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The crash and offence involvement of speeding offenders
Barry WatsonPresentation to “Under the Radar” Traffic Offenders Conference7 December 2011
CRICOS No. 00213J
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AcknowledgementsARC Linkage project partners:
– Queensland Department of Transport & Main Roads
– Queensland Police Service
– Office of Economic & Statistical Research
CARRS-Q research team:– Adjunct Professor Vic Siskind
– Dr Judy Fleiter
– Angela Watson
– David Soole
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Overview The role of speeding in crashes and
contributing factors to the behaviour The need to better understand speeding
offenders Characteristics of low-range, mid-range and
high-range offenders Links to other offending behaviour Implications for speed management policies
and practices
CRICOS No. 00213J
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The speeding problem in Australia As in other countries, speeding is a major factor
contributing to road crashes in Australia Speeding is estimated to contribute to
approximately 25% of all fatalities Australia-wide Research indicates that speeding increases both
the incidence and severity of crashes Speeding is over-represented in:
− more severe crashes− crashes involving high-risk groups such as young
drivers, motorcycle riders, unlicensed drivers
CRICOS No. 00213J
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Speed management in Australia Over the last 20 years, Australian jurisdictions
have adopted a ‘holistic’ approach to reducing speeding involving:– Road environment improvements (e.g. lower urban
speed limits, road treatments)
– Enforcement programs (e.g. traffic patrols, fixed & mobile speed cameras, point-to-point cameras)
– Education programs (e.g. mass media education)
– Intelligent Transport System (ITS) measures (e.g. vehicle activated and variable message signs)
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Speeding offenders Historically, speeding drivers have been
considered a homogenous group In comparison to drink driving, there has
been little research focus on:– identifying the characteristics of high-range or
recidivist speeding offenders– better understanding the motivations of these
drivers– tailoring countermeasures to address this
group
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Recidivist drink drivers (1)
International concern about recidivist drink drivers Strong relationship between repeat offending and
high-range BACs Not a homogenous group, but are more likely that
general drivers to:– consume greater amounts of alcohol, experience
alcohol-related problems and be alcohol-dependent– exhibit antisocial and deviant tendencies, aggression,
hostility, thrill-seeking– to have poor driving histories, to use drugs and a have
criminal history
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Recidivist drink drivers (2)
These findings are consistent with the road safety maxim that: “people drive as they live”
Recidivist drink drivers appear resistant to traditional drink driving countermeasures
This has prompted the development of tailored countermeasures and sanctions such as:- Heavy fines and lengthy suspension periods- Rehabilitation programs- Alcohol ignition interlocks- Vehicle immobilisation, impoundment or forfeiture
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Aim of the study
To inform the design and implementation of speeding countermeasures by: – examining the demographic characteristics and
traffic histories of speeding offenders– comparing the crash and offence histories of
low and mid-range offenders with high-range speeding offenders
– exploring potential predictors of high-range speeding offenders
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Method (1)
The data was drawn from a larger study designed to evaluate the impact of speeding penalty changes
Traffic offence data from 1996 to 2007 was obtained for two cohorts of drivers: those convicted of speeding in May 2001 and May 2003
Data obtained included details of:– index offence– previous and subsequent traffic offences– demographic characteristics– licence type and class
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Method (2)
Cases that were excluded from the analyses included:– Offenders not holding a Queensland licence, since
demographic and offence history data was missing
– Offenders with missing licence information (3.7%)
– Speed camera offences not attributed to individuals, but companies
There were no statistical differences between the two cohorts of offenders on key variables, so they were combined
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Method (3)
Three classifications of offenders were determined ‘a priori’– Low-range: one offence less than 15km/hr over speed
limit during study timeframe– Mid-range: at least one offence more than 15km/hr over
the speed limit– High-range: 2 or more offences, with at least two being
30 km/hr or more over the speed limit
Due to the large sample size a more stringent alpha rate of .001 was selected and effect sizes examined
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Low-range5.8%
Mid-range90.5%
High-range3.7%
Figure 1: Breakdown of offenders(n = 84,468)
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Low-range Mid-range High-range
50.5%
65.1%
90.2%
49.5%
34.9%
9.8%
Male
Female
