The Future of Biodiversity
International Diversity DayPalacio dos Bandeirantes
Sao Paulo, BrazilMay 22, 2010
Thomas E. Lovejoy
Biodiversity Chair, The Heinz Center
Professor, George Mason University
Washington, D.C.
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE,
ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Exploring Life on Earth
Modelling the numbers of species described per
year, per taxonomist, predicts that 18% more
Rubiaceae remain unknown — a number similar to the average (15%) for other plant families.
From Joppa, Robers & Pimm (under review)
20% of all known plants are threatened with extinction and the remaining 15% will amost surely be
so, bringing the true percentage to ~30%
Psychotria
observed
predicted
Knowledge Services
The information behind
GBO-3:
• 110 National Reports
• Biodiversity Indicators
Partnership
• Biodiversity Futures Study
• 500 scientific papers
• Open review process
GBO-3 is an output of the processes
under the Convention.
Parties to the Convention, other
Governments, and observer
organizations have shaped the Outlook
GBO-3 has been prepared by the
Secretariat of the Convention on
Biological Diversity, in close collaboration
UNEP-WCMC and Diversitas.
The production of GBO-3 was enabled by
financial contributions from Canada, the
European Union, Germany, Japan, Spain
and the United Kingdom, as well as
UNEP.
Structure
• Biodiversity in 2010
• Biodiversity Futures for the 21st
Century
• Towards a Strategy for Reducing
Biodiversity Loss
“to achieve by 2010 a significant
reduction of the current rate of
biodiversity loss at the global, regional
and national level as a contribution to
poverty alleviation and to the benefit of
all life on Earth”
2010 Biodiversity Target
• No sub-target completely achieved
• Most indicators negative
• No government claims success
• Direct pressures constant or increasing
The 2010 Biodiversity Target has not been met
Source: WWF/ZSL
• The global Living Planet Index
(LPI), has declined by more than
30% since 1970,
• The Tropical LPI has declined by
almost 60%.
• The Temperate LPI showed an
increase of 15%, reflecting the
recovery of some species
populations in temperate regions
Source: WWF/ZSL
• The Red List Index (RLI) for all these species groups is decreasing.
• Coral species are moving most rapidly towards greater extinction risk
• Amphibians are, on average, the group most threatened.
Source: IUCN
Mammals
Mammals, birds & amphibians
Birds
Plants
Plants
Plants & animals
0,1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Background extinction rate
Red list Jetz van Vuuren Malcom Thomas
E/MSY
Species extinction
Recent pastDistant past 2050
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GBO3 – Terrestrial Scenarios
Projected Terrestrial Species Extinctions
Land use
& Climate
Change
Land use
& Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Plants &
vertebrates
Sp
ecie
s E
xti
ncti
on
Rate
sO
bs
erv
ed
fo
r p
as
t o
r “c
om
mit
ted
” f
or
futu
re
Livestock breeds at risk
Source: FAO
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GBO3 – Marine Scenarios
“Fishing down the food web”
High Marine trophic index Low
Trends in habitats are varied but show declines over all:
•Wetlands, salt marshes,
coral reefs, seagrass beds
and sea ice continue to
decline
•Extensive fragmentation of
forests and rivers
• Mangrove decline slowing
(except in Asia)
•The condition of many
terrestrial habitats is
deteriorating (degrading)
Source: NSIDC
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GBO3 – Marine Scenarios
Scenarios for Marine Fisheries
Profit & subsidies = “Business as usual”
Reduced trawling
“Ecosystem rebuilding”
Ma
rin
e t
rop
hic
in
dex –
Pacif
ic o
cean
Dr. Svante August Arrhenius
1859-1927
Source: Wallace Broecker
Analysis of a Greenland
ice core oxygen isotope proxy
Earlier flowering date
Source: Camille Parmesan
Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier
• Across the USA, tree
swallows are nesting 9
days earlier than 40
years ago
• Laying date is highly
correlated with May
temperature
Shifts in the
distribution of
species and biomes
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Edith’s Checkerspot
• Range shift northward and upward during the 20th century
• Most extinctions in south and low
elevations
• In Europe, mean average temperature has
increased by 0.8°C during the 20th
century.
• 63% of the 35 studied butterfly species
displayed a shift in their distribution area
toward the North of 35 to 200 km.
