The Power of Dynamic The Power of Dynamic ThinkingThinking
Reaching Across Boundaries in Reaching Across Boundaries in Default AversionDefault Aversion
Will that doctor be sued?Will that doctor be sued?
What is the number one determinant – What is the number one determinant – identified by statisticians and actuaries – identified by statisticians and actuaries – as to whether or not a doctor will be sued? as to whether or not a doctor will be sued?
Keeping It Simple Isn’t Always RightKeeping It Simple Isn’t Always Right
Doctor Treats PatientDoctor Treats Patient Doctor Makes A Mistake
Doctor Makes A Mistake Doctor SuedDoctor Sued
Static Model:Static Model:
Will that doctor be sued?Will that doctor be sued?
Q:Q: What is the number one determinant – What is the number one determinant – identified by statisticians and actuaries – identified by statisticians and actuaries – as to whether or not a doctor will be sued? as to whether or not a doctor will be sued?
A:A: The amount of time that a doctor spends The amount of time that a doctor spends with that patient with that patient Gladwell, M. (2007). Gladwell, M. (2007). Blink: The Power of Thinking Blink: The Power of Thinking
Without ThinkingWithout Thinking
Dynamic ThinkingDynamic Thinking
Static thinking is a formalized process that depicts Static thinking is a formalized process that depicts events but does not address the underlying forces events but does not address the underlying forces (dynamics) that may have an impact on that event or (dynamics) that may have an impact on that event or series of events. series of events.
Dynamic thinking is the study of the interconnected Dynamic thinking is the study of the interconnected relationships on an event and the impact of those relationships on an event and the impact of those interactions upon the outcomes of the system. interactions upon the outcomes of the system.
Keeping It Simple Isn’t Always RightKeeping It Simple Isn’t Always Right
Doctor Treats PatientDoctor Treats Patient
Doctor Makes A Mistake
Doctor Makes A Mistake
Doctor SuedDoctor Sued
Dynamic Model:Dynamic Model:
Doctor Builds A Relationship w/ Patient
Doctor Builds A Relationship w/ Patient
Patient EvaluatesMalpractice Relative
To Relationship
Patient EvaluatesMalpractice Relative
To Relationship
Doctor Not SuedDoctor Not Sued
Static vs. Dynamic Thinking and PolicyStatic vs. Dynamic Thinking and Policy
Static Model: Static Model: Policies that give patients less Policies that give patients less face-time with the doctorface-time with the doctor
Dynamic Model: Dynamic Model: Policies that don’t just focus Policies that don’t just focus on fewer mistakes, but that focus on the on fewer mistakes, but that focus on the patientpatient
Default Prevention: Default Prevention: Static vs. DynamicStatic vs. Dynamic
Effective default prevention is a Effective default prevention is a dynamic process dynamic process
We cannot take a picture of it We cannot take a picture of it because there are several because there are several interrelated, moving partsinterrelated, moving parts
One-Minute Recap of One-Minute Recap of Previous SymposiaPrevious Symposia
Session 1: Session 1: Provided context to this discussion Provided context to this discussion by telling us about the state-of-mind of our by telling us about the state-of-mind of our studentsstudents
Session 2: Session 2: Gave us specific information about Gave us specific information about our students’ borrowing habits as well as a our students’ borrowing habits as well as a fundamental basis for institutional research fundamental basis for institutional research
Static Default Prevention Model Static Default Prevention Model
Student Takes Out Loan
Borrower Goes 270 Days W/out
Payment
Borrower Defaults
Static Default Prevention Model Static Default Prevention Model
Student Takes Out Loan
Borrower Goes 270 Days W/out
PaymentBorrower Defaults
Student Borrower Drops Out of School
What are the dynamic forces that What are the dynamic forces that affect student loan default? affect student loan default?
Failing classes: positive correlation with defaultFailing classes: positive correlation with default
Number of credit hours (mixed results): negative correlation Number of credit hours (mixed results): negative correlation with defaultwith default
Whether or not they work outside of school (mixed results): Whether or not they work outside of school (mixed results): negative correlation with defaultnegative correlation with default
GPA: negative correlation with defaultGPA: negative correlation with default
Feelings about school/education: negative correlation with Feelings about school/education: negative correlation with defaultdefault
Graduate: negative correlation with defaultGraduate: negative correlation with default
““Student Success” Student Success”
1. Increase year-to-year retention
2. Increase degree completion
3. Increase on-time completion rates
Examining Policies With Examining Policies With Dynamics In Mind Dynamics In Mind
Default Aversion PolicyDefault Aversion PolicyStudent
Examining Policies With Examining Policies With Dynamics In Mind Dynamics In Mind
Why So Difficult? Why So Difficult?
Follow the Money – It’s All About Access Follow the Money – It’s All About Access • College readiness dollars come to less than College readiness dollars come to less than
one percent of all other federal grant and one percent of all other federal grant and campus-based fundscampus-based funds
Percentage of students that require Percentage of students that require remediation is up to around 60 percentremediation is up to around 60 percent
Access v. SuccessAccess v. Success Country Participation Completion
New Zealand 89 54
Sweden 79 60
Finland 73 71
Australia 70 67
United States 63 54
Netherlands 56 76
UK 52 78
Korea 48 83
Ireland 44 83
Spain 44 74
Japan 43 91
Austria 37 55
Germany 37 73
Belgium 34 74
Greece 33 79
Access v. SuccessAccess v. Success Country Participation Completion
Japan 43 91
Korea 48 83
Ireland 44 83
Greece 33 79
UK 52 78
Netherlands 56 76
Spain 44 74
Belgium 34 74
Germany 37 73
Finland 73 71
Australia 70 67
Sweden 79 60
Austria 37 55
New Zealand 89 54
United States 63 54
College Success College Success
1. Financial aid office can play a big part
2. Bridge Programs and the Financial Aid Office
3. Goals: Raising aspirations Navigating the admissions/financial aid processes Easing the transition during the first year
Examining Policies And Plans Examining Policies And Plans With Dynamics In Mind With Dynamics In Mind
Consider whether policies are Consider whether policies are well designedwell designed to achieve their to achieve their intended effectsintended effects
Adopt policies that Adopt policies that maximize net positive effectsmaximize net positive effects on key on key objectivesobjectives
Design policies that Design policies that minimize negative effectsminimize negative effects on key on key objectivesobjectives
Adopt a Adopt a mix of policiesmix of policies that in combination produce positive that in combination produce positive effectseffects
Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2007) Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2007) Strategies for Improving Student Success in Postsecondary EducationStrategies for Improving Student Success in Postsecondary Education
Student / School Relationships Student / School Relationships
Seller Questionnaire: Please answer the following questions: Seller Questionnaire: Please answer the following questions: How much would you sell your $2,500 car for to the following How much would you sell your $2,500 car for to the following people? people?
How much to a stranger?How much to a stranger? How much to a friend? How much to a friend? How much to a brother or sister that needed it?How much to a brother or sister that needed it?
How much to a nasty neighbor?How much to a nasty neighbor?
Student / School Relationships Student / School Relationships
When there is a relationship developed, the trading When there is a relationship developed, the trading range between two people, two organizations, or an range between two people, two organizations, or an organization and a person increases. organization and a person increases.
No Trade
Trade
Trade
The Student Transition The Student Transition
Random Exploration Transition Phase Establishment Phase New Beginning Phase
Focused Exploration Tentative Choices Commitment
Mary Stuart Hunter, James S. Gahagan, & Molly A. Schaller