Transcript
Page 1: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy

Security

Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.)

Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere

National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationOctober 16, 2007

Calgary, Alberta

Accenture Energy Advisory Board

Accenture Energy Advisory Board

Page 2: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

The Challenge of Climate Change 2

MenuMenu

U.S. Climate Science, Technology, and Policy

State of the Science U.S. Climate

Initiatives “20 in 10” Plan Climate Change

Technology Program Energy Policy Act of

2005 Advanced Energy

Initiative 110th Congress

Post-Kyoto Framework: New International Directions

Major Economies Meeting

UNFCCC and the Montreal Protocol

Technology Transfer Adaptation Strategies

GEOSS

Page 3: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

The Challenge of Climate Change 3

State of the ScienceState of the Science

Bottom Line: there is general scientific agreement that anthropogenic activities are increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and driving climate change.

Areas of Uncertainty: Sensitivity of global systems to increased GHG

emissions Impacts of identified regional climate changes Timing of impacts and rate of changes Magnitude of changes and impacts at specific scales

Research: research is crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change and guiding public policy.

Climate Change Science Program—World’s largest climate science research Program. Funded at approximately $1.7 billion/year ($10.7 Billion 2002-2006).

Page 4: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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U.S. Climate InitiativesU.S. Climate Initiatives

20 in 10 Reduce U.S. gasoline consumption

by 20% in 10 years Promote alternative fuels Increase CAFE standards

Climate Change Technology Program Multi-agency research and

development program; funded at approximately $3 billion/year

Goals include: Reducing emissions from

energy use and supply Capturing and sequestering

CO2

Improving capability to measure & monitor GHG

Energy Policy Act of 2005 $10 billion in clean technology

tax incentives Requires use of 7.5 billion

gallons of renewable fuel (ethanol and biodiesel) to be used in gasoline by 2012

Provides 30% tax credit for installation of alternative fuel stations (up to $30,000/year).

Federal Energy Management Plan Federal Government is the

largest energy consumer in U.S. Plan promotes energy efficiency

and use of renewable energy resources at federal sites.

Page 5: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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U.S. Climate Initiatives:Advanced Energy Initiative

U.S. Climate Initiatives:Advanced Energy Initiative

Fueling Vehicles Develop advanced battery

technology for plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (40 mile range solely on battery charge)

Make cellulosic ethanol competitive with corn-based ethanol by 2012

Make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles widely available by 2020.

Powering Homes & Businesses Clean coal technology

FutureGen: public-private partnership to develop technologies for coal-fired power plants that capture and store CO2, rather than release it into the atmosphere

Develop a Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, and improve the domestic regulatory process

Reduce the cost of solar and other renewable energy sources.

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

Hydrokinetic Offshore windHydrokinetic

GeneratorKinetic Energy Systems

Offshore Wind FarmNantucket

Two pronged approach: (1) change the way vehicles are fueled; and (2) change the way homes and businesses are powered.

Page 6: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

The Challenge of Climate Change 6

Climate Bills in the 110th Congress

Climate Bills in the 110th Congress

Page 7: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

The Challenge of Climate Change 7

Stabilization TriangleStabilization Triangle

Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative, The Stabilization Triangle: Tackling the Carbon and Climate Problem With Today’s Technologies. Available at http://www.summits.ncat.org/docs/Wedges_Concept_Game_Materials_2005.pdf

Page 8: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Today’s Technology

Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation

Coal-Fired Power Plants

Build 1,000 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants (in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO2 capture and storage)

Geologic Sequestration

Install 3,700 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project (0.27 MtC/year)

NuclearBuild 500 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)

EfficiencyDeploy 1 billion new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg

Wind EnergyInstall capacity to produce 50 times the current global wind generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)

Solar PhotovoltaicsInstall capacity to produce 1,000 times the current global solar PV generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)

Biomass fuels from plantations

Convert a barren area about 15 times the size of Iowa’s farmland (about 30 million acres) to biomass crop production

CO2 Storage in New Forest

Convert a barren area about 30 times the size of Iowa’s farmland to new forest

*Giga-Tonnes = 109 Metric-Tonnes (1000 Kilograms) **See CCTP Strategic Plan p. 38.

