Stock Market Briefing:Selected P/E Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 22, 2018
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Forward P/E: S&P 500/400/600 1-3Median Forward P/E: S&P 500 4Forward P/E: Russell 2000 5P/E & PEG: S&P 500 6Trailing P/E 7P/E 8-9Forward P/E: Growth vs Value 10
Figure 1.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198
10
12
14
16
18
20
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/22
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*(daily)
S&P 500 LargeCap (16.3)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198
10
12
14
16
18
20
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5/22
S&P 400 MidCap (16.5)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
5/22
S&P 600 SmallCap (17.7)
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Forward P/E: S&P 500/400/600
Page 1 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 2.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198
12
16
20
24
28
32
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
5/18
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(weekly)
S&P 500 LargeCap (16.2)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198
12
16
20
24
8
12
16
20
24
5/18
S&P 400 MidCap (16.5)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198
12
16
20
24
8
12
16
20
24
5/18
S&P 600 SmallCap (17.7)
* Weekly stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Forward P/E: S&P 500/400/600
Page 2 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
5/22
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)
S&P 500 LargeCap (16.3)S&P 400 MidCap (16.5)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.7)
* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
5/18
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*(weekly)
S&P 500 LargeCap (16.2)S&P 400 MidCap (16.5)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.7)
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 4.
Forward P/E: S&P 500/400/600
Page 3 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 206
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Apr
yardeni.com
FORWARD P/E RATIO FOR S&P 500 (MEDIAN)
S&P 500 Median Forward P/E (16.8)
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 5.
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 205
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr
yardeni.com
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 (ACTUAL & MEDIAN)
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio* (16.3)
S&P 500 Median Forward P/E (16.8)
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 6.
Median Forward P/E: S&P 500
Page 4 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202010
15
20
25
30
35
40
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
5/17
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR RUSSELL 2000*(weekly)
Russell 2000 (24.3)Russell 2000 Growth (31.0)Russell 2000 Value (19.4)
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201910
15
20
25
30
35
10
15
20
25
30
35
5/17
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR US SMALLCAP *
P/E capped at 35 due to extreme values. Russell 2000 (24.3)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.7)
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 8.
Forward P/E: Russell 2000
Page 5 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 224
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
S&P 500 Reported Trailing P/E1960-1978
S&P 500 Forward P/E* 1979-present
5/17
* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly from January 1979 through April 1994, then weekly.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
5/17
yardeni.com
S&P 500 VALUATION: PEG RATIO
PEG Ratio* (1.0)
* Forward P/E divided by LTEG, which is 5-year forward consensus expected annual earnings growth. Monthly through 2005, then weekly.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 10.
P/E & PEG: S&P 500
Page 6 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1
P/E RATIO FOR S&P 500 (Using Trailing Reported Earnings)*
Capped at 45 due to extreme values
* Using 4-quarter trailing reported earnings.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 11.
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208
12
16
20
24
28
32
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
Q1
Apr
S&P 500 P/E RATIOSS&P 500 P/Es
Trailing (using operating earnings)* (20.7)Forward** (16.8)
* Using quarterly average of daily data for S&P 500 price index, and 4-quarter trailing operating earnings.** S&P 500 stock price index divided by S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
Trailing P/E
Page 7 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q4
US EQUITY MARKET CAPITALIZATION: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(as a ratio of NFC after-tax profits from current production*)
* Including IVA and CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 13.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q4
Q4
US EQUITY MARKET CAPITALIZATION EXCLUDING FOREIGN ISSUES
As a ratio of:After-Tax Profits from Current Production* (Avg = 13.8)
Corporate Cash Flow** (Avg = 9.1)
* Including IVA and CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals anddepreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.
** After-tax operating retained earnings plus tax-return-based depreciation.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts, andStandard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 14.
P/E
Page 8 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
15
25
35
45
55
5
15
25
35
45
55
5/17
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX*
S&P 500 (16.5)
S&P 500 Technology (18.3)
* Stock price index divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
5/17
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500*
S&P 500 (16.5)
S&P 500 Ex Technology (16.0)
* Stock price index divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
P/E
Page 9 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5/17
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE*
Growth (19.3)
Value (14.2)
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 17.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
5/17
PEG RATIOS FOR S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE*
Growth (1.18)Value (0.92)
* Using 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth and price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
Forward P/E: Growth vs Value
Page 10 / May 22, 2018 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
http://blog.yardeni.com
http://blog.yardeni.com
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.