Parmesan et al. 1999, 2006
Argynnis paphia
Dark Orange = historical distribution
Light Orange = current distribution
Source : BBC World News
Biodiversity changes: possible effects of climate change
© WWF-Canon / Michèle Dépraz
Increasing number of dry days
Source: J.A. Pounds et al 2005
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The Arctic
Biome Shift
• Large biome shifts
are ”very likely” to
occur
• Aggressive climate
mitigation
substantially reduces
species and biome
range shifts
Figure: LPJ global
vegetation model
projections for 2100 from
IPCC (2007)
Low global
warming
High global warming
Green = shrub or tree
cover gain
Sugar Maple range projections
by 5 GCMs with 2 x CO2
Source: A.M. Prasad and Iverson, L.R: www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/index.html
Temperature Increase
876543210N
umb
er o
f Pre
dict
ed E
xtin
ctio
ns
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
S-curve fit: adj. r2 = 0.997 p = 0.001
18356465N =
Temperature Scenario
+7.0+5.0+3.5+1.0Current
Cor
e H
abi
tat R
ema
inin
g (%
)110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
Spatial Pattern of
Species RichnessDark red = high species richness
Species Extinctions
Mean Range Size
Williams et al. 2003. Proc Roy Soc Lond. B: 270:1887-1892
Slide courtesy of Stephen Williams
Ecosystems disassemble and species
reassemble into new ecosystems
Source: G.M. Hewitt and Nichols, R.A. 2005
Protected areas increasing …
Source: UNEP-WCMC
Source: UNEP-WCMC
…but large areas still under-represented
Source: UNEP-WCMC
Amazon loss slowing in Brazil
Source: INPE
State Pressure Response
Source:
Butchart
etal 2010
Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress towards the 2010
biodiversity target:
• Projections show continuing and accelerating extinctions, habitat loss,
changes in distribution and abundance of biodiversity
• High risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and degradation of services from
tipping points
•Loss preventable and even reversible with strong, urgent action
Key Findings:
What is a tipping point?
Self-perpetuating
Threshold
Long lasting/hard to reverse
Time lag
Courtesy of NOAA/NCAR
Tipping Point – Amazon dieback
•Widespread shift from forest to savanna
resulting from the Interaction of
deforestation, climate change and fires
•Becomes more likely at 20%-30%
deforestation
•Self-perpetuating
•Regional rainfall and global climate impacts,
massive biodiversity loss
Current Path Alternative Path
•Keep deforestation below 20%-30% of
original forest area
•Minimize use of fire for clearing
•Keep global climate warming below 2-3
degrees
Tipping Points – Freshwater eutrophication
•Reduce nutrient inputs from sewage,
detergents and agriculture
•Reforestation of watersheds
•Restoration of wetlands
•Economic incentives to close nutrient
cycle on farms
•The buildup of nutrients from fertilizers
and sewage shifts freshwater bodies
into a eutrophic state causing:
•Low oxygen levels and widespread
kills of plants, fish, invertebrates
•Loss of nutrition from fisheries, toxic
blooms make water unfit for drinking or
recreation
Current Path Alternative Path
Tipping Points – Coral reef collapse
Current Path Alternative Path
•Bleaching severe with temperature rise
greater than ca. 2oC
•Ocean acidification prevents corals
forming skeletons
•Reefs become degraded and algae-
dominated
•Livelihood threat to hundreds of millions
through loss of fisheries and tourism
Reduce local stressors including:
•Destructive fishing practices
•Coastal pollution
•Over-exploitation of herbivores such as
sea urchins and fish
•Strict climate mitigation to keep CO2
levels below 450 ppm and 2oC.
Global Biodiversity Outlook 3A map of key biodiversity tipping points
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Global Warming and Coral Reefs
Climate warming is already having widespread negative impacts on coral
reefs
Before bleaching
After bleaching
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Global Warming and Coral ReefsClimate warming is already having widespread negative impacts on coral
reefs
IPCC WGII 2007
Maximum monthly mean sea surface temperature for 1998, 2002 and 2005, and locations of reported coral bleaching (data sources: NOAA
Coral Reef Watch (http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/) and Reefbase (http://www.reefbase.org/)).
•At today’s level of 387ppm CO2, reefs are seriously
declining and time-lagged effects will result in their
continued demise with parallel impacts on other
marine and coastal ecosystems.
•Proposals to limit CO2 levels to 450ppm will not
prevent the catastrophic loss of coral reefs from the
combined effects of climate change and ocean
acidification.
