St t f I itState of IngenuityComparisons to National Trends
Norman Walzer and Brian L. HargerSenior Research Scholar Research Associate
Presented to
SOI Steering CommitteeWhitewater, Wisconsin
11/18/2011 1
Population & Employment TrendsPopulation & Employment Trends
11/18/2011 2
Population Change by Age Cohort
52.5%
60.0%
State of Ingenuity Region
28.5%
44.5%
30.8%30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
to 202
0
Silent Generation
8.1% 7.6%3 6% 4 3%
7.3%11.0%
15.8%
4.6%10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
cent Cha
nge 20
10t
Baby Bust
Generation Z
3.6%
‐0.7%
2.8% 4.3%0.9%
‐7.9%
4.6%2.6%
‐10.0%
0.0%
Perc
Baby BoomersMillennials
‐14.5%‐20.0%
11/18/2011 3
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2011.
Population Change by Age Cohort
58.8%60 0%
70.0%
State of Ingenuity Region
31 5%
49.2%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
to 203
0
Generation
8.5% 9.3% 8.3%11.1%
18.4%
31.5%
17.1%
10 0%
20.0%
30.0%
cent Cha
nge 20
20t
Baby Bust
Generation Z
Alpha?
2.7% 4.4% 5.2%0.7%
3.7%5.6%
1.7%
‐5.6%‐10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
Perc
Baby BoomersMillennials
‐12.8%‐20.0%
11/18/2011 4
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2011.
Population Change by Age Cohort
43.0%
50.0%
State of Ingenuity Region
21.9%
36.8%
30.0%
40.0%
to 204
0
Generation Z
8.1%5.0%
2.9%5.6%
11.1% 11.1%
4.7%1.2%
5.0%7.3%
9.6%11.4%
2.8%
10.0%
20.0%
cent Cha
nge 20
30t
Baby Bust
Generation Z
1.2%
‐10.3%
‐2.6%
‐10.0%
0.0%Perc
Baby BoomersMillennialsGeneration Alpha?
‐20.0%
11/18/2011 5
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2011.
Unemployment RateState of Ingenuity Region
16.0State of Ingenuity Region
U S
12.0
14.0U.S.
ssio
n
on ion
8.0
10.0
Rec
e
Rec
essi
Rec
essi
4.0
6.0
0.0
2.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1990-2011.* Year by month.
11/18/2011 6
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
201
20
Employment Trends by Industry SectorState of Ingenuity Region
50.0Manufacturing
men
t
40.0
gServicesGovernment
Tota
l Em
ploy
m
30.0
Perc
ent o
f T
10.0
20.0
0.0Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1990-2010.
11/18/2011 7
Per Capita Wage GrowthState of Ingenuity Region
State of Ingenuity R i
United StatesPercent Change (2001 2009)Industry Cluster Region (2001‐2009)
2001 2009 2001 2009 Region U.S.
Agribusiness, Food Processing & Technology $35,614 $43,410 $29,369 $36,577 21.9 24.5
Bi di l/Bi t h i l (Lif S i ) $32 778 $47 618 $40 670 $52 802 45 3 29 8Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences) $32,778 $47,618 $40,670 $52,802 45.3 29.8
Business & Financial Services $37,930 $49,123 $63,750 $79,518 29.5 24.7
Defense & Security $31,370 $40,487 $51,609 $65,011 29.1 26.0
Education & Knowledge Creation $31,279 $39,048 $33,755 $43,098 24.8 27.7Education & Knowledge Creation $31,279 $39,048 $33,755 $43,098 24.8 27.7
Energy (Fossil & Renewable) $34,703 $42,314 $49,601 $66,403 21.9 33.9
Information Technology & Telecommunications $40,561 $50,831 $64,050 $80,444 25.3 25.6
Transportation & Logistics $30,150 $35,631 $38,066 $45,128 18.2 18.6
Manufacturing Supercluster $45,567 $56,089 $48,912 $62,141 23.1 27.0
Printing & Publishing $31,349 $40,219 $50,204 $62,087 28.3 23.7
Total All Industries $31,788 $37,752 $36,219 $45,559 18.8 25.8
11/18/2011 8
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
U.S. Industry Employment & OutputPercent Change, 1998‐2008
Other servicesReligious, grantmaking, civic, professional organizatons Output
Employment
Education servicesHealth care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreationAccomodation and food services
Other services Employment
Finance and insuranceReal estate, rental, and leasing
Professional, scientific, and technical servicesManagement of companies and enterprises
Administrative, support, waste management and remediation
Wholesale tradeRetail trade
Transportation and warehousingInformation
Finance and insurance
MiningUtilities
ConstructionManufacturing
-50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0
11/18/2011 9
Source: Employment Projections Program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2011.
