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THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION: CREATING A HYBRID REGIME?
(as of – 2009)
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SIX DIMENSIONS Generational turnover Phenomena that sustain the new elite Bolivarian Vision and its use Constraints of the vision Elections and Referendums The Future
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I. GENERATIONAL TURNOVER
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REVOLUTIONARY LEADERSHIP: NEW & OLD
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QUEBEC SUMMIT (APRIL 2001): DECISIVE IN SHAPING PRESIDENT CHAVEZ’S
CONFRONTATIONAL STYLE?
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A NEW GENERATION OF IMPLEMENTERS
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BOLI-BURGESIA
Vehicle of Choice
Living as a socialist revolutionary
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II. PHENOMENA THAT SUSTAIN THE NEW ELITE
Class conflict Hostility to western modernization
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CARACAS: MODERN & WESTERN?
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CARACAS: POOR & PRIMITIVE
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PHENOMENA THAT SUSTAIN THE NEW ELITE: CLASS CONFLICT
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OTHER PHENOMENON THAT SUSTAIN THE BOLIVARIANS Memories (some implanted) of venality and
incompetence of the defunct liberal democratic regime
Revenge against those who benefited from Punto Fijo
Anti-Americanism
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III. THE BOLIVARIAN VISION AND ITS USE
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ABANDON FAILED ISI POLICIES
Replace the (mistaken) vision of using Venezuelan wealth to emulate living style of the North Atlantic “Punto Fijo” democracy unraveled because it
stimulated desire for western life style that is neither feasible or desirable
ISI (between 1958 – 1990) sought to facilitate high levels of middle class consumption
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OPPOSE SAVAGE NEO-LIBERALISM
Mistaken reliance on free markets to “westernize”
Not feasible in Latin America
Not desirable
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MORE ON THE BOLIVARIAN VISION
Basic human needs must be made available to all Education health care Housing Culture
Petroleum income can facilitate the vision (some things never change)
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STILL MORE ON THE BOLIVARIAN VISION
Disdain for the traditional middle class Suspicion of meritocracy – a cover to exclude the
disadvantaged Emphasis: equality of outcome Highest priority - making the urban slums livable
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USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION: DOMESTIC AFFAIRS
Discredit accomplishments of defunct liberal democracy Failure to reach stated goals Corruption
Domestic entrepreneurial sector attacked for selfishness and corruption
Urban space with middle class symbols allowed to deteriorate
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USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION: TAMING THE MILITARY
Among 59 top positions in the Venezuelan armed forces - Chávez changed 45 (75%) in July 2005 and 2006
National Guard – most impacted (24 of the 29 top positions)
Ties with Cuba replace training by U.S. military asymmetric warfare
to discourage opposition hope that the Marines will land
Alternative force to regular military
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CHANGES MILITARY DOCTRINE/TRAINING
War College in Los Chorros closed for six months Manuals and text books being rewritten Emphasis on asymmetric warfare
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USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION: INTERNATIONAL ARENA
Controlled elevation of tensions with the United States (symbol of Western consumerism)
Search for allies that seek to diminish power/influence of the United States
Policies that bolster high price for petroleum OPEC China
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CHÁVEZ’S HEMISPHERIC VISION: BRAZIL PLAYS A KEY
ROLE IN REDUCING U.S. INFLUENCE
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IV. CONSTRAINTS ON CHÁVEZ’S BOLIVARIAN “VISION” Class conflict emphasis
complicates using expertise/talent developed between 1958-98
Talent necessary to stem deterioration of infrastructure
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OTHER CONSTRAINING CONSEQUENCES Failure to define role for loyal opposition
strengthens option of political change by force
Discouragement of foreign investment from the North Atlantic – unintended consequence - increases dependence on petroleum income
“Small vision” ISI strengthens dependence on revenue from petroleum
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UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT: A CONSTRAINT ON THE CHÁVEZ
VISION?
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USA AS SEEN BY THE VENEZUELAN PEOPLE
Many supporters of Bolivarian revolution have brought into Chávez’s negative view of the Untied States
Positive view of the U.S. at all time low (35% in poll of public opinion – Sept. 2005)
Bolivarians see some groups in U.S. as allies in their struggle with U.S. ruling elite Poor Leftist academics