Marc HanewinkelFreiburg, GermanyMarc HanewinkelFreiburg, GermanyBaden-Württemberg Forest Research InstituteBaden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Natural risks and long term forest management
Marc Hanewinkel
Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Natural risks and long term forest management
1. Introduction2. Lessons learnt from „Lothar“3. „Lothar“ and the aftermath
• insect calamities• carbon sequestration• timber industry
4. What comes next ?
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Introduction
26.12.1999 ‘Lothar‘
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Introduction
Recent large storm disturbances in Europe
1990 – „Vivien/Wiebke“ >100 million m3
1999 – „Lothar/Martin“ >180 million m3
2005 – „Gudrun/Sweden“ > 75 million m3
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
• Vulnerability of different tree species
• Influence of tree height and height / diameter ratio (h/d)
• Influence of exposure (TOPEX)
• Influence of geographic position
• Goal: Regionalization – mapping of potential risk
• Database: National Forest Inventory in Germany (2002)
Lessons learnt – a risk model
Lessons learnt
4
B
DA
C
150 m
(M.Schmidt, J.Bayer, G.Kändler)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Lessons learnt
Comparing tree height and species
SpruceFirBeech
P (S
torm
dam
age)
Tree height (m)
Spruce Fir Beech
Spruce Fir Beech
Schmidt et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################
3450000 3455000 3460000 3465000 3470000-400
-200
0
R echtswert
-1*T
opex
-Inde
x
3 450000 3455000 3460000 3465000 3470000200
400
600
800
R echtswert
Seeh
öhe
ü. N
N [m
]Topex: topographic
exposure The Windthrow Research Group, University of British ColumbiaH
eigh
t a.s
.l
Easting
Easting
Schmidt et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Lessons learnt
• Influence of tree height and geographic position (large-scaleairflow - conditions)
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
S
U
MA
HD
KA
FR
RV0 10 20 30 40 50
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Baumhöhe [m]
P (S
turm
scha
den)
P (S
torm
dam
age)
Tree height
0
010 20
3040
5060
70
80
90
100
110
120130
140150
160170180
190200210
220230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300310
320330
340 350
N
S
OW
Schmidt et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Lessons learnt
Spatial autocorrelation
3400000 3450000 3500000 3550000 3600000
5300
000
5400
000
5500
000
Rechtswert
Hoc
hwer
t
SturmschadenswahrscheinlichkeitThin Plate Regression Spline
Stuttgart
Ulm
Karlsruhe
Freiburg
Ravensburg
Bad Mergentheim
Oberkirch
Probability of storm damage
g(πi) = Xi β + f (north; easti) + Zib + εi
2-dimensional function to assess spatial influence
Nor
thin
g
Easting
Schmidt et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Lessons learnt
Spatial autocorrelation
RWHW
P (S
turmschaden)
SturmschadenswahrscheinlichkeitThin Plate Regression Spline
g(πi) = Xi β + f (north; easti) + Zib + εi
2-dimensional function to assess spatial influence
EastingNorthing
Probability of storm damage
Probability of storm dam
age
Schmidt et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Lessons learnt Regionalization – map of potential risk
Northern Black Forest
0
1
.
.
...
6
-.....
.3456
5
2
0 00 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0. -
10 20 30 40.0
7
P (storm damage):
Schmidt et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
• Regionalization of risk based on digital terrain model (DTM) and inventory data and original meteorological conditions
" 0,000106 - 0,050000
" 0,050001 - 0,100000
" 0,100001 - 0,150000
" 0,150001 - 0,200000
" 0,200001 - 0,250000
" 0,250001 - 0,300000
" 0,300001 - 0,350000
" 0,350001 - 0,400000
" 0,400001 - 0,450000
" 0,450001 - 0,500000
" 0,500001 - 0,550000
" 0,550001 - 0,600000
Risk-classes
Schmidt et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
• Regionalization of risk based on digital terrain model (DTM) and inventory data and meteorological conditions type: centre of „Lothar“ - damage
" 0,000106 - 0,050000
" 0,050001 - 0,100000
" 0,100001 - 0,150000
" 0,150001 - 0,200000
" 0,200001 - 0,250000
" 0,250001 - 0,300000
" 0,300001 - 0,350000
" 0,350001 - 0,400000
" 0,400001 - 0,450000
" 0,450001 - 0,500000
" 0,500001 - 0,550000
" 0,550001 - 0,600000
Risk classes
Schmidt et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Lessons learnt
Forest management implications
• Use large disturbances to build risk models (learn lessons !)