U.S. Industry Employment & Output ForecastPercent Change, 2008‐2018
Religious, grantmaking, civic, professional organizatons Output
Education servicesHealth care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreationAccomodation and food services
Other services Employment
Fi d iReal estate, rental, and leasing
Professional, scientific, and technical servicesManagement of companies and enterprises
Administrative, support, waste management and remediation
Wholesale tradeRetail trade
Transportation and warehousingInformation
Finance and insurance
MiningUtilities
ConstructionManufacturing
-50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0
11/18/2011 10
Source: Employment Projections Program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2011.
U.S. Industry TrendsForecasted Annual Rate of Change, 2008‐2018
Industry DescriptionPct. Of Total Emp. (2008)
Employment Wages OutputSOI Region U.S.
Mining 0.1 0.6 -1.6 0.4 -0.2
Utilities 0.6 0.4 -1.1 0.9 0.9
Construction 5.3 7.7 1.7 1.4 2.9
Manufacturing 16.8 9.5 -0.9 -0.2 2.1
Wholesale trade 4.1 4.3 0.4 0.8 5.3
Retail trade 11.7 12.7 0.4 1.0 4.2
Transportation and warehousing 3.3 3.8 0.9 1.1 2.9
Information 1.2 2.4 0.4 1.0 5.4
Finance and insurance 3.4 5.6 0.5 1.1 9.3
Real estate, rental, and leasing 3.2 5.2 1.1 2.0 2.5
Professional, scientific, and technical services 3.5 7.9 3.0 2.1 3.2
Management of companies and enterprises 0.4 1.3 0.5 1.3 4.3
Ad i i t ti t t t d di ti 6 7 7 2 1 6 1 7 3 5Administrative, support, waste management and remediation 6.7 7.2 1.6 1.7 3.5
Education services 1.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.7
Health care and social assistance 11.8 11.8 2.3 2.0 3.6
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 2.0 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.9
Accommodation and food services 7 1 8 0 0 7 1 6 1 6Accommodation and food services 7.1 8.0 0.7 1.6 1.6
Other services 6.2 6.8 1.2 1.8 1.5
Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2011.
11/18/2011 11
Gross Regional ProductState of Ingenuity Region
$40,000,000,000
Actual
$35,000,000,000
Forecast
$30,000,000,000
$25,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
010
011
012
013
014
015
016
017
018
019
020
11/18/2011 12
Note: Figures are in constant (2005) dollars.Data Sources: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2011.
Industrial & Occupational ClustersIndustrial & Occupational Clusters
11/18/2011 13
Industry Concentrations
0.60
State of Ingenuity Region
Employment Change2001‐2009
0.40
Glass & Ceramics
Business & 2009
)
10.0% or more
5.0% to 9.9%
0.1% to 4.9%
No Change
0 1% t 4 9%e In
crease
2001‐2009
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Visitor Industries
0.20 Education & Knowledge Creation
Financial Services
Forest & Wood Products
Transportation & Logistics
b d h l
Defense & Security
in L
.Q. (
2001
-2 ‐0.1% to ‐4.9%
‐5.0% to ‐9.9%
‐10.0% or moreDecrease
Mi i
0 20
0.00
Advanced Materials
Chemicals & Chemical‐based ProductsPrinting & Publishing
Agribusiness , Food Processing & Technology
Information Technology & Telecommunications
Cha
nge
i Mining
Apparel & Textiles
Manufacturing Supercluster
‐0.40
‐0.20Energy (Fossil & Renewable)
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
Supe c uste
Biomedical/Biotechnical
11/18/2011 14
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00Location Quotient (2009)
Manufacturing Concentrations
0.40
State of Ingenuity Region
0 00
0.20
Computer & Electronic Product Mfg.
9)
-0.20
0.00
Primary Metals Mfg.
Electrical Equipment, Appliance & Component Mfg.
F b i d M lL.Q
. (20
01-2
009
Employment Change
-0.40
Transportation Equipment Mfg.
Machinery Mfg.
Fabricated Metal Products Mfg.
