Download - SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
1/42
Proposing Panarchy Theory as a synthesis and
validation mechanism for ABM models of
Sociological & Ecological Systems
SwarmFest 2013
Fahad Ahmad Khan Ivan GaribayUniversity of Central Florida
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
2/42
The Goal Here is to
Panarchy as Meta-Stylized Fact for Complex Adaptive Systems
simulation (specifically in Sociological and Ecological studies)
Devising Mechanisms, Algorithms, ABM Agent Rules for the
observance of Panarchy in simulations
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
3/42
What does Panarchy Explain
Panarchy theory represents the evolution of complex
adaptive systems in three dimensional space -
potential, connectivity & resilience
It is a qualitative description of the adjustment or
adaptation of systems to change in external
environment
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
4/42
Why is Panarchy deemed useful
Itsa meta-model which helps to explain resilience of
systems in terms of evolutionary network dynamics
such as potential and connectedness
Resilient systems by definition should be able to
adapt and adjust to unforeseen events, to absorb
change and learn from diversity
It is widely accepted with only few counter examples
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
5/42
How does Panarchy work
The Adaptive Cycle
There are four phases in the Panarchy model through
which a function of the three variables should
periodically cycle
The phases are Exploitation, Conservation, Release &
Reorganization
The variables are Potential, Connectedness &
resilience
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
6/42
How does Panarchy work
Panarchy Phases
Exploitation (r):Also referred to as the birthphase. This stage is oneof rapid expansion. Pioneer and opportunist species proliferate, building
up biomass and greater connectedness. Therefore, in this stage,
connectedness and stability increase. In ecological terms, this stage occurs
when a population finds a fertile niche in which to grow.
Conservation (K): Also referred to as the growth and maturationphase. This is a stage of slow accumulation and storage of energy and
materials. Here, the biological capital is stored and connectedness reaches
its peak. In ecology this stage occurs when a population reaches itscarrying capacity and stabilizes for a time.
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
7/42
How does Panarchy work
Panarchy Phases
Release (): Also referred to as the death phase. This stage occursrapidly in a system that has become over-connected. The release of storedcarbon and nutrients is triggered and causes quick and drastic changes. Inecosystems this stage occurs when a population declines due to acompetitor or changed conditions.
Reorganization ():Also referred to as the renewalphase. This stagecan also occur rapidly, where the system renews itself or flips into anotherstate. This new state may be less productive and organized than theprevious state. The reorganization phase is characterized by weak
connections, weak organization and weak regulation, and is considered tobe the most unpredictable stage. In ecological terms, during this stagecertain members of a population are selected for their ability to survivedespite competitors or changed conditions that triggered the release.
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
8/42
Phases in the Adaptive Cycle
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
9/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
10/42
The Normal Route in an Adaptive Cycle
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
11/42
Routes for Poverty and Richness Traps
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
12/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
13/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
14/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
15/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
16/42
How does Panarchy work
Panarchy Variables
Potential
Potential means the possibility of novelty in the system. A roughanalogue would be information content in the system.
ConnectivityConnectivity implies the richness of links between interacting entitles inthe system. In terms of graph theory the it translates into density ofedges between vertices (or links between nodes in Network Theory).
ResilienceResilience is the capability to withstand shock without catastrophicfailure
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
17/42
weak strong
low
high
2-D View of Panarchy
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
18/42
The space between consecutive arrow-heads is a qualitative
indicator of the speed of the transition through phases
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
19/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
20/42
Conservation
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
21/42
Release
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
22/42
Reorganization
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
23/42
Exploitation
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
24/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
25/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
26/42
The Complete Adaptive Cycle
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
27/42
Examples
Functional Typology
Adaptive Cycle r K
Ecosystems Exploitation Conservation Release Reorganization
Economics Entrepreneurship Saturation /
Monopolism
Creative
Destruction
Innovation
Organizations
&
Bureaucracies
Structuration Consolidation Breakdown /
Revolt
Reformation
Exploitation Exploration
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
28/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
29/42
http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/
http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/ -
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
30/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
31/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
32/42
There are already models that show how to increaseconnectedness so the network follows power-laws e.g.Preferential Attachment by Barabasi]
For Panarchy Jain and Krishnas model of Network Growthusing Autocatalytic Sets is better because it also has diversityin terms of node roles and a mechanism for replication &differential fitness (competition) along with adherence topower-laws
Replication, Variation (Mutation) and Differential Fitness(Competition) guarantee evolution according to DanielDennett
Panarchy for ABMs
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
33/42
Their model exhibits the Punctuated Equilibrium
phenomenon which is another word for periodic self-
organization after system crashes
Thus their model exhibits Panarchy in a Stylized manner
Sand Pile models exhibit a stylized form of Panarchy but they
only have dynamics of self-organization and no evolution
Panarchy for ABMs
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
34/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
35/42
Panarchy for ABMs
Stefan Thurners model revolves around the mechanism of
species recombination and this results in triggers
Both Stefan Thurner and Krishnas models have exogenous
forces for triggering extinction events and no dissipative
mechanisms for death
It would be interesting to see if endogenous mechanisms such
as inhibiting feedbacks in the network could be devised for
these triggers
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
36/42
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
37/42
Goals
Panarchy as Meta-Stylized Fact for Complex Adaptive Systems
simulation (specifically in Sociological and Ecological studies)
Devising Mechanisms, Algorithms, ABM Agent Rules for the
observance of Panarchy in simulations
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
38/42
Conclusion
Panarchy could act as a unifying mechanism for synthesisand validation of Agent Based Models for Sociological and
Ecological Systems
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
39/42
Questions
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
40/42
Complexity
A Generative Network approach for Complex Adaptive Systems
Dynamic Networks
Genetic Algorithms
Using Panarchy Theory to devise Genetic Algorithms
A better paradigm for search in Genetic algorithms
May result in development of adaptive controllers i.e. controllers that adapt their
transfer function in response to continuously changing stimuli/environments
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
41/42
Increase in Novelty/Information/Innovation increases the width of the attractor basin for the
next adaptive loop, thereby, increasing the resilience and stability of the system for the next
adaptive cycle
-
7/27/2019 SwarmFest - Panarchy Theory
42/42
Devise/Discover/Suggest mechanisms for the entry and exit of the system state through
various phases of the adaptive
Evaluate what would lead the system to go form the back loop into the forward loop i.e.
from reorganization and then growth to consequently conservation and eventually
release
For Example, what is the mechanism for the punctuated equilibrium can be observed
when the system goes from conservation to release
Meta-Stylized fact for ABM simulations of socio-ecological systems