• Use topex (northing/easting) to map and regionalize the risk (exposure, winddirection)
• Reduce height ! Decrease h/d (e.g. reach diameters earlier !)
• Choose adequate species
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Natural risks and long term forest management
1. Introduction2. Lessons learnt from „Lothar“3. „Lothar“ and the aftermath
• insect calamities• carbon sequestration• timber industry
4. What comes next ?
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
The aftermath Insect calamities
• Bark beetle attacks in the follow-up of „Lothar“
BiberachStaat
Ulm
Wangen
B ü h l
Horb
Vellberg
Leutkirch
Ehingen
Künzelsau
Vaihingen
L a h r
Pfullendorf
Z e l l
Eppingen
Schöntal
Engen
Hei lbronnBretten
Crailsheim
Schrozberg
Sulz
Radolfzell
Aalen
Backnang
Mengen
Ellwangen
Sinsheim
Langenau
Überlingen
Meßkirch
Göppingen
Weinheim
BadWaldsee
Buchen
Bopfingen
Bruchsal
O b e r k i r c h
Tettnang
Adelsheim
Stuttgart
Blaustein
Karlsruhe
Staufen
Ochsenhausen
Lörrach
Stockach
Albstadt
Wertheim
Walldürn
Rastatt
Ravensburg
Rottweil
Breisach
KirchheimNürtingen
Nagold
BalingenRiedlingen
Triberg
Münsingen
Herrenberg
Gaildor f
Jestetten
Giengen
Steinheim
Rottenburg
Neuenstadt
Wolfach
Kenzingen
Hechingen
O f f e n b u r g
Leonberg
Geislingen
Mössingen
Mosbach
Gundelsheim
Reutlingen
Donaueschingen
E l z a c h
K e h l i n R h e i n a u
Oberndorf
Schorndorf
Biberach-Staat
Heidenheim
Schramberg
Lichtenstein
Bad Urach
H a u s a c h
Calw
Blaubeuren
Schwetzingen
Wehingen
Kandern
Welzheim
Stühlingen
Zwiefalten
KarlsbadNeuenbürg
Bonndorf
Lorch
Tuttlingen
Ette n h e i m
T i tisee-Neustadt
BadSchussenried
Esslingen
Spaichingen
Tauberbischofsheim
Bad Mergentheim
S t . M ä r g e n Immendingen
Rosenfeld
Furtwangen
Heidelberg
Mühlacker
Scho p f h e i m B a d S ä c k i n g e n
Pforzheim
Maulbronn
Emm e n d i n g e n
Rosenberg
Murrhardt
W a l d k i r c h
T o d t m o o s
Eberbach
Gschwend
Schwäbisch Gmünd
Alpirsbach
K i r c h z a r t e n
S t . B l a s i e n
Phil ippsburg
Lauda-Königshofen
Schwäbisch Hall
Abtsgmünd
S c h l u chsee
Schwarzach
Müllheim/Baden
Löwenstein
Altensteig
Gammertingen
W a l d shut-Tiengen
Burladingen
Freudenstadt
Freiburg-S t a d t
Rotenfels
Gernsbach
Neckargmünd
T o d t n a u
Hardt
Baiersbronn
Weil imSchönbuch
Bad Liebenzell
G e n g e n b a c h
OberkochenB aden-BadenStadt
Villingen-SchwenningenStadt
S c h ö n a u S c h w a r z w a l d
Pfalz-grafenweiler
TübingenBebenhausen
BadWildbad
Enzklösterle
Biberach-Stadt
B a d Peterstal- G riesbach
Forbach
Klosterreichenbach
BadHerrenalb
Villingen-Schwenningen
Staat
BadRippoldsau-Schapbach
Murgschifferschaft in Forbach
Hospitalwald Dinkelsbühl
Käferh o l z f m 0 - 5 0 0 5 0 1 - 2 5 0 0 2 5 0 1 - 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 - 7 5 0 0 7 5 0 1 - 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 - 1 5 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 - 3 0 0 0 0 ü b e r 3 0 0 0 0
K ä f e r b e f a l l
n a c h
F o r s t b e z i r k e n
G e s a m t w a l d B a d e n - W ü r t t e m b e r g
ZSL FV Sz
S t a n d 3 1 . 0 1 . 2 0 0 2
Bark beetles after „Lothar“2002
Storm damage due to „Lothar“
Weigerstorfer (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
The aftermath Insect calamities
BiberachStaat
Ulm
Wangen
B ü hl
Horb
Vellberg
Leutkirch
Ehingen
Künzelsau
Vaihingen
L a h r
Pfullendorf
Z ell
Eppingen
Schöntal
Engen
HeilbronnBretten
Crailsheim
Schrozberg
Sulz
Radolfzell
Aalen
Backnang
Mengen
Ellwangen
Sinsheim
Langenau
Überlingen
Meßkirch
Göppingen
Weinheim
Bad Waldsee
Buchen
Bopfingen
Bruchsal
O berkirch
Tettnang
Adelsheim
Stuttgart
Blaustein
Karlsruhe
S t a u f e n
Ochsenhausen
Lörrach
Stockach
Albstadt
Wertheim