Cha
nge
in L
10.0% or more
5.0% to 9.9%
0.1% to 4.9%
No Change In
crease
Employment Change2001‐2009
-0.80
-0.60
0 00 1 00 2 00 3 00 4 00 5 00 6 00
q p g
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
No Change
‐0.1% to ‐4.9%
‐5.0% to ‐9.9%
‐10.0% or moreDecrease
11/18/2011 15
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
Location Quotient (2009)
Industry Employment ConcentrationsState of Ingenuity Region
Industry Cluster DescriptionLocation Quotient
2001 2009 Change (2001‐2009)Advanced Materials 1.18 1.08 ‐0.10Agribusiness, Food Processing & Technology 1.01 1.04 0.03Apparel & Textiles 0.26 0.26 ‐0.01Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Visitor Industries 0.53 0.59 0.06Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences) 0.81 0.73 ‐0.08Business & Financial Services 0.39 0.37 ‐0.03Chemicals & Chemical Based Products 1 55 1 32 0 22Chemicals & Chemical Based Products 1.55 1.32 ‐0.22Defense & Security 0.25 0.29 0.04Education & Knowledge Creation 0.55 0.74 0.19Energy (Fossil & Renewable) 0.46 0.40 ‐0.06Forest & Wood Products 0.75 0.91 0.15Glass & Ceramics 1.07 1.57 0.50Glass & Ceramics 1.07 1.57 0.50Information Technology & Telecommunications 0.36 0.27 ‐0.09Transportation & Logistics 0.81 1.00 0.19Manufacturing Supercluster 2.76 2.58 ‐0.18Primary Metal Mfg 1.61 1.37 ‐0.24Fabricated Metal Product Mfg 3.62 3.29 ‐0.33gMachinery Mfg 5.42 5.05 ‐0.36Computer & Electronic Product Mfg 0.66 0.75 0.10Electrical Equipment, Appliance & Component Mfg 3.22 3.12 ‐0.10Transportation Equipment Mfg 2.28 1.77 ‐0.51
Mining 0.17 0.21 0.03Printing & Publishing 0.63 0.59 ‐0.04
11/18/2011 16
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
Components of Industry Growth State of Ingenuity Region
Industry Cluster DescriptionNational Job Growth
ComponentIndustry Job Growth
ComponentCompetitive Job
Growth ComponentAdvanced Materials ‐168 ‐4,546 ‐6,952, ,Agribusiness, Food Processing & Technology ‐78 ‐414 ‐748Apparel & Textiles ‐10 ‐526 ‐596Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Visitor Industries ‐64 16 365Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences) ‐74 1,999 143Business & Financial Services ‐103 297 ‐1,471Chemicals & Chemical Based Products ‐96 ‐2,673 ‐4,568Defense & Security ‐39 19 460Education & Knowledge Creation ‐151 2,065 7,436Energy (Fossil & Renewable) ‐84 ‐228 ‐2,161Forest & Wood Products ‐52 ‐1,822 ‐1,261Gl & C i 16 567 42Glass & Ceramics ‐16 ‐567 ‐42Information Technology & Telecommunications ‐62 ‐1,341 ‐3,243Transportation & Logistics ‐74 ‐439 922Manufacturing Supercluster ‐512 ‐18,223 ‐24,134Primary Metal Mfg ‐22 ‐965 ‐1,326Fabricated Metal Product Mfg ‐143 ‐3,827 ‐5,968Fabricated Metal Product Mfg 143 3,827 5,968Machinery Mfg ‐174 ‐5,296 ‐7,443Computer & Electronic Product Mfg ‐27 ‐1,172 ‐1,023Electrical Equipment, Appliance & Component Mfg ‐42 ‐1,686 ‐2,033Transportation Equipment Mfg ‐105 ‐3,749 ‐6,336
Mining ‐1 ‐5 6Printing & Publishing ‐43 ‐1,021 ‐1,582
11/18/2011 17
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
Industry Wage ConcentrationsState of Ingenuity Region
Industry Cluster DescriptionLocation Quotient
2001 2009 Change (2001‐2009)Advanced Materials 1.24 0.88 ‐0.36Agribusiness, Food Processing & Technology 1.39 1.49 0.10Apparel & Textiles 0.31 0.29 ‐0.02Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Visitor Industries 0.35 0.38 0.03Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences) 0.74 0.79 0.05Business & Financial Services 0.27 0.27 0.00Chemicals & Chemical Based Products 1 95 1 23 ‐0 72Chemicals & Chemical Based Products 1.95 1.23 ‐0.72Defense & Security 0.17 0.22 0.05Education & Knowledge Creation 0.58 0.80 0.22Energy (Fossil & Renewable) 0.37 0.31 ‐0.06Forest & Wood Products 0.80 1.00 0.20Glass & Ceramics 1.12 1.58 0.46Information Technology & Telecommunications 0.26 0.21 ‐0.05Transportation & Logistics 0.73 0.95 0.22Manufacturing Supercluster 2.93 2.81 ‐0.12Primary Metal Mfg 1.57 1.41 ‐0.16Fabricated Metal Product Mfg 4.22 3.65 ‐0.57M hi Mf 6 71 6 55 0 16Machinery Mfg 6.71 6.55 ‐0.16Computer & Electronic Product Mfg 0.46 0.55 0.09Electrical Equipment, Appliance & Component Mfg 3.41 3.44 0.03Transportation Equipment Mfg 2.84 2.43 ‐0.41
Mining 0.23 0.32 0.09Printing & Publishing 0.45 0.46 0.01Printing & Publishing 0.45 0.46 0.01
11/18/2011 18
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
Industry Employment ConcentrationsState of Ingenuity Region
• The region has enjoyed (and continues to enjoy) strong employment concentrations in manufacturing related industry clusters. However, that dominance is declining due in part to local competitive factors, as well as national and industry related factors.p , y
• The Transportation and Logistics cluster, though relatively small in terms of regional employment, has experienced positive growth. Th l i t th t h f thi th i b d l lThe analysis suggests that much of this growth is based on local competitive advantages.
