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SYMMETRIC INSTABILITIES IN DMC INITIATION - FORECASTER POINT OF VIEW Thomas Krennert ZAMG – Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria [email protected]
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CASE STUDY: 28 July 2005, 1100 UTC, MSG RGB Image loop
R 8.7µ G 7.3µ B 6.2µ
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CASE STUDY: 28 July 2005, 1100 UTC, MSG RGB Image loop
R 8.7µ G 7.3µ B 6.2µ
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CASE STUDY: 28 July 2005, 1100 UTC, MSG RGB Image loop
R 8.7µ G 7.3µ B 6.2µ
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CASE STUDY: 28 July 2005, 1100 UTC, MSG RGB Image loop
R 8.7µ G 7.3µ B 6.2µ
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PV up to > 2 PVU
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
DMC @ ULMG – FAVOURABLE INGREDIENTS 1
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DRY INTRUSION THETAE DECREASING
HORIZONTAL LAPSE RATE GRADIENT / CHANGE OF VERTICAL STABILITY
DMC @ ULMG – FAVOURABLE INGREDIENTS 2
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INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AT MOISTURE GRADIENTS
DMC @ ULMG – FAVOURABLE INGREDIENTS 3
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DMC @ ULMG – FAVOURABLE INGREDIENTS
IN CASE OF INSUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS: WILL A SATURATED AIR PARCEL REACH THE LFC?
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Upper level ingredients will not cause DMC per se
“Dry streaks” with cyclonic curvature and significant propagation will induce lift on a scale larger than MESO (“upper fronts”, ULL, pre-frontal TS)
Convective initiation within a high pressure environment depends on the formation of shallow clouds from elevated grounds
Shallow, humid clouds will stay that way without further increase of lift or instability
Counter indicators:
o Capping inversion (summer morning, orography)
o Insufficient ground moisture to reach LFC
DMC @ ULMG – DISCUSSION
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DMC @ ULMG – THE MISSING LINK ?
Distinct pattern of negative Equivalent Potential Vorticity EPV up to 600 hPa
EPV < 0 can be seen as an indicator for symmetric instabilities SI (Mc Cann, 1995; Hoskins, 1974)
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Convection can possess characteristics of slantwise convection, gravitational convection, or both (Schultz and Schumacher, 1999; Fantini et al., 2011)
Coexistence of: CSI/PSI, CI/PI, adequate moisture / lift
Limitations: identifying regions with PVg / EPVg and slantwise convection might also indicate PI / CI and gravitational convection
INDICATORS FOR SYMMETRIC INSTABILITIES – NEGATIVE EPV
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28 July 2005, 1200 UTC, NEGATIVE Eqivalent Potential Vorticity, EPV [|-5| (blue) to |-30| (red)10-6 K*m2/kg*sec], 850 – 500 hPa, WRF-model
Saturated buoyant air parcel reaches a zone of distinct negative EPVg
A possible release of SI leading to slantwise convection supports convective lift (cms-1)?
Provides sufficient lift for the air parcel to reach LFC?
INDICATORS FOR SYMMETRIC INSTABILITIES – NEGATIVE EPV
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28 July 2005, 1200 UTC Symmetric Available Potential Energy, SCAPE above 950 hPa, (Dixon, 2000) 500 (blue) to 3000 (red) J/kg WRF-model
Symmetric Available Potential Energy SCAPE
INDICATORS FOR SYMMETRIC INSTABILITIES – SCAPE
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DMC @ ULMG – OPERATIONALLY APPLICABLE ?
First efforts for operational usage at ZAMG – higher probability for DMC ?
o Mid-tropospheric SCAPE / EPV<0 as indicators for additional lift - > LFC
o RGB Loops for NOWCAST purposes
Providing additional information in connection to orographically induced “fair weather” pulse convection
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APPENDIX 1: THETA E & RELHUM at 300 hPA
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APPENDIX 2: Isophlets 1,5 PVU / Level; SV=0 Jet indicator at 300 hPA
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APPENDIX 3: VERTICAL CROSS SECTION ISOPHLETS