Walldürn
Rastatt
Ravensburg
Rottweil
Breisach
KirchheimNür tingen
Nagold
BalingenRiedlingen
Triberg
Münsingen
Herrenberg
Gaildorf
Jestetten
Giengen
Steinheim
Rottenburg
Neuenstadt
Wolfach
Kenzi n g e n
Hechingen
O f f e n b u r g
Leonberg
Geislingen
Mössingen
Mosbach
Gundelsheim
Reutlingen
Donaueschingen
E l z ach
K e h l i n R h e i n a u
Oberndorf
Schorndorf
Biberach-Staat
Heidenheim
Schramberg
Lichtenstein
BadUrach
Hausach
Calw
Blaubeuren
Schwetzingen
Wehingen
Kandern
Welzheim
Stühlingen
Zwiefalten
KarlsbadNeuenbürg
Bonndorf
Lorch
Tuttlingen
E t t e n h e i m
Titisee-Neustadt
Bad Schussenried
Esslingen
Spaichingen
Tauberbischofsheim
BadMergentheim
S t . M ä rgen
Immendingen
Rosenfeld
Furtwangen
Heidelberg
Mühlacker
S c h o p f h e i m B a d S ä c k i n g e n
Pforzheim
Maulbronn
E m m e n d i n g e n
Rosenberg
Murrhardt
W a l d k i r c h
T o d t m o o s
Eberbach
Gschwend
Schwäbisch Gmünd
Alpirsbach
K i r c h z a r t e n
S t . B l asien
Philippsburg
Lauda-Königshofen
Schwäbisch Hall
Abtsgmünd
Schluchsee
Schwarzach
Müllheim/Baden
Löwenstein
Altensteig
Gammertingen
Waldshut-Tiengen
Burladingen
Freudenstadt
Fr e i b u r g - S t a d t
Rotenfels
Gernsbach
Neckargmünd
T o d t n a u
Hardt
Baiersbronn
Weil imSchönbuch
Bad Liebenzell
G e n g e n bach
OberkochenBaden-Baden Stadt
Villingen-SchwenningenStadt
S c h ö n a u S c h w a r z w a l d
Pfalz-grafenweiler
TübingenBebenhausen
BadWildbad
Enzklösterle
Biberach-Stadt
Bad Peterstal-Griesbach
Forbach
Klosterreichenbach
BadHerrenalb
Villingen-Schwenningen
Staat
BadRippoldsau-Schapbach
Murgschifferschaft in Forbach
Hospitalwald Dinkelsbühl
Käfer h o l z f m 0 - 5 0 0 5 0 1 - 2 5 0 0 2 5 0 1 - 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 - 7 5 0 0 7 5 0 1 - 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 - 1 5 0 0 11 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0 02 0 0 0 1 - 3 0 0 0 0 ü b e r 3 0 0 0 0
K ä f e r b e f a l l n a c h
F o r s t b e z i r k e n
G e s a m t w a l d B a d e n - W ü r t t e m b e r g
ZSLFV Sz
S t a n d 3 1 . 1 2 . 2 0 0 4
Bark beetles after „Lothar“2004
Storm damage due to „Lothar“
Weigerstorfer (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
The aftermath Insect calamities
Storm damage due to „Lothar“
Calw
Biberach
O r t e n a u k r e i s
Ravensburg
Ostalbkreis
Heilbronn
Rastatt
Waldshut
Karlsruhe
Reutlingen
Rottweil
Sigmaringen
Konstanz
Loerrac h
Schwaebisch Hall
Alb-Donau-Kreis
Tuttlingen
Main-Tauber-Kreis
Enzkreis
Freudenstadt
Esslingen
Zollernalbkreis
Boeblingen
Rhein-Neckar-Kreis
Ludwigsburg
Goeppingen Heidenheim
Rems-Murr-Kreis
B r e i s g a u - H o c hschwarzwald
Hohenlohekreis
Tuebingen
Neckar-Odenwald-Kreis
E m m e n d i n g e n
Bodenseekreis
Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis
Ulm
Stuttgart
Mannheim
Karlsruhe-Stadt
Baden-Baden
Heidelberg
Pforzheim
Freiburg i m B r e i s g a u
Heilbronn-Stadt
Käferholz fm 0 - 200 0 2001 - 5 0 0 0 5001 - 1 0 0 0 0 10001 - 3 0 0 0 0 30001 - 5 0 0 0 0 50001 - 8 0 0 0 0 80001 - 1 0 0 0 0 0 100001 - 1 5 0 0 0 0 über 1 5 0 0 0 0
I n s e k t e n s c h ä d e n N a d e l h o l z e i n s c h l a g
n a c h F o r s t b e z i r k e n
G e s a m t w a l d B a d e n - W ü r t t e m b e r g
S t a n d 3 1 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 5
ZSLFV Sz
Bark beetles after „Lothar“2005
Weigerstorfer (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Cross-correlation Storm-Insects
The aftermath Insect calamities
• 2nd peaks: 10-11yrs (storm) and 15yrs (snow)
• Cross-correlation Storm/Insects:
• up to 6 years
Hanewinkel et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
The aftermath Carbon sequestration