• Several other clusters (Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Visitor Se e a ot e c uste s ( ts, te ta e t, ec eat o a d s toindustries, Biomedical/Biotechnical, and Defense and Security) could emerge as future sources of regional employment growth.
11/18/2011 19
Occupational Employment Concentrations
0.10
State of Ingenuity Region
M h i S i i
Natural Sciences and Environmental Management
Managerial, Sales, Marketing and Human Resources
Crop and Livestock Workers Health Care and Medical Science
0.00
Job Zone 1
Technology‐Based Knowledge Clusters
Information Technology
-200
9)
Mathematics, Statistics, Data and Accounting
Job Zone 2
Public Safety and
-0.10
Post‐Secondary Education & Knowledge Creation
Legal and Financial Services, and Real Estate
e in
L.Q
. (20
01-
Arts, Entertainment, Publishing & Broadcasting
Domestic Security
Personal Services Occupations
Primary/Secondary and Vocational Education,
Remediation & Social Services
-0.20Building, Landscape and
Skilled Production Workers
Cha
nge
10.0% or more
5.0% to 9.9%
0.1% to 4.9%
Increase
Employment Change2001‐2009
Engineering and Related Sciences
-0.300 40 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 80 0 90 1 00 1 10 1 20 1 30
Construction Design
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
No Change
‐0.1% to ‐4.9%
‐5.0% to ‐9.9%
‐10.0% or moreDecrease
0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30
Location Quotient (2009)
11/18/2011 20
Occupational Employment ConcentrationsState of Ingenuity Region
Occupational Cluster DescriptionLocation Quotient
2001 2009 Change (2001-2009)Managerial Sales Marketing and HR 0 77 0 81 0 04Managerial, Sales, Marketing and HR 0.77 0.81 0.04Skilled Production Workers: Technicians, Operators, Trades, Installers & Repairers 1.29 1.19 -0.10
Health Care and Medical Science (Aggregate) 0.94 0.98 0.04Health Care and Medical Science (Medical Practitioners and Scientists) 0.74 0.84 0.10Health Care and Medical Science (Medical Technicians) 1.01 0.99 -0.02Health Care and Medical Science (Therapy, Counseling and Rehabilitation ) 0.99 1.04 0.05
Mathematics, Statistics, Data and Accounting 0.68 0.68 0.00Legal and Financial Services, and Real Estate 0.83 0.80 -0.03Information Technology (IT) 0.47 0.48 0.01Natural Sciences and Environmental Management 0.40 0.42 0.02Crop and Livestock Workers 0.78 0.84 0.06Primary/Secondary and Vocational Education, Remediation & Social Services 1.13 1.19 0.06Building, Landscape and Construction Design 0.87 0.65 -0.22Engineering and Related Sciences 0.82 0.68 -0.14Personal Services Occupations 1.14 1.09 -0.05Arts, Entertainment, Publishing and Broadcasting 0.80 0.85 0.05Public Safety and Domestic Security 0.89 0.90 0.01Postsecondary Education and Knowledge Creation 0.77 0.72 -0.05Job Zone 2 1.12 1.12 0.00Job Zone 1 1.01 1.04 0.03Technology-Based Knowledge Clusters 0.65 0.65 0.00
11/18/2011 21
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
Occupational Employment Growth Components S f I i R iState of Ingenuity Region
Industry Name National Job Growth Component
Industry Job Growth Component
Competitive Job Growth Component
Managerial, Sales, Marketing and HR 1,611 1,900 1,579Skill d P d ti W k T h i i O t T d I t ll &Skilled Production Workers: Technicians, Operators, Trades, Installers & Repairers 2,475 -3,498 -10,173
Health Care and Medical Science (Aggregate) 1,188 2,687 2,178Health Care and Medical Science (Medical Practitioners and Scientists) 219 425 708
Health Care and Medical Science (Medical Technicians) 252 761 312Health Care and Medical Science (Therapy, Counseling & Rehabilitation) 716 1,527 1,162
Mathematics, Statistics, Data and Accounting 419 68 -553Legal and Financial Services, and Real Estate 1,619 2,019 -1,311Information Technology (IT) 243 -100 -329Natural Sciences and Environmental Management 44 37 20gCrop and Livestock Workers 317 -405 -400Primary/Secondary and Vocational Education, Remediation & Social Services 1,434 1,771 1,269
Building, Landscape and Construction Design 110 -129 -757Engineering and Related Sciences 230 -409 -1,361P l S i O ti 530 2 549 1 125Personal Services Occupations 530 2,549 1,125Arts, Entertainment, Publishing and Broadcasting 397 583 500Public Safety and Domestic Security 250 344 66Postsecondary Education and Knowledge Creation 222 139 -422Job Zone 2 9,899 -9,851 -21,214Job Zone 1 3,884 -3,318 -6,647Technology-Based Knowledge Clusters 1,378 155 -1,938
11/18/2011 22
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Purdue Center for Regional Development (cluster definitions), 2011.
