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The Arab Spring
IAFS 1000
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Outline
• Tunisian Trigger• Misconception re Status Quo Ante• Spread of Arab Spring• Role of Social Media• Implications for Syria• Conclusions
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Origins• 17 Dec 2010:
Mohammed Bouazizi, Tunisian fruit-seller, self-immolated to protest abuse
• Protests spread throughout Tunisia
• 14 Jan 2011: President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali forced into exile
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Tunisian Themes
• Focus on economic issues• Mass uprisings spontaneous• Young people central to protests• Uprising successful in driving Ben Ali
from office
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Misconceptions aboutPre-Rising Status Quo
• Autocrats’ tight control of military> varied widely from state to state
• Autocrats’ ability to use oil money to buy off disgruntled citizens
> yes, except in Libya• Weakness of Pan-Arabism
> leaderless revolts won broad Arab following
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Repercussions (as of July 2012)
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Spread of Unrest
• Egypt (Jan-Feb 2011): Mubarak handed power to military–Muhammad Morsi (Muslim Bros) to
power• Yemen (Feb 2011-ongoing): Saleh
handed power over to crony VP al-Hadi• Bahrain (Feb 2011-ongoing): protests put
down by Saudi forces
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Spread of Unrest
• Libya (Feb-Oct 2011): Gaddafi killed–Jul 2012: parliamentary elections
• Syria (Mar 2011-ongoing): military response from government–Jul 2011: emergence of Free Syrian
Army (FSA)~ Nov 2011: civil war
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Role of Social Media
• Calls to protest on Facebook• Social media a primary news source• Egyptian efforts to limit internet
backfired• Wael Ghonim (Google): “We Are All
Khalid Said”
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Social Media
Young Egyptians post videos of events in Tahrir Square, 7 Feb 2011)http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/12/25/sunday-review/25YIP_ARABSPRING-4.html
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Social Media
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-07/how-pentagon-program-and-hacker-assisted-revolution
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Social Media
Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT
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http://npgportraits.si.edu/
Appropriating Well Known Images
Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT
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SocialMedia
“We are all Khalid Said”
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Social Media
Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT
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Social Media
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/translated-egyptian-protest-signs
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Antigovernment protesters in Bahrain’s Pearl Square Feb. 20.
Social Media
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/12/25/sunday-review/25YIP_ARABSPRING-8.html
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“Occupy Yemen”
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“Occupy Bahrain”
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Social Media Challenges
• Anonymity– “Gay Girl in Damascus” hoax
• Social media dominated by US private companies–Result of clash of business or national
interests?
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Arab Spring’s Impact on Syria• Military conflict• Entire country
disintegrating• Assad’s Alawite
regime supported by China, Russia, and especially Iran
> hope to preserve “Shiite Crescent”?
new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2012/03/making-sense-of-arab-spring-7-syria-and.html
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Arab Spring’s Impact on Syria
• Assad opposed by US, Saudi Arabia• Possible proxy war?• Syria at heart of multiple conflicts:–Arab-Israel–Saudi-Iran–US-Russia–Hezbolah-Israel
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Conclusions
• Complicated events, varying results• Arab Spring not over yet, esp. in Syria• US relations with new Islamist
governments?• Haytham Bahoora: watch for ongoing
conflicts to be coopted by a range of interests for their own purposes