Download - The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Market Mess: Who to believe in 2013?!
@benjaminjoffe | GMGC 2013
Geography
1. China mostly
2. US mostly
3. Mix or Other
How is your company?
1. Very profitable
2. Around breakeven
3. Not breaking even yet
I spent most of my working life (11 years) overseas, especially in Japan, China, South Korea and USA. My cultural DNA has become rather complex.
13 Years Across Asia (& some US)"
Digital Naturalist"
• 150+ talks & 500,000+ views on SlideShare
Speaker"
Mentor @ Startup Accelerators"
Angel Investor!
1. Gengo (JP) 2. TokyoOtakuMode (JP) 3. Cmune (CN) 4. TwitMusic (PH) 5. PayrollHero (PH) 6. StoryPanda (CA) 7. CuriousHat (US) 8. YoGoMe (MX) 9. TenderTree (US) 10. SmartBites (US)
Funded!
Funded!
Funded!
Funded!
Funded!
Other People’s Predictions!
Games.com Predic`ons
• Big Ktles – Temple Run – The Walking Dead
• SubscripKon model
• Kids games – Educa`onal, – Based on books, movies, TV shows
1.5 million ac`va`ons per day
1 billion by end 2013
Why am I looking down?
Market Figures!
“I’m bored. What could I play?”
$195m revenue, 45% toys"$9B Valuation?"
$2.4m / day?"$770m Valuation?"
$2m / day? TV ads"$10B Market Cap"
What in common?
$200m in 2013?"Valuation $1B?"
Market Caps
• GREE $4.0B • DENA $4.1B • Gungho $10.4B • Zynga $2.5B • EA $5.39B • Ac`vision Blizzard $16.91B
Smaller guys • Korea
– Gamevil $514 million – Come2US $458 million
• Japan – Ateam $280 million – Drecom $270 million – Crooz $265 million – Klab $187 million – Enish $124 million – Voltage $50 million – Cave $24 million – Axel Mark $24 million
$1B
$1.2B
Value Crea`on in Mobile Gaming
• Japan $20 billion • Korea $1 billion • Europe $10 billion • US ? • China ?
M&As (for memory)
• NGMOGO $303 million DeNA (2010) • OpenFeint $103 million GREE (2011) • Funzio $210 million GREE (2012) • Pokelabo $170 million GREE (2012) • OMGPOP $180 million Zynga (2012) • GungHo $265 million* Sojbank (2013)
= $1.2B
Source: SerkanToto.com
Other guys
• Temple Run • Gameloj • Cut the Rope • Talking Tom Cat
• Many, many, many others
Billion-‐dollar mobile genres?
• So far all casual & mid-‐core
• Console / PC $1B categories? – Almost untouched on mobile & tablets – Shooters, Racing, Sports, Music & Dance
2011 2012 2013
Casual Mid-‐Core Core
Metrics!
“At least it’s not meat”
Old Metrics
• Registered users • MAU • DAU • ARPU • ARPPU
New Metrics
• Quality DAU (QDAU) • 1, 2, 7, 30 days Reten`on • Conversion to paying • LTV • Number of Game Sessions • ROI vs UA
Problems
• App discovery – Apple killing discovery apps – Rankings
Problems
• App discovery – Apple killing discovery apps – Rankings
• CPI – How far in the future are you front-‐running revenue?
But don’t forget!
• Onboarding flow • Sense of progress • Connec`on • FUN
Communication or Entertainment?!
“I wish I hadn’t used SnapChat”
Messaging Apps =
New Discovery Channel?
Thanks! 谢谢大家!