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The Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Particulate Matter Air Pollution on
Premature Human Mortality
Presentation to CMASOctober 7, 2008
Susan Casper, J. Jason WestUNC - Chapel Hill
Larry HorowitzNOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ
Daniel TongScience and Technology Corporation, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC
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Previous Study
800,000 annual mortalities due to urban PM
Cohen, et al. (2004) Urban Air Pollution, In Comparative quantification of health risks. Geneva, WHO.
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Objectives
• Estimate global burden of human mortality due to anthropogenic ozone and PM
• Use model approach to improve on previous methods– Rural areas– Isolation of anthropogenic pollution
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Approach – Health Impact Functions
Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop
Baseline mortality rate
Exposed population
Concentration-response factor Change in
exposure concentration
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Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop
Concentration-Response Factors (CRF)
Source: Bell et al., 2004Source: Pope et al., 2002
Concentration (x)
ln R
R
ln RR
ΔX
For ozone, stronger effects captured by daily time-series studies:
For PM, stronger effects captured by cohort studies:
xt
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Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop
Δ annual average daily 8-hr max. O3 (2000-preindustrial)
Δ annual average PM (2000-preindustrial)
Concentrations
MOZART-2 surface data from Horowitz (2006)
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Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop
All-cause
Lung Cancer
Cardiopulmonary
Baseline Mortality Rates
WHO, 2004
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Annual Ozone Mortalities
Best estimate: 282,000 to 362,000 cardiopulmonary mortalities with uncertainty ranging from 135,000 – 551,000.
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Annual Ozone Mortalities
Non-accidental
Cardiopulmonary
Mortalities per 1000 km2 Mortalities per 1E6 people
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Ozone mortality estimates are sensitive to HIF parameters
Meta-analyses: Bell et al. 2005; Ito et al. 2005; Levy et al. 2005
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Annual PM Mortalities
Best estimate: 1.3 to 2.4 million cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortalities with uncertainty ranging from 465,000 –3.8 million.
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Annual PM Mortalities
All-cause
Cardiopulmonary
Lung Cancer
Mortalities per 1000 km2 Mortalities per 1E6 people
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PM mortality estimates are sensitive to HIF parameters
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Comparison to Previous Study• Recall… Cohen et al. (2004) found 800,000
mortalities due to urban PM
891,000 (299,000-1.4 million)
Including rural population and capturing urban peaks would suggest even larger numbers of mortalities
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SummaryOzone PM
Cardiopulmonary Mortalities 282,000 to 362,000 (135,000-551,000)
1.2 - 2.2 million (429,000-3.5 million)
Lung Cancer Mortalities n/a111,000 - 192,000 (36,000-282,000)
Best Estimate 282,000 to 362,000 (135,000-551,000)
1.3 - 2.4 million(465,000-3.8 million)
% of All Global Mortalities 0.5 - 0.6(0.2 – 0.9)
2.2 - 4.0(0.7 – 6.3)
• Results highly dependent on assumptions– CRF– Threshold
• High density of mortalities in densely populated areas, but some in less populated areas