
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The Matrix: Neo and the ArchitectSimulated reality hypothesis
The Wachowski Brothers, 1999
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Her: Virtual assistant
Spike Jonze, 2013
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Transcendence: Mind Uploading
Wally Pfister, 2014
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Lucy: Superhuman
Luc Besson, Scarlett Johanson, 2014
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Ex-Machina: Turing test
Alex Garland, 2015
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Classification of superintelligence (SI)
• Machine SI– Terminator, Matrix
• Public image
• Superhuman– Biologically enhanced human
– Lucy• Not plausible
• Intelligent Amplification (IA)– Ghost in the shell
• Most likely
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Classification of artificial intelligence
• Narrow AI
– Specific purposes
– Current AI
– Chess machine, Shogi machine, Watson
– Siri ( Virtual assistant )
• Artificial general intelligence (AGI)
– Human-like AI
– With common sense
– 2029? (R. Kurzweil)
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Path to the AGI
• Biological path
– Emulate the neocortex
• Mathematical path
– Deep Learning, Fashionable
• Engineering path
– Current classical AI
– Watson
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Road to the singularity• 2015-2029
– Smart machine (Gartner)
– Technological unemployment
• 2029: Pre-singularity
– AGI with 1H (Human)?
– Pass the Turing test? (R. Kurzweil)
– The ghost in the shell (M. Shirow)
• 2045: The singularity
– Intellectual capacity of all human combined (109-
10H) (R. Kurzweil)
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When the singularity will occur?
• Specialist opinion poll
• 2020s: 10%
• 2040-2050: 50%
• 21st century: 90%
• Never happen:10%
– Superintelligence (Nick Bostrom, 2014)
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World view after singularity
• Utopian view
– R. Kurzweil
– Immortal
– SI will solve all awkward problems
• Apocalyptic view
– Humankind will be terminated or enslaved
– Hollywood view
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Argument of AI threat
• Stephan Hawking (Astrophysicist)
• Elon Musk (Tesla Morters)
– AI is nuke!
– But investment to the AI company Vicarious
• Bill Gates (Microsoft)
– MS invests AI hugely
• Hollywood view
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Specialists do not agree the AI threat
• Very good: 20%
• Good: 40%
• Neutral: 15%
• Bad: 15%
• Very bad: 10%
– Superintelligence (Nick Bostrom, 2014)
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Realistic world after singularity
• SI and humankind will coexist
• Widening gap between nations?
– Nations with SI and those without
– Developed countries and developing countries in the 21st century
• Widening gap between individuals?
– Rich people only will be saved?
– Elysium
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Society we should look for after the singularity, 1
• Omnipotent and omnibenevolent superintteligence?
– Global brain?
• Need not to work?
– Everybody are teachers of culture centers
– Basic income will be provided by the government
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Ancient Greek and Rome
• Slaves performed works
• Citizens did research, sports, entertainment
• Ancient Athens: Population of some hundred thousand– Some ten thousand citizens and hundred
thousand slaves
• Future society– Robots with AI do works
– All human do research, sports and entertainment
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Ancient Greek Life
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Political and social implication of SI
Owner of SI can dominate the world
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Turning points of humankind
• Agricultural revolution: 10000 y ago
– Settlement, village, city, nation
• Industrial revolution: 250 y ago
– Successful developed countries
• Europe, America and Japan
– Unsuccessful developing countries
• China and India
• Coming another industrial revolution
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China’s past failure
• China was traditionally big and advanced country• Early Ming dynasty (1405-1433)• Zheng He’s expedition• Fleet of 317 ships holding 28,000 crewmen• Brunei, Java, Thailand, India, Africa and Arabia• China could become a world empire• But destroid all records• Spain (1492), Portugal (1498), Netherland,
England dominated ocean• West dominates the world hereafter
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Japanese marginal success
• End of Edo era• Four American warships visited Japan and gave a
huge shock• Expulsion of foreigners!
– Nonsensical slogan– Satsuma and Choshu were defeated by foreign forces
• Iwakura Mission to America and Europe– Change the foreign policy to open the country
• Rulers are Shogun, Daimyo and Kuge– Samurai of lower class worked hard
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Iwakura Mission
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Present and future Japan
• Present time is analogous to the end of Edo era– Sleeping in peace
• SI will be future black warships• Ruling class must awake
– Politician, Bureaucrat, Entrepreneur, Media
• Present patriot– Instead of marshal arts and Dutch studies,
Mathematics, Computer and English are needed– Capable people who can build SI– Petite genius
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Present and Near Future of AI
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Can one stop the advance of AI?No!!
• Two motivation of promotion of AI
• Military: Pentagon
– US national security: Topmost important factor
– Challenge by China
• Money: Wall Street
– Search and advertisement
– Home, Industry, Military Robots
• Cannot stop it
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Governmental level
• EU
– Human Brain Project
– Simulate human brain by super computer
– 160 B Yen in 10 years
– By 2023
• USA
– Brain Initiative
– Clarify the functions of brain
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IT giants and AI
• Microsoft
• IBM: Watson、SyNAPSE、Cortical Processor
• Baidu: Artificial Intelligence Institute,
– Andrew Ng
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Competition on AI
• Manhattan project of AI
• Google secured many AI researchers
• Deep Mind
• Deep Learning: J. Hinton
• Singularity: R. Kurzweil
• Japanese startup for humanoid robots: SHAFT
• Intelligent people are the most important factor in future society
• Buy genius?
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Ambition of Google
• Google glass• Google cat• Autonomous cars• D-Wave quantum computers• Hire R. Kurzweil• DeepMind: 65 B Yen• Buy 8 robots company• NEST: 320 B Yen• Artificial satellite: 50 B Yen
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Japanese programs
• Dwango AI Institute
• Recruit AI Institute
• AIST
• Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
• Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
• US IT Corp: Western Governments: Japan=100:10:1
• Japan will almost certainly lose
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Singularity from Japan!!
• Dr. Motoaki Saito
– “Shock by Exa-scale”
– Medical doctor of Tokyo Univ.
• Successful startup at Silicon valley
• Development of supercomputer in Japan
– 7 months+4months
– Top Green 500 2015, 1-3 position
• Exa-scale supercomputer is possible by 2020
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Neuro Synaptic Processing Unit
• Current PEZY chip: 1024 cores• 10^11cores, 10^14 interconnect• By 2020-2025• Human brain
– 10^11 neurons, 10^14 synapses
• Within 6-8 litter• 10^7-10^10 times more capable than human
brain• Singularity from Japan!!??• Hardware will be OK. Software is our target.
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My SI and IA
• Hardware is Saito machine (2020-2025)
• Software: HTM theory? HSTM theory?
• Synthesized neocortex is on the cloud
• Humans contact with it through wearable
• All information are there
• Help scientific research, paper writing and experiment
• Scientific explosion
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My roadmap
• Skank-works type institution• 10-30 petit genius• 30 million yen/person, year• 15 years development time• 4.5-13.5 B Yen
– F35: 14 B Yen
• Huge increase of productivity• Exa-scale supercomputer• 25 B Yen
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Intelligence amplification
• We already amplify our brain – Books, Wikipedia
– Smartphone, HMD
• Human and AI are unified– Virtual assistant like Siri
• Non invasive manner– HMD, Brain waves
• Invasive manner– Chips in the brain
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Give rise to the singularity from Japan
• Essential to save aging Japan
• Japan will almost certainly lose
• Let us make superintelligent machine
– Saito’s brain computer
• Let us invent The Master Algorithm
• Young power is necessary