collaborating and sharing
why and how we teach foresight to public sector organizations
challenges of teaching foresight methods inside the public sector
key messages
methods and tools to teach
creative ways to message
crowd-sourcing solutions
concrete tools
Long-term, strategic decision making
Planning spending
Setting priorities
Resilience in coping with change
Socio-economic
Organizational
Legislative
Creating a Common Vocabulary
Teach, Demonstrate, Practice, Confirm
Engaging the participant
I see and I forget.
I hear and I remember.
I do and I understand.
Confucius
Description & ExplanationIntelligencePolicy &Planning
What is.
What if?
What if?
Reality Space Decision SpaceInformation/Analysis Space
What islikely.
What islikely.
Policy
•Possible/Imaginable
•Plausible
•Probable/Predictable
•Past/Present
Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight
© John Schmidt
Foresight
Intelligence/Research
• Emerging trends• Scenarios/what-ifs• Weak signals• Outliers, Black swans• Resiliency factors• Drivers & Signposts
• Current/Operational• Tactical forecast• Strategic forecast• Current trends• Statistical predictions• Monitoring/Alerts
Planning& Policy
DecisionsActions
Near Far
Range of interest
Requirements& Tasking
Outcomes:• Intended• Unintended
Teaching A Complex, Interactive System
The concept that we
(individuals, organizations, communities)
are not traveling toward one inevitable
destiny/destination
can use foresight tools and methods to
see plausible/futures and
can effect change that will affect the
outcome and choose our future
Teach
Demonstrate
Practice
Confirm
What to tell
How to use
Allow group and
individual practice
Validate with the
group
Hal Jordan, Air Force Pilot
"In brightest day, in blackest night,
No evil shall escape my sight.
Let those who worship evil's might
Beware my power--Green Lantern's light!"