Occupational Employment ConcentrationsState of Ingenuity Region
• As the manufacturing employment has receded, so has the number of those employed in skilled production occupations.
• The region’s healthcare occupational clusters have enjoyed strong job growth in the past decade due in part to local competitivejob growth in the past decade, due in part to local competitive factors.
• The Personal Services and the Primary/Secondary and Vocational y/ yEducation, Remediation & Social Services clusters have also shown growth potential base on local competitive advantages.
Th T h l B d K l d Cl t h th t ti l• The Technology‐Based Knowledge Cluster has growth potential, based on national and industry wide growth trends, but is declining in the region because of local competitive factors.
11/18/2011 23
Business Vitality & Access to CapitalBusiness Vitality & Access to Capital
11/18/2011 24
Trends in Business EstablishmentsState of Ingenuity Region, 2006‐2008
Type of Business Net Opened2
Net Expanded3
Net Moved In4
Stage /Sector Movement5
Net New6
p p
Total 8,274 1,782 20 ‐1,616 8,460
Noncommercial 198 154 1 ‐149 204
Nonresident1 ‐225 ‐10 0 99 ‐136Nonresident 225 10 0 99 136
Resident1 8,301 1,638 19 ‐1,566 8,392
Self Employed (1) 4,508 1,423 ‐13 ‐2,217 3,701
Stage 1 (2 to 9 employees) 3 973 251 18 500 4 742Stage 1 (2 to 9 employees) 3,973 251 18 500 4,742
Stage 2 (10 to 99 employees) ‐169 ‐35 19 150 ‐35
Stage 3 (100 to 499 employees) ‐9 2 ‐3 0 ‐10
Stage 4 (500+ employees) ‐2 ‐3 ‐2 1 ‐6Stage 4 (500+ employees) 2 3 2 1 6
1 Resident businesses are either stand-alone in area or headquartered in same state; non-resident businesses are headquartered in a different state.2 The “Net Opened” column is the difference in the number of businesses “Opened” and the number of businesses “Closed”.3 The “Net Expanded” column is the difference in the number of businesses “Expanded” and the number businesses “Contracted”.4 The “Net Moved In” column is the difference in the number of businesses “Moved In” and the number of jobs lost in businesses “Moved Out”.5 The “Stage/Sector Movement” column is the difference in the number of businesses that moved between Resident business stages or between Resident,
N R id t N i l t
11/18/2011 25
Non-Resident, or Noncommercial sectors.6 The “Net Expanded” column is the difference in the number of businesses “Expanded” and the number of businesses “Contracted”.
Data Source: National Establishment Time‐Series (NETS) database, 2010.
