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Methodology:
•Technical analysis•Analyse the SA All share chart •Major sector overview•Stock picks•questions
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THE ONE CHART
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Chart by MetaStock
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05
Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
2644 points (-5.2%)
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Sector performance (from January 2015):
•Resources +16.3%•Industrials +9.51%•Financials +10.75
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Distance from first support:
•Resources 10.0%•Industrials 6.0%•Financials 7.8
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Take All share:
Chart by MetaStock
2644 points (-5.2%)
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Distance from first support:
•Resources 10.0%•Industrials 6.0%•Financials 7.8•All Share 5.2%
We’ve bounced too hard too fast!
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When I think the correction will happen
It could start as soon as March futures close out
X
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Chart by MetaStock
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My logic•Resources have the furthest potential downside•Resources should lead the next correction •Industrials and Financials while strong have lagged.•The resource sector is trading at medium term resistance and Fini & Indi sectors are NOT•Industrials and financial stocks should reach their support levels sooner when the market corrects. •Don’t kid yourself! 50 000 is a massive support level and WILL be the best buying opportunity•Markets don’t go up in a straight line….We are in major over-bought territory across sectors.
We need the “kiss goodbye” for our market to continue higher
The recent rally has lasted 18 weeks!
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Chart by MetaStock
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More logic.•As selling increases VOLATILITY increases•When volatility increases, EMOTIONS become hard to control.•Volatility can make or break you.•When trading through a selling period, the less volatility, the better.
How to ride out the storm
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Volatility…
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Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
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Even more logic.•Pick the sector that will offer you the smoothest ride
How to ride out the storm
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Even more logic.•Pick the sectors that will offer you the smoothest ride•Pick stocks in those sectors
How to ride out the storm
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Here’s why;•Offers you the smoothest ride in terms of volatility•Closest to support (6%) should a correction occur•It carries the most Rand sensitive stocks (defensive)
Industrials is my preferred sector
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My storm proof trades.
Remgro•Diversified industrial•Exposure exposure to Mediclinic (defensive) and First Rand.
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My storm proof trades.
Steinhoff•Rand Hedge play•63% of it’s revenue comes from Europe.•Listing in Frankurt soon.•Soon to be the biggest furniture manufacturer in Europe
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My storm proof trades.
SABMiller•Defensive Rand Hedge play•Pound sensitive•Rugby World Cup in UK. Should see pound strength (support the price)•Potential take over target.
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•The market is over-heated in the short term•Broad based break-outs have occurred across sectors so new support MUST be re-tested•As commodity prices come more under pressure, resource stocks will lead the slide•A 5% correction is coming•The resource sector is trading at medium term resistance. resistance and Financials & Industrials are NOT•Industrials and financial stocks should reach their support levels sooner when the market corrects. •Don’t kid yourself! 50 000 is a massive support level and WILL be the best buying opportunity•The bull market should last until the end of the year but NOT before it finds support
My conclusions;
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That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to
it!
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Questions