The Second International Seville Future-oriented Technology Analysis Seminar
Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts
Mu RongpingInstitute of Policy and Management, Chine
se Academy of Sciences 2006-9-29
Outline
Introduction
Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China
Methodology for Technology Foresight
Major Result of Delphi Survey
Impact of the Research on Decision-making
Introduction
National Goals of China
well-off society in 2020
Quadruple GDP of the year 2000 by 2020
Industrialization
Innovation-Driven Country
Improve the capability of innovation
Environment-friendly society
Resource-conserving society
Introduction
How to achieve the national goals?
Improve capabilities
Technological capability
Innovation capability
Priority setting
To identify the technology fields with priority
To identify the clustering technologies with priority
IntroductionThe purposes of the “Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China”
To explore a set of systematical methods for technology foresight;
To build the scenarios for China development in 2020 so as to identify technology demands;
To conduct the Delphi Survey so as to set the priority of technologies;
To establish the interactive platform for government-industry-university-academia;
To foster the foresight culture in China.
Outline
Introduction
Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China
Methodology for Technology Foresight
Major Result of Delphi Survey
Impact of the Research on Decision-making
Framework International Comparison
of the Technology Foresight Activities
Feasibility Study of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China
Scheme for Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China
Scheme Simulation
Short-term Technology Forecasting
(within 5 years)
Long-term Technology Foresight based on
Delphi Survey
Schem
e Revision
Framework
Selecting Critical Technologies
Making Related Policies
International Comparison
Statistics and Analyses
Selecting &
Tracking
Methods
Forecasting,Data-mining
Comparing the Results of Forecasting and Delphi Survey
Preparing Stage
Implementing Stage
MakingScheme
SelectingParticipants
ChoosingTopics
Compiling Questionnaires
The first -round survey
The second -round survey
The Scenario Building: identification for national demand for science and technology
Outline
Introduction
Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China
Methodology for Technology Foresight
Major Result of Delphi Survey
Impact of the Research on Decision-making
MethodologiesScenario Building
Visions of 2020 in China
The Demand of Technology in the Comprehensive Well-off Society
Globalization Society Industrialization Society
Information Society Urbanization Society
Consumption Society Circulation Society
MethodologiesGeneration of the Technology Topics
scenario building-- The APEC Center for Technology Foresight . DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post-genomic Era [M] . Published by: the APEC technology foresight center, national science and technology development agency . Bangkok : Thailand , 2003 : 136.
nomination by experts
rolling revision technology topics of previous round Delphi Survey
-- NISTEP REPORT No. 71 . The Seventh Technology Foresight—Future Technology in Japan toward the Year 2030 (Section 2: pp.121~261)[Z] . Tokyo July 2001 : 135.
MethodologiesGeneration of the Technology Topics
GR
G
E G F
EG
SF 1
EG
SF 2
EG
SF i
EG
SF
n
. . . . . . . . . . . .
p rim al to p ic s
su ppo rt
prim
al to
pics
p rim al to p ic s
d is s c us s and exam ine
m ature to p ic s
c yc le d in s e ve ral t im e s
Note:
EGF= Expert Group of Field
EGSF= Expert Groups for Sub-Field
MethodologiesDelphi Survey: field
ICT and Electronics
Energy Materials
Resources and Environment
Space
manufacture
Biology and Medicine
Chemistry and chemical technology
12 3
4
5
6
7
8
Delphi: Divide Sub-fields
ICT and Electronics
1. Computer
2. Man-machine conversation and intelligent dispose3. Software
6. micro-electronics, photoelectron and MEMS
7. Display and store of information
9. network
10. Security technology of information
11. Broadcast and television12. Applications of IT
4. Communication technology
5. Bio-Informatics
8. Information retrieval and sensors
Methodologies
Delphi: Divide Sub-fields
Energy
1. Coal, petroleum and natural gas
4. Electric power
6. Heat energy and mechanical energy
2. Renewable Energy
3. Nuclear energy
5. Hydrogen energy
Methodologies
Delphi: Divide Sub-fields
Materials
1. Macromolecule materials
4. Functional materials
6. Nano materials
2. Metal materials
3. Inorganic materials and Ceramic materials
5. Photoelectron materials
Methodologies
Delphi: Divide Sub-fields
Biology and Medicine
1. Platform technology
2. Measurement for bio-technique and bionimetic technology
5. Prevention and therapy disease
7. Stem-cell and regenerative medicine
8. Cognition and human behavior science
3. The process technology of biology catalyze and transform4. Agriculture and environment
6. Discover and development of new medicines
Methodologies
Generation of the Technology Topics: Stages
elucidation widespread usepractical usedevelopment
Methodologies
Delphi Survey: Questionnaire
Methodologies
Im p o rtance
T o p ics
fo r th e gro w th o f eco n o m y
fo r th e im p ro vem en t o f life q u a lity
fo r th e secu rity o f C h in a
F easib ilityF easib ility in tech n o lo gy rea liza tio n
P o ssib ility o f th e tech n o lo gy accep ted b y m arke t
D ifficu lty o f rea liza t io n
R estric ted b y "p o licy/ stan d ard / law "
R estric ted b y "h u m an reso u rce"
