Download - Sqz Ob 12th May
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Serica Energy plc – OilBarrel Conference May 12 2009
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DISCLAIMER
● The information presented herein is subject to amendment and has not been independently verified. Serica does not represent that the information and opinions contained herein are necessarily adequate or accurate and no liability is accepted for any errors or omissions.
● This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are based upon Serica’s internal projections, expectations or beliefs concerning such matters as the company’s future operational and financial performance
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future operational and financial performance
● Such forward-looking statements are subject to risk and uncertainty which may result in Serica’s actual performance being materially different to that projected
● A full account of such risks was presented in the December 2005 Serica Placing and Admission to AIM document and is also discussed in the Annual Information Form filed with the TSX-V each year
Cover photograph: Kambuna topsides installation on 10th March 2009
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KEY INFORMATION
● UK based independent E&P company
● Core areas: Western Europe and South East Asia
● Listed on UK AIM and Canada TSX-Ventures markets (SQZ)
● Shares in issue 176,518,310
● Market capitalisation c. US$160 million (8.05.09)
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● 1.4.09 cash was US$38 million, debt US$45 million, net debt US$7 million
● Net 2P Reserves of 28.5 million boe
● First production in mid 2009 from Kambuna field (Serica 50%)
● Filed Columbus field development plan October 2008 (Serica 50%)
● High impact drilling offshore Ireland at Bandon prospect (Serica 50%)
● High impact exploration planned at Conan (East Irish Sea) (Serica 100%)
● 2009 drilling at Bandon, Conan and Vietnam will be at little cost to Serica
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BOARD OF DIRECTORS
● Chairman Tony Craven Walker(BP, Charterhouse, Monument)
● Chief Executive Paul Ellis(BP, Charterhouse, BG, PanCanadian, Emerald)
● Chief Financial Officer Chris Hearne(Intrepid Energy, Lehman Bros, Robert Fleming)
● Chief Operating Officer Peter Sadler
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● Chief Operating Officer Peter Sadler(Fletcher Challenge, Novus, Indago, RAK)
● Non-Executive Director Neil Pike(Citibank)
● Non-Executive Director Ian Vann(BP)
● Non-Executive Director Steven Theede(Conoco, Yukos)
● Non-Executive Director Jonathan Cartwright(Peat Marwick, Transworld, Hanson, Caledonia)
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HIGHLIGHTS OF 2008 & 1Q 2009
Operational Highlights
● Proved & Probable Reserves increased by 48% to 28.5 mm boe
● Kambuna wells tested at combined 144 mmscfd and 8,000 bopd
● Columbus Field Development Programme filed
● Farm-outs concluded for Kutai, Chablis, Bandon & Vietnam
● Awarded offshore East Seruway PSC adjacent to Kambuna field
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● Awarded offshore East Seruway PSC adjacent to Kambuna field
● Awarded three UK Offshore Licences in 25th Round 2008
Financial Highlights
● Raised US$49 million net through a placing
● Sold a 15% stake in the Kambuna field in July for US$53 million
● Raised approx. US$70 million through farmouts
● Extended US$100 million Senior Debt Facility to November 2009
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AIM SHARE PRICE – LAST 3 MONTHS
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Gambler’s Ruin:
The fact that in any game of chance one will eventually go broke simply through a normal run of bad luck
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An exploration question:
In an area where the statistical chance of exploration success is 10%, how many wells must be drilled to ensure that there is only a 10% risk of total failure?
