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&
&
Current Real-Time Surge Predictions Systems for Metro New York
Stony Brook Storm Surge Model
Stevens Institute
of Technologys
Storm Surge
model (NYHOPS)
NOAA Extratropical Storm
Surge model
http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/maritimeforecast/
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge
http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu/
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Model Grids
Blumberg et al. 1999
SIT Grid
SBSS
Grid
NOAA ET Grid
SUNY-SB Realtime MM5 Domains
MM5 36 km,12 km and 4 km nested model domains.
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Regional topographyand flooding zones
MinorMajor
The 50-year distribution of storm surge heights (above mean high water -MHW) > 0.5 m at the Battery, NYC since 1958. The minor and majorsurge events are identified as those surge heights 0.6-1.0 m above MHWand > 1.0 m above MHW, respectively.
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Real-Time Modeling Systems
.
Storm Surge Forecasting Systems
Institution Atmospheric Forcing Ocean Model Start Time
Stony Brook 5 MM5 / 3 WRF members ADCIRC 0000 UTC
StevensInstitute of Technology NCEP - NAM model Princeton Ocean Model 12:00 AM
NOAA NCEP - GFS model NOAA Extratropical Storm Surge model 0000 UTC
Stony Brook Storm Surge Model (SBSS) uses 5 MM5
and 3 WRF membersStony Brook Storm Surge Model Atmospheric Ensemble Members
Members Model Microphysics PBL Scheme Radiation Initial Condition Cumulus
9a MM5 Simple Ice MRF Cloud Radiation WRF-NMM Grell
BMMY MM5 Simple Ice MY CCM2 GFS Betts Miller
GRBLK MM5 Simple Ice Blackadar CCM2 NOGAPS Grell
K2MRF MM5 Reisner MRF Cloud Radiation GFS Kain Fritsch
K2MY MM5 Simple Ice MY CCM2 Canadian Model Kain Fritsch
221 WRF Ferrier YSU RRTM WRF-NMM Kain Fritsch
GFS WRF Ferrier YSU RRTM GFS model Grell
NOG WRF WSM3 YSU RRTM NOGAPS Betts Miller
. 1
1
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SBSS-predicted maximum surges
associated with Hurricane Irene 28
Aug 2011.
Resolution Issues
Resolution vs. speed
Stakeholder requirements What are the limits? How much is too much?
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Storm Surge Model for the New York
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MM5 (GRMRF)-NAM WRF(GRYSU)-GFS
0000 UTC April 16th, 2007 SLP (contour), Temp (shaded) and wind
WRF-GFS
MM5-NAM
OBS
Bias Corr-ALL
NOAA-ET
ALLBias Corr-ALL
NOAA-ET
SBSS
SIT
SIT
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Daily Averaged Significant Wave Height, m
DailyMeanError,m
Significant Wave Height at buoy 44017 vs. 24-48 h Mean Error at Montauk
( )
ALL
ENS3
ENS3-BC
ALL-BC
SBSS
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Storm Surge Model for the New York
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SBSSALLENS-3
> 0.3 m Surge
> 0.4 m Surge
ALL
ALL
SBSS
SBSS
ENS3
ENS3
Fig. 23
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Fig. 28: Hudson Watershed Gauged Streamflows
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
9/14/199912:00
9/15/19990:00
9/15/199912:00
9/16/19990:00
9/16/199912:00
9/17/19990:00
9/17/199912:00
9/18/19990:00
9/18/199912:00
9/19/19990:00
9/19/199912:00
Date/Time (UTC(GMT))
Based on 7-16 global climate models and 3 emissions scenarios. Data fromNational Weather service (NWS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). Rapid ice-melt scenario is based on acceleration ofrecent ice melt in Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and paleoclimatestudies. Source: Horton, R., V. Gornitz and M. Bowman (2010).
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The End