R estric ted b y "research in frastru c tu re"
R estric ted b y "research fu n d "
T he t im e o f rea liza t io n
C ap ab ility a t p re sen tIn te rn a tio n a l lead in g sta tu s
E q u al to th e in te rn a tio n a l leve l
F a lls b eh in d to th e in te rn a tio n a l leve l
b efo re 2 0 1 0
b e tw een t 2 0 1 1 an d 2 0 2 0
u n fo reseen
afte r 2 0 2 1
L ead ing co u ntry/a reas
U S A
E U
R u ssia
Jap an
O th ers
----- contribution to economy increase
----- improve of quality of life
----- contribute to the security system
124
124
321
332211
TTT
TITITII
ImportanceDegree of familiar
Very important Important Important in somewhat unimportant Total
High N11 N12 N13 N14 T1
Medium N21 N22 N23 N24 T2
Low N31 N32 N33 N34 T3
Don’t konw N41 N42 N43 N44 T4
Methodologies
Three importance indexes
Integrate three importance index
222222int 000 SQESQEegrate IIIIIII =)-()-()-(=
Among them:
EI
QI
SI
:Index of “contribution to economy increase”
:Index of “improve the quality of life”
:Index of “contribute to the security system”
Methodologies
Forecasted realization time of the topics:
Among them:
Q1 : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 25th percentile of all responses after they were arranged in chronological order from the earliest to the latest realization time.
M : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 50th percentile.
Q2 : Forecasted realization time corresponding to the response at the 75th percentile.
Methodologies
iR
iT
)B1)(T1(R iii
Feasibility of the topics realization :
Among them:
: feasibility of the topics realization
iB
: infeasibility in technology realization
: infeasibility in market realization
Methodologies
LHJJLX
JJLX
RRR
RRRI
RI
LXR
JJR
LHR
: Index of research level of the topics in China
: the number of experts who selected “leader”
: the number of experts who selected “international level”
: the number of experts who selected “get behind”
Research level index of the topics in China :
Among them:
Methodologies
Outline
Introduction
Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China
Methodology for Technology foresight
Major Result of Delphi Survey
Impact of the Research on Decision-making
Forecasted Realization Time of Technology
Results
73
18
3235
76
6055
33
2016 15
2014
3 2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
forecasted realization time
num
ber
of to
pics
Top 10 : Integrated Index of Importance
Results
(1) The solar cell will be developed successfully, which transfer efficiency reaches as high as 50%;
(2) The new technology about biological energy will be developed successfully, which can continuous produce ethanol with straw, biological diesel, hydrocarbon compound and so on;
(3) The metal material obtains the large-scale use, which has nature of high intensity and light weight;
(4) The most security and cheapest control technologies of large-scale electrical network obtains the widespread use;
(5) The technologies about biology processing and mining for crude oil develop successfully;
Top 10 : Integrated Index of Importance
Results
(6) The anti-viral medicine with highly efficiency applies to clinical medicine widely;
(7) The technologies about biochemistry, immunity, and gene etc. applies to food quarantine widely;
(8) The important character gene which decide the yield, quality and resistance of crops obtains comprehensive annotation and get practical use with biological technology;
(9) The 10nm processing technology obtains widespread use in the scale production, and integration rate of the integrated circuit achieves the 1000G transistor;
(10) The defense and monitoring system of harmful biology will be established for public security.
Outline
Introduction
Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China
Methodology for Technology foresight
Major Result of Delphi Survey
Impact of the Research on Decision-making
Impacts
The Impact on the Scientific Community
The experts network
--- 60 top scientists from four research fields
--- more than 320 scientists from 32 sub-fields
“Technology Demands from the Construction of Well off Society”
--- 60 top social scientists to participate in the forum
Impacts
The Impact on Decision-making
The strategic study of med-and long term plan for science and technology development
The mid-and long term plan for science and technology development of CAS
President Hu Jingtao mentioned to strengthen the technology foresight in his speech at the annual congress of academicians of the CAS and CAE in June 2004
the Ministry of Education, Shanghai and Beijing Municipality have used the results of Delphi survey
Impacts
The Impact on the Public Understanding of Science and Technology
Impacts
The Impact on the Public Understanding of Science and Technology
The media such as the Science Times always pays attention to the study;
The Journal of High-Technology & Industrialization has serialized the results of “the Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China”, and the interviews of research group;
More than 574,000 websites concerning “Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China” (in Chinese) could be easily found with the search engine “google”;
Xinhua News Agency has also reported some results of the “Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China”, which were cited by many other medias.
Some readers even urge us to publish simplified version so as to ease the public understanding.
Contact to the speaker:
Name: Mu Rongping Tel: +8610 6254 2618 Fax: +8610 6254 2619 E-mail: [email protected] Address: Zhongguancun Donglu NO. 55, Beijing, P.R. China Postcode: 100080 Website: www.casipm.ac.cn