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The Impact of Liquid Biofuels
Otto Doering, Purdue University
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Background:
Viewing the larger scope- liquid fuels concerns•1970 versus 2005•Supply Driven•Demand Driven
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Supply Driven:
•Ethanol (grain and cellulosic)•Liquids from Coal•Hydrogen•Middle East & USSR•Price
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Demand Driven:
•Price•Rationing•Regulation
New Technology/Conservation•Transportation Infrastructure
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Viewing ethanol in it’s limited context
Ethanol higher corn prices higher ethanol costs more subsidy
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Ehanol value/price margin –additive or other
Gasoline Ethanol Gas/Ethanol
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
Date Oct RBOB Oct RBOB Equivalent + $0.51 Differential
5/1/07 $1.96 $1.95 $1.82 +0.137/5/07 $2.07 $1.87 $1.89 -0.029/21/07 $2.11 $1.57 $1.92 -0.34
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Key areas of environmental impact:
Water Quality:•Production Plants•Crops – grain or cellulosic!•Land use – land quality & intensity•Carbon Ratio•Energy Ratio
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Policy Considerations
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Trajectory of Current Ethanol Policy
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
•Crop Prices & Cropping Impacts•Subsidy/Renewable Fuel Standards Costs
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Role of Transition Policy
•Improved Energy output per water/energy input•Long term sustainability life cycle based•Reduced loadings of nutrients, pesticides & sediments•Lower net Carbon emissions
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
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Where Might We Go?
Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue University
•Link to demand and consider cost effectiveness•Consider Biofuels in the context of liquid fuels overall•Consider a Transition Policy with performance standards
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