Trends in Business EmploymentState of Ingenuity Region, 2006‐2008
Type of Business Net Opened2
Net Expanded3
Net Moved In4
Stage /Sector Movement5
Net New6
p p
Total ‐16,816 3,637 ‐2,753 3,039 ‐12,893
Noncommercial ‐2,178 1,313 ‐14 660 ‐219
Nonresident* ‐22 056 802 ‐882 3 948 ‐18 188Nonresident 22,056 802 882 3,948 18,188
Resident* 7,418 1,522 ‐1,857 ‐1,569 5,514
Self Employed (1) 4,508 2,640 ‐13 ‐3,434 3,701
Stage 1 (2 to 9 employees) 7 853 3 618 81 ‐840 10 712Stage 1 (2 to 9 employees) 7,853 3,618 81 840 10,712
Stage 2 (10 to 99 employees) ‐3,397 75 475 1,931 ‐916
Stage 3 (100 to 499 employees) ‐1,642 ‐639 ‐700 545 ‐2,436
Stage 4 (500+ employees) 96 ‐4 172 ‐1 700 229 ‐5 547Stage 4 (500+ employees) 96 4,172 1,700 229 5,547
1 Resident businesses are either stand-alone in area or headquartered in same state; non-resident businesses are headquartered in a different state.2 The “Net Opened” column is the difference in the number of jobs gained in businesses “Opened” and the number of jobs lost in businesses “Closed”.3 The “Net Expanded” column is the difference in the number of jobs gained in businesses “Expanded” and the number of jobs lost in businesses “Contracted”.4 The “Net Moved In” column is the difference in the number of jobs gained in businesses “Moved In” and the number of jobs lost in businesses “Moved Out”.5 The “Stage/Sector Movement” column is the difference in the number of jobs gained and lost in businesses that moved between Resident business stages or
b t R id t N R id t N i l t
11/18/2011 26
between Resident, Non-Resident, or Noncommercial sectors.6 The “Net Expanded” column is the difference in the number of jobs gained in businesses “Expanded” and the number of jobs lost in businesses “Contracted”.
Data Source: National Establishment Time‐Series (NETS) database, 2010.
Business Vitality IndicatorsState of Ingenuity Region
Industry SectorStartup Activity
(%)Firm Failure
(%)Small Business il (%)
Industry Sector(%) Rates (%) Failure Rates (%)
Agriculture 3.7 6.8 6.8
Mining 5.2 10.1 8.8
Construction 8.7 9.2 9.3
Manufacturing 3.6 5.9 6.3
Transportation, Communications, Utilities 9.5 9.4 9.7p , ,
Wholesale 6.5 5.5 5.9
Retail 6.4 9.7 8.4
Fi I R l E t t 10 9 7 2 7 3Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 10.9 7.2 7.3
Services 6.6 9.8 9.7
Total 6.9 8.7 8.6
11/18/2011 27
Data Source: BizMiner.com, Local Business Vitality Indicators for the period January 2008 ‐ December 2008.
Small Business Lending & Capital AccessNational Trends (2003‐2010)
• Small business lending in the U.S. peaked in 2008 when depository institutions in the held more than $711 billion in small business loans.
• From 2008 to 2010 small business lending declined by 8 3 percentFrom 2008 to 2010, small business lending declined by 8.3 percent to $652 billion. In 2009‐2010, lenders reduced their small loan portfolio by $43 billion.
• Large lenders (those with $10 billion or more in assets) which hold• Large lenders (those with $10 billion or more in assets), which hold about 48 percent of all small business loans, were responsible for more than 55 percent of the decline.
• The market for small business loans has become more concentrated with large lenders holding 48 percent of small business loans in 2010, up from 44 percent in 2003.
11/18/2011 28
Small Business Lending & Capital AccessNational Trends (2003‐2010)
The causes of the downturn in the value of loans held by lenders are if ld Th i l d b t t li it d t th f ll imanifold. They include, but are not limited to, the following:
• The decline in housing prices; decreasing the value of important collateral for many small business borrowers and subsequently reducing the amount of money
il bl f h l davailable from the lender.
• The lack of demand for the products or services sold by small businesses; consequently, growth plans have also slowed. In a slowing economy, prudent business owners seek to limit their risk exposure by reducing loan balances andbusiness owners seek to limit their risk exposure by reducing loan balances and avoiding debt.
• Regulators are monitoring lending activity more closely and are more quick to classify loans as nonperforming than they were previously.
• In the new regulatory environment, smaller lenders are likely to be less profitable because they have fewer sales of products and services to spread out over the higher auditing and FDIC costs. Hence, they have less money to lend to small b i d thbusinesses and others.
11/18/2011 29
Small Business Lending & Capital AccessRegional Trends (2003‐2010)
• Aggregate lending for community lenders in SBA Region 5* declined b 6 3 t f 2009 t 2010by 6.3 percent from 2009 to 2010.
• The number of small business loans decreased by about 105,000, or nearly 14 percent.
• Lenders with assets of $100 million to $500 million experienced a 17.2 percent drop in the number of small business loans. This accounted for more than half of the total decline in small businessaccounted for more than half of the total decline in small business loans.
• The mean loan value decreased by less than 1 percent for small business loansbusiness loans.
• The total assets ratio (small business loans to total assets) declined by over 4 percent.
11/18/2011 30
*SBA Region 5 includes Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).