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How Big is a Gigaton*?Using Today’s Technology, These Actions Can Cut

Emissions by 1 GtC/Year**

How Big is a Gigaton*?Using Today’s Technology, These Actions Can Cut

Emissions by 1 GtC/Year**

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Page 9: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

The Post-Kyoto Framework:New International

Directions

Page 10: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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The Future of International Climate Policy

The Future of International Climate Policy

President Bush’s Vision has 3 Components: Create post-2012 framework among major economies by

the end of 2008 Strengthen U.N. climate initiatives Advance global adoption of clean energy technologies

The new direction in climate policy must enhance energy security and promote economic development.

Page 11: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Post-Kyoto Framework:Major Economies Meeting

Post-Kyoto Framework:Major Economies Meeting

17 major economies represented, including the U.N.

Launched process to identify long-term global GHG emissions reduction goals (e.g., 2050).

Discussed commitments to national mid-term goals with binding elements (e.g., 2020, 2030), according to national circumstances.

Each country to establish its own targets, goals, and programs that are binding domestically.

Discussed need to harmonize emission measurement and accounting systems.

Participants focused on five key areas: low carbon fossil power generation, transportation, land use, market penetration and energy efficiency, and finance.

Page 12: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

The Challenge of Climate Change 12

Post-Kyoto Framework:Major Economies Meeting

Post-Kyoto Framework:Major Economies Meeting

Key Points for a long-term GHG reduction goal: Guided by Article 2 of the UNFCCC; Science-based; Underpinned by environmentally effective and measurable near-

and mid-term actions; Take into account countries’ differing circumstances and common

but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities; Understand the future availability of key low carbon technologies,

and the feasibility of delivering technologies at different scales and time periods;

Take into account the costs of adaptation in the context of broader development strategies.

Take into account historical cumulative emissions, per capita emissions, and development needs of developing countries.

Next Steps The participants agreed that there is value in convening another

meeting of Major Economies after the U.N. climate meetings in Bali.

Page 13: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Post-Kyoto Framework:UNFCCC & The Montreal Protocol

Post-Kyoto Framework:UNFCCC & The Montreal Protocol

Conference of the Parties in Bali, December 2007

Report outcome of Major Economies Meeting

New MEM Framework will Reinforce Existing Work Programs in the U.N.

Land Use Sustainable forest and agricultural

management, stop deforestation and illegal logging

Adaptation Build on international development principles

Technology Sharing and Energy Efficiency Tools to open and accelerate markets for

technology

Montreal Protocol Parties recently agreed to accelerate

deadlines for phasing out HCFCs.

Page 14: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum: focused on CO2 capture & storage.

International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy: organizes, coordinates, and leverages hydrogen R&D programs.

Generation IV International Forum: devoted to R&D on next generation of nuclear systems.

ITER: project to develop fusion as a commercial energy source.

Methane to Markets: recovery and use of methane from landfills, mines, oil and gas systems, and agriculture.

Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development & Climate: accelerates deployment of technologies to address energy security, air pollution, and climate change.

Global Bioenergy Partnership: Italian G8 initiative to support wider, cost effective, biomass and biofuels deployment, particularly in developing countries.

Global Nuclear Energy Partnership: U.S. initiative to develop worldwide consensus on enabling expanded use of economical, carbon-free nuclear energy to meet growing electricity demand, using a nuclear fuel cycle that enhances energy security and promotes non-proliferation.

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Post-Kyoto Framework:International Partnerships

Post-Kyoto Framework:International Partnerships

Page 15: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Post-Kyoto Framework:Technology Transfer

Post-Kyoto Framework:Technology Transfer

Developing Nations Must be Part of the New Equation!

