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Rudy Stroink – urban pilot
The opportunities in a market with oversupply
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What is happening?
So there is an oversupply in real estate:
• We had a capital and production driven supply chain over
the last 20 years
• Changes in demand economically, socially and culturally
were not responded to
• Government was the the market regulator, not the private
sector
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Opdrachten voor nieuwe gebouwen aan architecten vanaf 2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
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The end of a 150 year drive
2000 1950 2050
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the fate of other industries
Production driven
Capital driven
Regulated market
Demand driven
Solution
butter X X dumping and deregulating
internet X cold restructuring
cars X X restructuring/new products
books X new business models
planes X X dumping
banks X X restructuring
real estate X X X X all of the above
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You cannot predict the future, but you can understand its challenges and develop solutions
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Necessity drives innovation
• The shortage of capital
• The oversupply in real estate stock
• The changing role of government
• The transformations in society
• Economically
• Demographically
• Culturally
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Fair Market Value
Annual report
Denial is not a river in Egypt
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shortage of capital
How to get out of the Bermuda triangle of equity?
• Coalition funding, share the pain
• Cash driven, not value driven projects
• Talk to the owners who are no longer in denial,
co-develop
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Pyramids
Platforms
3 year
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TCN real estate platform
PR
OD
UC
T
PR
OD
UC
T
PR
OD
UC
T
PR
OD
UC
T
PR
OD
UC
T
Other peoples assets
TCN ASSETS
demand
demand
demand
demand customers
Contractors Financiers
Equity Partners
Architects Government
Tenants Developers
coal
itio
ns
coalitions
16
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TCN’s evolution
Cover your ass(ets)
Garden your assets
Share your assets
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
sales
cash result
net result
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Oversupply of real estate
Find the market where you do not have to compete
• Affordable real estate allows you to provide added
value and flexibility to your customer
• Be incomparable, offer additional services
• Redevelopment has a shorter development time
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spaanse kubus / rotterdam
B2B
Large storage building transformed into a Data hotel and office club
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We now have lots of girlfriends
ATOOMCLUB
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Different role of public sector
So we have to organize our own projects
• Demand not public policies drives the market
• More location driven development, less function
driven development
• Organize your own entitlement process
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zo kan het er uit gaan zien!
Kan wat worden
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Transformations
There is an oversupply, but there is also new
demand
• Demographically
• Economically
• Culturally
aanbod
vraag
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Transformations
New working environments
Datacenters
Themed co-creation and development facilities
New housing communities for elderly
New B2B and retail solutions for a digitalized world
Breeding grounds for the creative sector
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Transformations
Old economies need new buildings,
New economies need old buildings
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Surprising places or the art of urban value
creation
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