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Sustainability and Climate Change: Trends and Solutions
Jonathan LashWorld Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org
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Millennial N. Hemisphere (AD1000-1999)
Source: IPCC TAR
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations
270280290300310320330340350360370
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
part
s pe
r m
illio
n vo
lum
e
Mauna Loa (1958-present)
Siple Station (1750-)
299 ppmv
Highest in last 420,000 yrs
370 ppmvMost recent
Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm
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Global CO2 Emissions Growth
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August 28, 2005
Photo Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team
Hurricane Katrina
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Hurricane Trends
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The Frequency of Weather Related Disasters
Data:
Swiss Re 2005
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Dramatic Changes: An Ice-free Arctic? 1979-2003:
Progressive Loss of Arctic Ice
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Antarctic Ice
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New Patterns of Pest Damage
The New York Times, June 25, 2002
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1960 – World’s 6th largest lake
1963 – 2001 shrunk 95%, wetlands spoilt
Source: UNEP – ONE PLANET MANY PEOPLE: Atlas of our Changing Environment
Lake Chad
Water withdrawals from rivers/lakes doubled since 1960
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Changes in Ocean Circulation
• Transect at 23º N latitude– Measurements
taken in 1957, 1981, 1992, 1998, 2004
• Indicates a 30% reduction in ocean circulation volume since 1957
Source: Ocean current figure: www.NASA.govTransect information: Bryden, Harry L. et al. "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N." Nature 438: 655-657. 1 December 2005
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• That’s What One Degree Gets Us
• Where to Next?
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Projections of CO2 and Temperature to 2100
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Drought Expectations
The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months—and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus 3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.
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Scenario of damages in 2050
Source: The Guardian, based on Pentagon report
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People at Risk from a 44 cm sea-level rise by the 2080s
(Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection)
Source: IPCC TAR.
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Temperature Projections and Risk
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Assumed Advances In• Fossil Fuels
• Energy intensity• Nuclear
• Renewables
The “Gap”Gap
technologies• E.g. CCS
Stabilizing CO2
Base Case and “Gap” Technologies
Source: Jae Edmonds, PNNL/Univ MD
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20552005
14
7
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
1955
0
Currently
projected path
Flat path
Historical emissions
1.9
2105
14 GtC/y
7 GtC/y
Seven “wedges”
Wedges
O
Source: Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi
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Energy Efficiency
Coal-based Synfuels with CCS
Wind power
Reforestation
Mass transit
Stabilization Triangle
2004 2054
7 GtC/y
14 GtC/y
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges
Carbon Capture & Storage
Adapted from:
Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi
Biofuels
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Managing Risk: Measure/Manage
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Dupont
Global Greenhouse Gases
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•Alcoa Inc.•Cargill Dow LLC•Delphi Corporation•Dow Chemical Company•DuPont•FedEx Kinko's•General Motors•IBM•Interface•Johnson & Johnson•NatureWorks LLC•Pitney Bowes•Staples•Starbucks
GPMDG
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GE: Ecomagination
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Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing
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Real-world examples
BrazilBiofuels for transportReducing the economic impact of oil imports and supporting the rural economy
ChinaInnovative transport approachesPromoting mobility while avoiding urban infrastructure and oil supply constraints
South AfricaCarbon capture and storageFinding ways to reduce the impact of coal in developing countries
IndiaRenewable energy in rural electrificationProviding electricity faster and safer to 500 million people
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Farmer demonstrations in India around electricity access and
pricing
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Electrification will have a major impact on climate change without new
policies and approaches
IEA, 2003
Mill
ion p
eople
wit
hout
ele
ctri
city
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New York City circa 1950
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New York City December 2001
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