Aggregate Value of Small Business Loans*Community lenders with less than $10 billion in total assets
35,000
25,000
30,000
rs Less than $100 million
15,000
20,000
lions
of D
olla
r
$100 million to $499.9 million
$500 million to $999.9 million
$1 billion to $9.9 billion
5,000
10,000
Mill
0
,
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
*SBA Region 5 includes Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.Data Source: FDIC Statistics on Depository Lenders (http://www2.fdic.gov/sdi/main.asp)
11/18/2011 31
Aggregate Number of Small Business Loans*Community lenders with less than $10 billion in total assets
600Less than $100 million
400
500
ans
$100 million to $499.9 million
$500 million to $999.9 million
$1 billion to $9.9 billion
300
usan
ds o
f Loa
100
200Thou
02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
*SBA Region 5 includes Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.Data Source: FDIC Statistics on Depository Lenders (http://www2.fdic.gov/sdi/main.asp)
11/18/2011 32
Mean Value of Small Business Loans*Community lenders with less than $10 billion in total assets
180Less than $100 million
140
160
olla
rs
$100 million to $499.9 million
$500 million to $999.9 million
$1 billion to $9.9 billion
120
ousa
nds
of D
o
80
100Tho
602003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
*SBA Region 5 includes Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.Data Source: FDIC Statistics on Depository Lenders (http://www2.fdic.gov/sdi/main.asp)
11/18/2011 33
Ratio of Small Business Loans to Total Assets*Community lenders with less than $10 billion in total assets
0.200
0.175
o To
tal A
sset
s
0 125
0.150
ness
Loa
ns to
0.100
0.125
io S
mal
l Bus
in
Less than $100 million
$100 million to $499.9 million
0.0752003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Rat
i
$500 million to $999.9 million
$1 billion to $9.9 billion
*SBA Region 5 includes Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.Data Source: FDIC Statistics on Depository Lenders (http://www2.fdic.gov/sdi/main.asp)
11/18/2011 34
Ratio of Small Business Loans to All Business Loans*Community lenders with less than $10 billion in total assets
1.000
s
0.800
o A
ll B
usin
ess
0 400
0.600
ines
s Lo
ans
toLo
ans
0.200
0.400
of S
mal
l Bus
i
Less than $100 million
$100 million to $499.9 million
$500 million to $999 9 million
0.0002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Rat
io $500 million to $999.9 million
$1 billion to $9.9 billion
*SBA Region 5 includes Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).Data Source: FDIC Statistics on Depository Lenders (http://www2.fdic.gov/sdi/main.asp)
11/18/2011 35
SBA 7a Program: Number of LoansState of Ingenuity Region
100Boone County
9080
Winnebago County
Kenosha County
Racine County
Rock County
56
4751
60Walworth County
47
2624 26 2833
2930 3236
20
40
9 8 4 7
2420 20
10 11
19
4 80
20
2008 2009 2010 20112008 2009 2010 2011
Data Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 2011.
11/18/2011 36
SBA 7a Program: Aggregate Amount of Loans State of Ingenuity Region
$30,000,000Boone County
$27,261,800
$25,000,000Winnebago County
Kenosha County
Racine County
Rock County0
$
$17,07
$15,000,000
$20,000,000Rock County
Walworth County
$ $
$8,9
$11,186,5 $$ $
$9,31 $
$14,509,000
$ $ $$ $
$12,794,900$ $
72,100
$
$10,000,000
$601,000
$749,200
$2,567,200
$4,590,300
39,600
500
7,341,500
$2,615,500
$4,310,500
16,500
$5,475,500
$4,310,500
$3,788,900
$6,772,000
$1,773,300
$6,747,000
0
$594,400
$2,615,500
$7,049,400
$7,207,500
$0
$5,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011Data Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 2011.
11/18/2011 37
SBA 504 Program: Number of LoansState of Ingenuity Region
16Boone County
13
15
12
14 Winnebago County
Kenosha County
Racine County
Rock County
88
10Walworth County
54
67
54
6
1 0 0 0
4
12 2
0
3
01
32 2
3
10
2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Data Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 2011.
11/18/2011 38
SBA 504 Program: Aggregate Amount of Loans State of Ingenuity Region
$10,000,000Boone County
$8,412,0
$8,000,000
Winnebago County
Kenosha County
Racine County
Rock County000
$5
$6,000,000
Rock County
Walworth County
$4,359,000
$3,717,0
$3,871,00
$3,1
5,068,000
$4,633,000$4,000,000
$1,025,000 $0 $0 $0
$2,143,000
000 $1,901,000
$215,000
$2,135,000
0015,000
$1,989,000 $0
$516,000
$1,995,000
$1,064,000
$250,700
$998,000
$418,000
$0
$2,000,000
$2008 2009 2010 2011
Data Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 2011.