Develop Transformational Technology Increase global R&D funding and cooperation

Expand Low-Cost Finance Options Focus existing development resources and

private resources Consider new low-cost capital sources to

finance investment in transformational technologies (e.g., development banks, OPIC)

Transfer Technology Globally Eliminate tariffs and remove non-tariff barriers

to cleaner energy and environmental technologies and services

Launch global effort to share government-developed and owned technologies at low or no cost

Page 16: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Government Energy R&D in Selected Industrialized

Countries,1974-2004

Government Energy R&D in Selected Industrialized

Countries,1974-2004

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

mill

ion

s, $

US

200

4

Canada

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Italy

Japan

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

UK

US

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

Page 17: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Post-Kyoto Framework:Adaptation Strategies

Post-Kyoto Framework:Adaptation Strategies

CarbonTrackerEl Nino Forecast

“It may be too late to avoid dangerous climate change…reducing carbon dioxide emissions is part of the solution. Another part is adaptation, but we haven't addressed that.”

Claude Mandil, Former IEA Executive Director

The world’s climate will continue to change for the next 50 years, regardless of any mitigating efforts we make now.

The lag in the climate system makes adaptation essential, particularly in addressing near-term impacts.

Sound adaptation policies must rest on sound science. We need better data for better decision making.

Page 18: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

A distributed system of systems Improves coordination of observation

systems Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and

satellite networks Identifies gaps in our global capacity Facilitates exchange of data and

information Improves decision-makers’ abilities to

address pressing policy issues

GEONetCast Worldwide information distribution

Page 19: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

The Challenge of Climate Change 19

Why Earth Observations?Why Earth Observations?

Prediction Worldwide agricultural benefits of better El Niño forecasts are

conservatively estimated at $450-$550 million/year Annual costs of electricity could decrease by $1 billion if we

could improve the accuracy of weather forecasts by one degree Fahrenheit. (Source: USA Today)

Prevention More than 90% of natural disaster-related deaths occur in

developing countries.

Preparedness More than 50% of the world’s population lives within 60 km of

the shoreline; this could rise to 75% by the year 2020.

Page 20: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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The Path ForwardThe Path ForwardEconomic growth, sustainable development, energy security, and climate change can and must be pursued in an integrated manner. Therefore, we need:

A visionary long-term approach, based on innovation, growth, and international cooperation;

Leadership from developed nations and meaningful participation from developing nations;

A variety of near-term actions, augmented

by financial incentives; Increased investment in clean energy

technology; and A recognition that one size won’t fit all:

national/regional strategies are needed.

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Page 21: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

Questions?

Page 22: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

Additional Slides

Page 23: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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World CO2 Emissions:2003-2030

World CO2 Emissions:2003-2030

Source: Energy Information Administration, 2006 International Energy Outlook

Page 24: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Energy Market Share by Source

Energy Market Share by Source

38.8%

22.6% 22.4%

8.2% 6.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Nuclear ElectricEnergy

Renewable Energy

Source: Energy Information Administration, at http://www.eia.doe.gov\basics\energybasics101.html

Page 25: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Energy Consumption By Sector

Energy Consumption By Sector

28.3%

21.6%

10.6%

39.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Transportation Industrial Residential/Commercial Electric Power

Source: Energy Information Administration, at http://www.eia.doe.gov\basics\energybasics101.html

Page 26: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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U.S. Energy Trends Through 2030

U.S. Energy Trends Through 2030

Projected Population Increase: 23 %

Projected Energy Consumption Increase: 31%

Biofeuls and other nonhydroelectric renewables projected to grow rapidly

Sales of alternative vehicle technologies will account for nearly 28% of new light duty vehicle sales

However, oil, coal, and natural gas still projected to supply 86% of U.S. energy in 2030

Imports of energy will constitute 32% of total U.S. energy demand

Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007). These projections are from the “reference case,” which assumes that current energy policies impacting the sector remain unchanged throughout the analysis period. See http://www.eia.doe.gov/

Page 27: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Cost:Potential 100-Year Reductions

Cost:Potential 100-Year Reductions

Comparative Analysis of Estimated Cumulative Costs Over the 21st Century of GHG Mitigation, With and Without Advanced Technology, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints

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Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE), Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis ofAdvanced Technology Scenarios. Available at http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/data/publications/CCTP_Final_Report_041007.pdf

Page 28: The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

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Scale of Biomass Land AreaScale of Biomass Land AreaLand Use Scenario ~550 ppmv

From Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Unmanaged Ecosystems

Managed Forests

Crop Land

Pasture Land

BioEnergy


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