(Total failure = all wells drilled are dry holes)
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Chance of Total Failure (COF) with anExploration Chance of Success of 10%
Wells Drilled COF
Wells Drilled COF
Wells Drilled COF
1 90%
2 81%
3 73%
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3 73%
4 66%
5 59%
6 53%
7 48%
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Chance of Total Failure (COF) with anExploration Chance of Success of 10%
Wells Drilled COF
Wells Drilled COF
Wells Drilled COF
1 90% 9 39%
2 81% 10 35%
3 73% 11 31%
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3 73% 11 31%
4 66% 12 28%
5 59% 13 25%
6 53% 14 23%
7 48% 15 21%
8 43% 16 19%
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Chance of Total Failure (COF) with anExploration Chance of Success of 10%
Wells Drilled COF
Wells Drilled COF
Wells Drilled COF
1 90% 9 39% 17 17%
2 81% 10 35% 18 15%
3 73% 11 31% 19 14%
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3 73% 11 31% 19 14%
4 66% 12 28% 20 12%
5 59% 13 25% 21 11%
6 53% 14 23% 22 10%
7 48% 15 21%
8 43% 16 19%
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Wells Required for a Chance of Total Failure (COF) of 10%For a range of Chances of Success
Chance of Success Number of Wells
10% 22
11
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Wells Required for a Chance of Total Failure (COF) of 10%For a range of Chances of Success
Chance of Success Number of Wells
10% 22
12
20% 11
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Wells Required for a Chance of Total Failure (COF) of 10%For a range of Chances of Success
Chance of Success Number of Wells
10% 22
13
20% 11
30% 7
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Wells Required for a Chance of Total Failure (COF) of 10%For a range of Chances of Success
Chance of Success Number of Wells
10% 22
14
20% 11
30% 7
40% 5
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Wells Required for a Chance of Total Failure (COF) of 10%For a range of Chances of Success
Chance of Success Number of Wells
10% 22
15
20% 11
30% 7
40% 5
50% 4
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EXPLORATION RISK & GAMBLER’S RUIN
Ways to succeed in pure exploration
● Increase the Chance of Success
● Drill in areas with proven petroleum systems
● Focus on gas prospects (where a market exists)
● Use a variety of detailed 3D seismic analysis techniques
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● Identify large prospects with moderate risk
● Reduce cost exposure
● Acquire interests with existing seismic (3D if possible)
● Limit commitment wells to a minimum
● Secure promoted farmouts
Don’t fall in love with your own prospects!
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ASSET UPDATES
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MAIN PROJECTS 2009 – UK AND IRELAND
Columbus FDP approval
Conan Farm-out
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Bandon Exploration wellChablis Appraisal evaluation
UK 25th Round Awards : 15/21g,
48/16a (part) and 110/2d
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MAIN PROJECTS 2009 – SOUTH EAST ASIA
Kutai 2D & 3D Seismic Surveys
Vietnam 06/94 Tuong Vi
Exploration Well Farm-out Agreed
East Seruway
Planning Seismic Survey
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Kambuna Production scheduled
for mid-year
Kutai 2D & 3D Seismic Surveys
Interpretation
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SERICA NET RESERVES
2P Reserves (mmboe) Columbus Kambuna Total
On 1st January 2008 0 19.3 19.3
Disposals 0 (4.5) (4.5)
Additions & Revisions 8.9 4.8 13.7
On 31st December 2008 8.9 19.6 28.5
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● Serica 2P reserves increase by 48% over 2007
● Serica holds 50% interests in both fields
● Sale of a 15% interest in Kambuna in 2008 mitigated by increase in field reserves
● Submission of Columbus Field Development Programme in 2008 – 2P reserves now booked
Reserve Growth (mmboe) 2008 2007 2006
(1P) Proved 16 12.1 -
(2P) Proved + Probable 28.5 19.3 16.8
(3P) Proved + Probable + Possible 52.4 29.6 -
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SERICA RESERVES GROWTH
Reserves Growth: Gas (bcf)
105.1
17.96.7
38.7
77.6
20
40
60
80
100
120
Reserves Growth: Oil Equivalent (mmboe)
8.8525
30
+35%
+48%
21
0
Dec-07 Kambuna Sale Kambuna Field Size
Revision
Columbus
Reserves
Dec-08
Reserves Growth: Condensate (mmbbl)
8.2
1.50.9
2.4
6.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Dec-07 Kambuna Sale Kambuna Field Size
Revision
Columbus
Reserves
Dec-08
28.5
4.52.0
2.85
19.3
0
5
10
15
20
Dec-07 Kambuna
Sale
Kambuna
Field Size
Revision
Kambuna
Conv. Factor
Revision
Columbus
Reserves
Dec-08
+28%
The conversion factor for converting Kambuna gas reserves to barrels of oil equivalent has been changed from 6,000 cu ft/boe to 4,800 cu ft/boe, more accurately reflecting the high calorific value of the gas, 1240 BTU/cubic feet.