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 1333.7, p < .001, c= .41Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 840.4, p < .001, c= .10
Figure 2: Gender of offenders
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Low-range Mid-range High-range
9.4%17.2%
40.5% 17 - 2425 - 2930 - 3940 - 4950 - 5960+
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (6) = 2166.9, p < .001, c= .35Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (6) = 1721.1, p < .001, c= .10
Figure 3: Age of offenders
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Low-range Mid-range High-range
3.4% 4.1% 6.1%4.9% 9.4%
29.1%
91.7%86.5%
64.8%
Learner
Provisional
Open
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (2) = 980.2, p < .001, c= .35Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (2) = 1334.2, p < .001, c= .13
Figure 4: Offenders’ licence status
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Low-range Mid-range High-range
70.4%64.8%
54.6%
18.5% 24.1%
38.5% Car only
Motorcycle
HV only
Car + HV
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (3) = 430.7, p < .001, c= .23Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (3) = 364.2, p < .001, c= .07
Figure 5: Offenders’ licence class
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Low-range Mid-range High-range
1.4% 4.3%11.4%
98.6% 95.7%88.6%
Yes No
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 376.9, p < .001, c= .22Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 346.3, p < .001, c= .07
Figure 6: Drink driving offence history
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Low-range Mid-range High-range
0.0% 1.4%8.3%
100.0% 98.6%91.7%
Yes No
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 417.8, p < .001, c= .23Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 876.3, p < .001, c= .11
Figure 7: Unlicensed driving offence history
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Low-range Mid-range High-range
0.0% 3.4%9.0%
100.0% 96.6%91.0%
Yes No
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 454.8, p < .001, c= .51Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 271.8, p < .001, c= .06
Figure 8: Seat belt offence history
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Low-range Mid-range High-range
0.0%
13.6%
36.5%
100.0%
86.4%
63.5%
Yes No
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 2082.9, p < .001, c= .51Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 1265.8, p < .001, c= .13
Figure 9: Other offence history
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Figure10: Crash history
Low range Mid range High range0
102030405060708090
100
3% 6.3%14%
97% 93.7%86%
CrashNo Crash
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 358.6, p < .001, c= .21Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 286.2, p < .001, c= .06
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Figure11: Vehicle type in crashes
Low range Mid range High range0
102030405060708090
100 90.5% 90.5% 91.7%
1.5% 4% 6%8% 5.5% 2.3%
CarMotorcycleHeavy vehicle
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 13.7, p < .001, c= .16Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 11.8, p = .003, c= .05
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Figure13: Most at fault in crashes
Low range Mid range High range0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
35.6%
47.3%
52.5%
64.4%
52.7%47.5%
Most at faultNot most at fault
Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 8.9, p = .003, c= .15Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 3.0, p = .081, c= .03
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Limitations Relied on data collected for administrative
purposes that can be incorrectly recorded or incomplete
The criteria for determining low, mid and high-range offending was somewhat arbitrary
Different classification of offenders may produce a different pattern of results
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Implications for road safety (1)
Repeat, high-range speeding offenders are more likely to be male, younger, provisional licence holders and motorcycle riders
There is an association between repeat, high-range speeding and an increased involvement in crashes and other offences
Repeat, high-range speeding offenders appear to be a particularly problematic group of drivers
Mid-range speeding offenders also have an elevated involvement in offences and crashes
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Implications for road safety (2)
Need to refine existing speed management strategies and consider tailored sanctions for repeat, high-range speeding offenders:− vehicle impoundment
− intelligent speed adaption (ISA)
− ongoing enhancement of rehabilitation programs The effectiveness of increased fines for repeat,
high-range offenders remains unclear Additional sanctions may also be warranted for
mid-range offenders
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Implications for road safety (3)
Further research is required into:– the impact of current speed enforcement
practices and sanctions on the behaviour of mid-range and high-range offenders
– strategies to enhance the detection of speeding offenders (eg. point-to-point speed enforcement)
– the psychological and social factors contributing to speeding recidivism to inform public education and offender management programs
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Mark your Diaries!
International Council on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety Conference (T2013)
25-28 August 2013, Brisbane