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Temperature Adjustment of UK Energy Statistics
Iain MacLeay
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Between 2009 and 2010 what happened to UK energy consumption ?
Did it
a. Rise by 3.9%
b. Rise by 2.9%
c. Remain broadly unchanged
d. Fall by 0.6%
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Annual average temperature (degrees Celsius)
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Deg
rees
cels
ius
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
•
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000
Tem
pera
ture
chan
ge
GWh change
Change in gas supply v temperature change
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Primary Energy Consumption
Million tonnes of oil equivalent
UnadjustedSeasonally and temperature adjusted (annual rates)
2009 211.1 212.6
2010 217.3 211.3
Per cent change +2.9 -0.6
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Statistical Model
Y = C * I * S * TD * E * tempWhere:Y = observed time seriesC = trend-cycleI = irregular componentS = seasonal factorTD = trading day effectE = Easter effecttemp = Temperature coefficient
Note: Model can be arithmetic rather than multiplicative Y = C + I + S + TD + E + temp; or a combination of the two.
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Temperature correction
Y / temp = C * I *S * TD * E
Assume no temperature, Easter or trading day effects then:
Y = C * I * S
And the seasonally and temperature adjusted series is
Y / S = C * I
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Two main statistical techniques used• Regression
– Easter– Trading days– Temperature effects
• Moving averages– Trend-cycle– Seasonal component
+ ARIMA modelling to help improve the calculation of the moving averages (extend time series by forecasting one year of additional data)
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
How do we currently adjust for temperature• Gas
– National Grid provide temperature adjusted series as well as the raw data for gas
– Adjustments are smaller in the summer months of July and August. Largest adjustments in fact appear in Spring and Autumn
– Does this seem sensible ?• Coal
– Adjusted by factor of 2.1. – If temperature is 2 degrees above “normal” then factor = (2 * 2.1)
= 4.2. Raw data is divided by 0.958 resulting in temperature adjustment increasing the series.
– Warm weather – use less energy – so temperature adjusted series should be higher
– Same adjustment used irrespective of season
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Temperature adjustment
Alternative methods1. Use same factors for each month – or specific
factors for each month2. Use monthly average temperatures (current
practice) or degree days (only use heating if daily temperature above/below threshold)
3. Growth in cooling – should this be adjusted for?Data• DECC receive data from the Met Office (17 stations
reporting daily max and min temperatures)
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Coal data
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Coal data
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Coal data
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Average monthly temperature
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Heating degree days
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Temperature adjustment factors
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
Final factors – using degree day methodology
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2008 2009 2010
ktoe
Domestic gas consumption
Raw dataTemperature correctedSeasonally and temperature corrected
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Temperature adjustment of UK Energy Statistics Iain MacLeay – May 2011
UK energy growth 2009 to 2010
Raw data Temperature corrected data
Primary energy consumption
+2.9% -0.6%
Final energy consumption
+3.9% +0.1%
Domestic gas consumption
+15.0% -0.4%