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KAMBUNA FIELD UPDATE (Serica 50%)
● Field Proved & Probable ReservesGas 132.8 bcf (2007 119.4 bcf)Oil 11.6 mm bbl (2007 9.9 mm bbl)Total 39.3 mm boe (2007 29.7 mm boe)
● First gas scheduled for mid 2009
● Terms for first 40 mmscfd agreed
● Gas price c. US$6/mcf + 3% p.a.Condensate near Brent price
● PSC terms and gas sales on long term
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● PSC terms and gas sales on long term contracts make Kambuna relatively insensitive to oil price
● Sold 15% stake to Salamander Energy valuing Serica’s retained 50% stake at that time at c. US$170mm
● Net Present Value of Serica’s 50% interest in Kambuna at 31.12.08 at a 10% discount factor is US$160mm at forecast prices post tax (RPS)
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COLUMBUS FIELD UPDATE (Serica 50%)
● Field Development Programme filed
● Reserves booked for first time
● Field Proved & Probable Reserves
Gas 77.4 bcf
Oil 4.76 mm bbl
Total 17.7 mm boe
● BG drilled 23/21-7 in December 2008
with four penetrations of Forties sand
and results under evaluation
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● Technical concepts used to discover
Columbus are now being used by
Serica to explore much larger
prospects in Ireland and the East Irish
Sea
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IRELAND - BANDON PROSPECT (Serica 50%)
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● Bandon exploration well spudded 11 May with Ocean Guardian rig
● World class petroleum system (Sherwood). Prospective gas in place of 230 – 1700 bcf
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IRELAND - BANDON PROSPECT (Serica 50%)
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● Triassic Sherwood sand prospect. Seismic anomaly (inset) may indicate gas
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EAST IRISH SEA – CONAN PROSPECT (Serica 100%)
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● Conan prospect farm-out programme ongoing. Rig available late 2009
● World class petroleum system (Sherwood) with prospective gas in place of 1,000 bcf
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INDONESIA – KUTAI PSC (Serica 54.6%)
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● Offshore 3D seismic acquired (Area 5) and 2D survey nearly complete (Area 1)
● Interpretation shows a variety of prospects. Farm-out programme in preparation
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INDONESIA - EAST SERUWAY PSC (Serica 100%)
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● East Seruway PSC awarded to Serica (100%) in October 2008
● Approx 5,800 sq km with prospects similar to those in the Glagah-Kambuna TAC
● One well commitment in first three years
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VIETNAM - 06/94 PSC (Serica 10% post farmout)
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● Farm-out agreed: AWE will pay Serica’s 33% of three wells. Serica retains10%
● Tuong Vi oil and gas prospect to be drilled in June
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NORTH SEA – CHABLIS FIELD (Serica 65%)
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● Well 48/16b-3 drilled – P&A January 2009. Top reservoir lower than forecast
● Gas in place in central area est. at 30 bcf – further evaluation of results in progress
● Possible additional gas in eastern and western areas
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25th ROUND AWARD – 48/16a (Serica 100%)
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● Block 48/16a (part) may contain upside to the west of the Chablis core area
● Protection acreage to support any eventual Chablis development
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25th ROUND AWARD 15/21g (Serica 30%)
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● Block 15/21g has a large Jurassic Fulmar sand stratigraphic play
● 3D seismic reprocessing commitment to refine the Spaniards lead into a prospect
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25th ROUND AWARD – 110/2d (Serica 100%)
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● Block 110/2d in the East Irish Sea – Sherwood sandstone seismic anomalies
● Watson prospects could be tied back to the Morecambe field if successful
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INCOME STATEMENT
Group Consolidated Income Statement2008 2007
(US$000) (US$000)
Continuing operations
Administrative expenses
Pre-licence costs
Asset write offs
Share-based payments
Other
(8,628)
(1,150)
(24,034)
(1,781)
(516)
______________
(7,813)
(287)
(9,282)
(1,962)
245
______________
2008 Notes:
Limited increase despite greater activity.
Successful applications in UKCS and Indonesia.
Spain & UKCS (Oak and Chablis) written down.
Mainly 2005-7 awards.
Depr. of office equipment, currency gains + losses.
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Operating loss before net finance revenue & tax
Profit on disposal
Net finance (costs) / revenue
Loss before taxation
Taxation credit for the year
Loss for the year from continuing operations
Discontinued operations
(Loss)/profit for the year from discontinued ops
Loss for the year
(36,109)
36,620
(1,315)
______________
(804)
228
______________
(576)
(395)
(971)
(19,099)
-
2,348
______________
(16,751)
432
______________
(16,319)
2,690
(13,629)
Sale of 15% of Kambuna for US$52.7mm.
Charges increased as Kambuna debt drawn down.
Reduction in deferred liabilities due to write-offs.
Norwegian disposal – timing of tax recoveries.
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BALANCE SHEET
Balance Sheet2008 2007
(US$000) (US$000)
Non Current Assets
Exploration & evaluation assets
Property, plant and equipment
Goodwill
Financial assets + other receivables
Current Assets
Inventories
Trade and other receivables
Cash and cash equivalents
69,711
68,526
295
5,445
______________ 143,977
4,618
7,069
56,822
71,874
19,543
768
5,904
______________ 98,089
6,991
21,906
26,025
2008 Notes:
E+E spend net of US$24mm write-offs.
Kambuna development costs net of part disposal.