C-removal due to „Lothar“ 1999• Living biomass (above
ground)
• Total C affected: 8.2 Million t C
• Enrichment in snags (deadwood):1.3 Million t C
Removal due tostorm :
6.9 Million t C
Zell et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
The aftermath Carbon sequestration
Change in C-pools
• Important pool : – Coarse woody debris– (= large pieces of dead down wood )
• Increase in this pool from – 2,93 t C / ha (average) to– 8,93 t C / ha (storm affected)
Zell et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
The aftermath The timber industry
0
5
10
15
20bis 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-60
60-70 >70
BHD-Stufen [cm mR]
Vorr
at [M
io. m
³ V m
R]
BWI IWW 99BWI II
19871999
2002DBH- classes (cm)
Stan
din g
vol
ume
(mi ll
ion
m3 )
<
Norway spruce (SW-Germany, State Forest )
Kändler (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Forest management implications
• Extent of insect outbreaks after disturbances often underestimated
• Pest management as integrated part of risk management
• Accumulating standing volume might not always be a wise strategy for C-sequestration
• Adapt your risk-management strategy to the needs of the timber industry
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Natural risks and long term forest management
1. Introduction2. Lessons learnt from „Lothar“3. „Lothar“ and the aftermath
• insect calamities• carbon sequestration• timber industry
4. What comes next ?
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
What comes next?
Climate scenario for Climate scenario for SW Germany (KLIWA)SW Germany (KLIWA)
• sum of yearly precipitations + 250 mm• N days with heavy rain Ø + 11• change in distribution of rain(wet winters)
• average yearly temperature + 1,5°C• N summer days Ø + 20• N heat days + 50 %• N frost-/ice-days – X
• sum of yearly precipitations + 250 mm• N days with heavy rain Ø + 11• change in distribution of rain(wet winters)
• average yearly temperature + 1,5°C• N summer days Ø + 20• N heat days + 50 %• N frost-/ice-days – X
storm
flooding
heat
drought
insects
?Weigerstorfer (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
What comes next?
Salvage cuttings SW-Germany public forest(1953-1970 / 1979-2005)
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
1953 1958 1963 1968 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1000
m3
"Wiebke" 1990 "Lothar" 1999
Weigerstorfer (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
What comes next?
Salvage cuttings SW-Germany public forest(1953-1970 / 1979-2005)
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
1953 1958 1963 1968 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1000
m3
"Wiebke" 1990 "Lothar" 1999
Weigerstorfer (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
What comes next?
Storm damage probabilities• Storm damage
probability increases– at higher elevations,– with higher timber
volume,– …,– across the century.
Hanewinkel et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
What comes next?
Periodicity of storm-damage
• Power spectrum estimation
• Harmonic analysis • Maxima for
harmonics at frequency 11 yrs for storm
Hanewinkel et al. (2006)
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Forest management implications
• Scientific analysis instead of fatalism
• Realistic scenarios instead of „worst-case scenarios“
• Probabilities, amount of damage and periodicity of disturbances are needed (long term time series !!)
• Use information to build insurance models for storm damage
• Use new technologies to conserve timber after large disturbances
Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute
Thank you for your attention !!