Thought Leaders Round Table – SAT. 17 May – FIU – Miami
Strategy Presentation by
Michael Rowan and Luis Fleischman
About Dr. Luis Fleischman
• Two decades of Middle East and national security expertise
• Senior advisor for the Menges Hemispheric Security Project
at the Center for Security Policy (Washington)
• Co-editor with Nancy Menges of The Americas Report
• Author of “Latin America in the Post Chavez Era: The
Threat to U.S Security”, 2013
• Columnist and commentator for radio & TV
• Adjunct professor of Sociology and Political Science at
Florida Atlantic University Honors College
• M. A. and Ph.D. in Sociology from the New School for
Social Research in New York City
• B.A degree in Political Science and Labor Studies from
Tel Aviv University, Israel
About Michael Rowan
• Columnist for El Universal - 1996 to present
• Columnist for Veneconomia - 1999 to present
• Author, Getting Over Chavez & Poverty - 2006 (Libros El Nacional)
• Co-Author, The Threat Closer to Home - 2009 (Free Press)
• Presidential campaign strategist in Venezuela: 1993 (Claudio Fermin)
and 2006 (Manuel Rosales)
• Strategist for Oscar Arias (Costa Rica), Rafael Hernandez Colon (P.R.),
Jaime Paz Zamora (Bolivia), Bas Panday (Trinidad & Tobago),
Joaquim Balaguer (Dominican Republic)
• Campaign consultant in 36 US states (1970 – 2010)
• President, International Association of Political Consultants (1986-7)
• Co-founder of Climate Prosperity Enterprise Solutions LLC - 2009 to present
About Venezuelan-Americans
have university degrees (compared to 29% of Americans) 51%
70% are fluent in English
Source: US State Department
What’s it about?
• Government repression of the citizenry
• Paramilitary hit-and-run motorbike thugs
• Excessive use of deadly force
• Confiscation of constitutional freedoms
• A climate of fear and scarcity
Global condemnation of brutality
US & EU:
“Excessive use of force,
unacceptable repression”
Mario Vargas Llosa:
“Venezuela is going the way
of Cuba and North Korea”
El Universal, April, 2014
Vatican, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador
initiative for dialogue…
Getting Nowhere
The Government
is not serious
Venezuela’s Democracy
Assets
Sanctions pressure
from US and world
could leverage
a livable deal
Venezuelan history is
free, democratic,
and prosperous Venezuelans are
culturally unified
History at 1970
Large
middle class:
30% then vs.
5% now
Poised to
enter the
First
World
First
democracy
in Latin
America
1958
Values
Keller survey, March 2014
75% prefer
democratic
government
18% revolutionary
government
81% say many private
enterprises are
essential for the
progress of all
Venezuelans
Culture
90%+ still believe in
private
property
private
enterprise
private
schools
individualism
free
speech
free press
right to
peaceful
assembly
rule of law
Big data shows
TV Telenovelas
Game shows
Sports
Entertainment
Advertising
resonate with
a culture of
Consumers
Free choice
Individualism
Democracy
Law
Here’s a surprise
DATOS and 30.11 Consultores audience research surveys, 2013
85% watch the
2 private TV stations
remaining
even though
8 GOV channels
are actively
persecuting
private TV
Here’s a bigger surprise!
85% of pro-government
voters watch
private TV
every day
DATOS and 30.11 Consultores audience research surveys, 2013
90% of the poorest
Venezuelans
(E class)
watch private TV
every day
Power and money of a Narco-Petro-State
Entrenched corrupt regime
Militarization, Cuba, FARC, Iran, Russia
Venezuela’s Democracy
Liabilities
US sanctions are based upon
> US Leverage
Very high because:
The 750,000 b/d from
Venezuela must be refined
in US (no alternatives)
US is only full-price buyer
of Venezuelan oil
Venezuela is dependent on
oil sales for 96% of its
dollar income
> US Values
Democracy
Freedoms
Human Rights
> US Interests
National Security:
Russian missiles
Iranian nuclear materials
FARC cocaine
Cuban “advisors”
Global money-laundering
Venezuelan oil is not a
national interest of US,
which doesn’t need it
The solution is foreign
investment, but
Only independent
economic policies
can reverse
disastrous trends
Only independent
economic leaders
are credible
to global investors
Ergo, PM Thatcher’s “TINA”
There Is No Alternative
Independents lead economic ministries,
rationalize the economy, investment returns
Modus vivendi with GOV until the next election
GOV frees political prisoners, students
International monitoring of the agreement
is made transparent
Likely political
supporters of
TINA deal
Vatican
Brazil
Colombia
Maybe:
Ecuador (dollarized economy)
Cuba (8-year dollarized tax-free
investment policy, 15% profit tax
Propose it: Cuba’s law would
be a godsend to Venezuela
Facing TINA, GOV has
three choices
Don’t do it (economy collapses)
Do it (and share the credit
for improvements)
Hesitate (economy collapses)
?
Promote the deal
to all the people
of Venezuela It is a win-win deal
Reject revenge
Embrace amnesty
Dancing over the corpses of adversaries
does not build an advanced homeland” Dissident leader Belal Fadl of Egypt
Sanctions pressure
from US and world
could leverage
a livable deal
Venezuelan history is
free, democratic,
and prosperous Venezuelans are
culturally unified
Use Your Assets
Recognize Your Liabilities
Power and money of a Narco-Petro-State
Entrenched corrupt regime
Militarization, Cuba, FARC, Iran, Russia