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The Mekong
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The “ rice bowl ” of South East Asia!
Home to more than 20 M people!
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Climate Change in the Mekong
• Salt intrusion, key to land use in VMD.
Subject to significant Salt Intrusion
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The Mekong Deltaic System
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2016
Climate Change in the Mekong
2015 for 2050
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Kratie
My Thuan
Fresh water
inflow?
Tidal Signal
Within the
delta?
Ocean Forces?
Binh Dai
Hung My
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• Salt intrusion
• Higher WL & city flooding
• Bank erosion
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𝑻𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒍 𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒍 𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒆𝒅
= 𝒈 × 𝒅𝒆𝒑𝒕𝒉
On average:~2-3m deeper channels
Eslami et al. (2019)
Recently validated by
Vasilopoulos et al. (2020)
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Examples of bed level changes
Eslami et al. (2019)
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Climate Change in the Mekong
Environmental
5-10%
• Salt intrusion
• Higher tides
• City flooding
• Bank erosion
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Integrated approach
Coastal - Inland
Upstream - Downstream
Surface water - Groundwater
Climate Change - Anthropogenic
Subsidence
Erosion
Upstream Discharge
Downstream SLR
DFlow-FM
numerical domain
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3D Groundwater and Geological Modelling
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Source: Minderhoud et. al (2017)
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3D Surface water modelling
Eslami et. al (in prep. 2020)
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Environmental pathways
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Extent of salt intrusion in the delta
Eslami et al. (2021a & b)
“Projections of salt intrusion in a mega-delta under climatic and
anthropogenic stressors “, Nature Communications Earth & Env.