Part allocated to Kambuna disposal.
Restricted cash balances, Indonesian VAT.
Kambuna field and exploration materials.
Partner and other recoveries (2007 – rig deposit).
Unrestricted cash deposits.Cash and cash equivalents
TOTAL ASSETS
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables
Financial liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Financial liabilities
Deferred income tax liabilities
TOTAL LIABILITIES
NET ASSETS
Share capital + other reserves
Accumulated deficit
TOTAL EQUITY
56,822
______________
68,509
______________
212,486
(14,599)
(32,105)
-
(295)
______________
(46,999)
______________
165,487
223,143
(57,656)
______________
165,487
26,025
______________
54,922
______________
153,011
(23,604)
-
(9,582)
(3,910)
______________
(37,096)
______________
115,915
172,600
(56,685)
______________
115,915
Unrestricted cash deposits.
Principally Kambuna work.
Drawing under debt facility.
2007 drawings under debt facility transferred to current.
2007 liabilities released upon Norway disposal.
Increased through placing, raising US$48.6mm.
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CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Cash Flow Statement2008 2007
(US$000) (US$000)
Net cash outflow from operations
Cash flows from investing activities:
Purchase of property, plant and equipment
Purchase of exploration & evaluation assets
Proceeds from disposals
Interest received
______________
(5,338)
(62,605)
(27,939)
55,831
1,898
______________
(10,169)
(185)
(63,446)
5,000
2,873
2008 Notes:
Kambuna development (classified as E&E in 2007)
Spend in UK, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Kambuna & Kutai part disposals (2007 Lematang)
On cash deposits.
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Net cash used in investing activities
Cash proceeds from financing activities:
Net proceeds from shares and options
Proceeds from loans
Finance costs paid
Net cash from financing activities
Net increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents
Cash and cash equivalents at 1 January
Cash and cash equivalents at 31 December
______________
(32,815)
48,762
25,000
(1,425)
______________
72,337
34,184
22,638
______________
56,822
______________
(55,758)
1,588
9,671
-
______________
11,259
(54,668)
77,306
______________
22,638
Impact of peak spend period mitigated through disposals.
28.9 million new shares issued.
Drawings under debt facility.
Net interest paid after capitalisations.
Cash reserves increased during challenging period.
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MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS
No. of shares % holding
Canadian Depository
Caledonia Investments
Fidelity International Ltd
AXA Framlington
Cede & Co
Cenkos
37,432,444
25,501,736
23,021,998
10,226,501
8,509,497
8,468,654
21.2
14.4
13.0
5.8
4.8
4.8
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Market capitalisation at 8 May 2009 c. US$160 million
176 million shares issued (187 million fully diluted)
Management shareholding 4.8% (10% fully diluted)
Cenkos
JP Morgan Asset Management
Mr A Craven Walker
8,468,654
7,291,271
5,704,473
4.8
4.1
3.2
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FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Financial Position
● US$49 million net placing in January 2008
● US$52 million cash received from disposal of 15% of Kambuna
● Significant financial contribution (c. $70 million) from farmouts
● US$57 million cash and US$32 million debt at 31 December 2008
● US$38 million cash and US$45 million debt at 31 March 2009
● Bank facility extended by 1 year
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Active Asset Management of Financial Exposures
● Sale of 15% Kambuna interest
● Contingent payment on Bream field (Norway) production without further cost
● Chablis farm-out raised 56% of well cost (Serica retains 65%)
● Vietnam farm-out raised 33% of cost of 3 wells (Serica retains 10%)
● Bandon farm-out raised 100% of well cost (Serica retains 50%)
● Conan and Kutai farm-out programmes ongoing
First revenue from Kambuna due mid year 2009
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KEY EVENTS FOR 2009
● 1H 09
● February – Extension of Senior Debt Facility
● March – Vietnam farmout
● April – Annual Results
● May – Drilling Bandon prospect in Ireland
● June – Results of Bandon well
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● June – Results of Bandon well
● June – Drilling Tuong Vi prospect in Vietnam
● Mid-year – Kambuna production starts
● 2H 09
● Results of Tuong Vi well
● Conan prospect farm-out - East Irish Sea
● Columbus development plan approval
● Kutai farm-out
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SUMMARY
Serica is confident of growth in 2009
● First production revenue due from Kambuna mid-year
● Finances strengthened through:
● 2008 asset sales
● Successful farm-outs
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● Successful farm-outs
● Extension of debt facility
● High potential exploration (Bandon & Conan prospects)
● Columbus development project progressing
● Further exploration new ventures where Serica can add value
● M&A activity if shareholder value can be enhanced
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