•To ensure the long-term viability of coral reefs
atmospheric carbon dioxide level must be reduced
significantly below 350ppm.
Royal Society Meeting,
July 6th 2009
Deteriorating chemical condition for coral reefs
0 1 2 3 4
ΩaragoniteOptimal for
coral reefsCorrosive to
coral reefs
5
In the pre-industrial ocean, 99.8% of coral reefs were
near water with Ωaragonite > 3.25
Under a 550 ppm atmosphere, < 2% of coral reefs will be
near water with Ωaragonite > 3.25
(1) Arctic sea-ice
(2) Greenland ice-sheet stability
(3) Antarctic ice-sheet stability
(4) Major ecosystem disruption
Why is a CO2 target of 450ppm too high ?
What is a “safe” level?
James Hansen,
et al., 2008
350 ppm
Broadening action on
biodiversity
There is a greater
range of options than
previously recognized
Source: Leadley and Pereira etal 2010
Business as usual
Carbon tax including land
use
Carbon tax on fossil
fuels and industry only
Scenarios for land use
Source: Wise etal
2009
Address climate change and biodiversity loss in close co-ordination, and with equal priority, if the
most severe impacts of each are to be avoided.
•Greater efficiency in use of land, energy and fresh water to meet growing
demand
•Use of market incentives and avoidance of perverse subsidies
•Strategic planning
•Restoration of ecosystems
•Equitable sharing of benefits from use of and access to genetic resources and
associated traditional knowledge
•Support and facilitate local action
•Communication, education and awareness-raising
Key strategy elements:
Increase natural connectivity to facilitate
species movement
Adaptation: Revise conservation strategies
Minimize climate change impacts by
reducing other stresses, e.g., siltation
on coral reefs
Protected Areas and future biogeography
climate change shifts location
of suitable habitat
marine reserves support
population growth in neighboring
areas
Source: Hannah et al. 2002; PISCO 2002
Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
20% of Annual Emissions come from deforestation
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)
1.5 Pg C y-1
+7.5 Pg C y-1
Atmosphere
46%
4.2 Pg y-1
Land
29%
2.6 Pg y-1
Oceans
26%
2.3 Pg y-1
Long atmospheric residence times
for greenhouse gases
Origin of land
plantsExpansion of
angiosperms
Present-day CO2
The Role of Life Processes
Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost 200-250 billion
tons of carbon
Planetary Engineering Using Ecosystems
CO2 PPM
Time
280
The Role of Forests
Photo courtesy USDA NRCS
Restoring Grazing Land
Photos: United States Department of Agriculture—Natural Resources Conservation Service.
Modify Agriculture to Build up Soil Carbon
68
TEEB – Final Reports – Nagoya, Oct 2010
D0
D3
D4
D1
D2
Citizen & Consumer
Ownership
Business Risks
& Opportunities
Decision Support
for Administrators
Policy Evaluation
for Policy-Makers
Science & Economics
Foundations, Policy
Costs, & Costs of Inaction
TEEB: The Economics of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
TEEB D0, Chapter 5
“Economic valuation of ecosystem services and biodiversity can make explicit to
society in general and policy making in particular, that biodiversity and ecosystem
services are scarce and that their depreciation or degradation has associated
costs to society.
If these costs are not imputed, then policy would be misguided and society would
be worse off due to misallocation of resources.”
Shrimp Farm
private
profits less
subsidies
Net of public
costs of
restoration
needed
after 5 years
private
profits
Mangroves
0
10000
US$
/ha/yr
private profits
5000
If public wealth is included, the “trade-off” choice
changes completely…..
$584ha
$1220ha
$9632ha
$584ha
-ve $11,172ha
$12,392ha
Source: Barbier et al, 2007
After
Adding
Public
Benefits
From
mangroves
Based only on private gain, the
“trade-off” choice favours
conversion…..
Exceptional Returns from Ecosystem Restoration…
The action taken over the next
decade or two will determine
whether the relatively stable
environmental conditions on which
human civilization has depended for
the past 10,000 years will continue
beyond this century.
If we fail to use this opportunity,
many ecosystems on the planet will
move into new, unprecedented
states in which the capacity to
provide for the needs of present and
future generations is highly
uncertain.
Re-Greening the Emerald Planet
For further information
on Global Biodiversity
Outlook 3 and related
prodcuts please see:
www.cbd.int/GBO3