11/18/2011 39
Innovation Index
11/18/2011 40
Innovation IndexOverview
The Innovation Index takes a broad look at indicators related to innovation from both the input and output perspectives.
The Index consists of four components.
• Human Capital: 30%Human Capital: 30%
• Economic Dynamics: 30%
• Productivity and Employment: 30%y p y
• Economic Well‐Being: 10%
11/18/2011 41
Innovation IndexOverview
Based on statistical analysis, several factors appear to be y , ppespecially important for increasing economic growth:
Ed ti l tt i t• Educational attainment
• Young‐adult population growth
• High‐tech employment growthHigh tech employment growth
• The number of small establishments
11/18/2011 42
Innovation IndexState of Ingenuity Region
88 5Total Innovation IndexU.S. Average = 100.0
79.7
88.5
Human Capital
Total Innovation Index
77.1Economic Dynamics
107.5Productivity and Employment
92.5
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
Economic Well‐Being
Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), the Indiana Business Research Center and the Purdue Center for Regional Development ,2011.
11/18/2011 43
Innovation IndexState of Ingenuity Region
Human Capital
RACINE
Human capital inputs are those characteristics that describe the ability of the population and labor force
KENOSHA87.0
ROCK87.4
WALWORTH83.6
97.1 to innovate.
“High Tech” Employment
Population Age 25-64 with Some College or AA Degree
WINNEBAGO84.7 BOONE
80.3
Some College or AA Degree
Population Age 25-64 with Baccalaureate Degree -20%
Young Adult Population
NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.
Young Adult Population
Population Growth
Tech-Based Occupations
NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.Data Source: Mapping Innovation Tool, StatsAmerica.org, 2011.
11/18/2011 44
Human Capital IndexState of Ingenuity Region
Human capital inputs areHuman capital inputs are those characteristics that describe the ability of the population and labor force to innovate.RACINE
“High Tech” Employment
Population Age 25-64 with Some College or AA Degree
KENOSHA88.8
ROCK74.5
WALWORTH80.7
79.3
Population Age 25-64 with Baccalaureate Degree -20%
Young Adult Population
WINNEBAGO78.7 BOONE
72.7
Population Growth
Tech-Based Occupations
NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.
11/18/2011 45
NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.Data Source: Mapping Innovation Tool, StatsAmerica.org, 2011.
Economic Dynamics IndexState of Ingenuity Region
This component measuresThis component measures local resources available to county entrepreneurs and businesses that encourage innovation RACINEclose to home.
Venture Capital Investment
Average Establishment Churn
KENOSHA79.2
ROCK75.6
WALWORTH78.5
84.3
Churn
Broadband Connections
Change in Broadband Density
WINNEBAGO79.0 BOONE
79.1
NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.
Large Establishments Per Capita
Small Establishments Per CapitaNOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.
Data Source: Mapping Innovation Tool, StatsAmerica.org, 2011.p
11/18/2011 46
Productivity & Employment IndexState of Ingenuity Region
This component measuresThis component measures local resources available to county entrepreneurs and businesses that encourage innovation RACINEclose to home.
Job Growth to Population Growth
Change in “High Tech”
KENOSHA90.1
ROCK81.3
WALWORTH87.2
128.6
Change in High Tech Employment Share
Average Patents (per 1,000 workers)
GDP W k
WINNEBAGO94.7 BOONE
86.0
NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.
GDP per Worker
Average Annual Rate of Change (per worker)
NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.Data Source: Mapping Innovation Tool, StatsAmerica.org, 2011.
11/18/2011 47
Economic Well‐Being IndexState of Ingenuity Region
Innovative economies improve economic well-being for residents because they earn more and have in increasing standard of living
RACINEstandard of living.
Average Poverty Rate
Average Unemployment Rate
KENOSHA95.4
ROCK89.8
WALWORTH96.7
94.8
Average Net Internal Migration
Change Per Capita Personal Income
WINNEBAGO90.0 BOONE
89.8
NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.
Income
Change in Wage/Salary Compensation (per worker)
Change in Proprietor Income(per proprietor)NOTE: Darker colors indicate higher index values.
Data Source: Mapping Innovation Tool, StatsAmerica.org, 2011.(per proprietor)
11/18/2011 48
For Further InformationFor Further InformationContact:
Norman Walzer Brian HargerSenior Research Scholar Research [email protected] [email protected]
Center for Governmental StudiesNorthern Illinois University
De Kalb, IL 60115815‐753‐1907