The french population at 1st january 2004Aguascalientes 4 – 6 july 2005
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Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005
Yearly estimate method before 2004
At the national level At a local level (regions and departments)
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At national level
To add to the 1st january population The natural increase An estimate of the net migration
P1 = P0 + Births – Deaths + Net Migration
P0 : population at 1st january of the previous year
P1 : population at 1st january
We start from a population at 1st january 1999, based on the 1999 Census
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To estimate the annual net migration
Four main streams– Arrivals and departures of foreign people– Arrivals and departures of french people
Annual informations only for foreign born migrants (OMI, OFPRA, Home Office)
For other streams, an estimate based on trends, thanks to a simple model
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At a local level (regions and departments)
A method using administrative data bases (local tax, family benefits, electricity, elections). It yields population estimates by department and regions The total is the national estimate These estimates are produced by sex and age They are disseminated with a 18 months delay : spring
n+1 for populations at the 1st january n
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Comparison census - estimate after each census
Comparison of 2 figures :– estimate au 1st january of the census year– Census population, counted at the 1st january
Before 1999, the census population was always kept as the population
If the census population is different from the population estimate, we can think that the net migration estimate is wrong. But the gap between the 2 figures can also come from comparability problems between the 2 censuses.
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Retropolation
When the census results are known, populations for the years between the censuses are updated :
– Populations by sex, age and marital status at the 1st january of each year, at national and local levels
– With these new data, demographic ratios (TFR, life expectancy) are updated fot the intercensal period.
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Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005
Analyse after the 1999 census (1)
The census population (counted at the 1st january) was under the estimate based on the previous census by 480000 inhabitants.
The net migration estimate was not changed.
The gap was a attributed to a comparability problem between censuses.
To keep an equality, an adjustment was introduced.
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Analyse after the 1999 census (2)
In thousands
Relative variation
(en %)Population at 1st january 1990, based on the 1990 Census 56 577
Population at 1st january 1999, based on the 1999 Census 58 497
Apparent variation 1 920 3,4Natural increase 1 867Net migration 533True variation 2 400Adjustment -480
Apparent variation 213 0,37Natural increase 207 0,36Net migration 59 0,10True variation 267 0,46Adjustment -53
Evolution of population 1990-1999 (metropolitan France)
By year
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National population estimate at the 1st january 2004 (before 2004 census results)
Before taking in account the 2004 collection for the rolling census
Each year from 2000, Insee published a population estimate at the 1st january, based on the 1999 census.
For 2004, this estimate was published in february 2004, in the « bilan démographique 2003 ».
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National population estimate at the 1st january 2004 (before 2004 census results)
YearPopulation at
the 1st january
Total variation annuelle
Natural increase
Net migration
Totaldue to natural
increase
due to net migration
1999 58 497 252 207 45 4,3 3,5 0,8
2000 58 749 294 244 50 4,9 4,1 0,8
2001 59 043 299 239 60 5,0 4,0 1,0
2002 59 342 292 227 65 4,9 3,8 1,1
2003 59 635 266 211 55 4,4 3,5 0,9
2004 59 900
Évolution of the population according to "Bilan démographique 2003" (metropolitan France)
in thousands annual rate of variation (per 1000)
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In the beginning of 2005, 2004 census results
"Bilan démogra-
phique 2003"2004 census
Population at the 1st january 2004 59 900 60 371Population at the 1st january 1999 58 497 58 497
Variation 1 403 1 874Gap census - estimate 471
Population at the 1st january 2004
At the national, once more a gap of about 500000, but with the census figure above the estimate
thousands
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Incertainties of the estimate based on the 1999 census
Natural increase : good
Net migration : under-estimation– Omission of a part of foreign migrants since 1998,
because of changes of classification in the administrative annual data.
– temporary data for 2003
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How to know net migration for foreign born (« immigrés ») with census data
From the 1999 census, to estimate surviving foreign born living in France without migration
To estimate a net migration by difference
To compare with new immigrants (arrived since 1999)
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How to know net migration for foreign born (« immigrés ») with census data
thousands
under-estimation in Census
(%)
under-estimation on year of
first coming (%)
after correction
(thousands)
1999 Census a 4 143 4 4 309
Deaths (simulated) b 223 4 232
expected in 2004, without migrations
c = a - b 3 920 4 4 077
2004 Census d 4 510 2 4 600
Apparent net migration 1999-2004
e = d - c 590 523
Foreign born arrived since the 1.1.1999 (1)(2)
f 599 (2) 2 18 720
(1) This does not include departures before 2004 for these people(2) This figure uses results from the question on the date of coming in
Foreign born of more than 18 year in 2004 (born in 1985 or before)
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Incertainties on the census population of 2004
Sampling error
Change in counting students
Censoring institutionnal households
Homeless people
Problems of quality of the address file, in the bigger municipalities
Checking the double counts
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Decision
In thousands
Relative variation
(en %)
Population at 1st january 1999 58 497
Population at 1st january 2004 60 200Apparent variation 1 703 2,9Natural increase 1 130Net migration 410True variation 1 540Adjustment 164
Apparent variation 341 0,58Natural increase 226 0,38Net migration 82 0,14True variation 308 0,52Adjustment 33
By year
Evolution of population 1999-2004 (metropolitan France)
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How many are we ?
in thousands
Population at the 1st january
Births DeathsNatural
increaseNet
migrationAdjust-ment
Variation
1999 58 497 745 538 207 60 33 300
2000 58 796 775 531 244 70 33 347
2001 59 143 771 531 240 85 33 358
2002 59 501 762 534 227 95 33 355
2003 59 856 761 550 211 100 33 344
2004 60 200 765 509 256 105 361
2005 60 561
Evolution of population 1999-2004, year by yearmetropolitan France
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Revisiting the demographic evolution
Evolution (annual)
1999-2004
In february 2004IP n° 948
In january 2005IP n° 1000
Natural increase
248 200 248 800
Net migration 55 000 84 000
Adjustment 0 32 800
Total 303 200 365 600
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Including the overseas departments
France had 62,0 millions of inhabitants at 1st january 2004
60,2 millions in continental departments
1,8 million in overseas departments
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At the regional level
Comparison between :
– regional estimates at the 1st january 2004, obtained from 2003 estimates, by using administrative records
– 2004 census results
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Decision
Thousands
1999 2004
Ile-de-France 10 946 11 149 11 330 11 264 66
Champagne-Ardenne 1 343 1 334 1 321 1 330 -9
Nord-Pas-de-Calais 3 997 4 018 4 009 4 026 -17
Pays de la Loire 3 220 3 333 3 344 3 344 0
Aquitaine 2 907 3 012 3 084 3 049 34
Languedoc-Roussillon 2 292 2 432 2 480 2 458 22
Prov.-Alpes-Côte d'azur 4 502 4 710 4 654 4 666 -13
Metropolitan France 58 497 59 900 60 371 60 200 171
Difference
Population in some regions
Population at the 1st january (based on
1999 Census)
Estimation at the 1st january
2004
Région2004
Census Population
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Regions populations
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Later
In the beginning of 2006, a new comparison will be done between :
2005 estimate, published in february 2005 in « Bilan démographique 2004 »
2005 census population.
If the census population is once more higher than estimated, it could be decided to set a new estimate for 2005, more close to the census population, and we shall have a new adjustment.