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Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East?
Dr. Bessma MomaniUniversity of Western [email protected]
Image: www.caglecartoons.com
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Lecture Outline:
• What, where is the Middle East?
• What encourages democratization?
• Will there be democracy or dim-ocracy in the ME?
• Why in the ME, the US is not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’?
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Middle East
• Geographic area• Not cultural,
ethnic, linguistic, or religious
• Not all Arab countries
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The Arab World…(based on Arab League Membership)
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Middle East Political LandscapeCountry Indicators for Foreign Policy
Country
Index 2000
Democracy Civil,
Political Rights
Press Freedom
Corruption
Jordan 7 6 6 4
Egypt 8 8 7 7
Saudi Arabia
9 9 9 n/a
Kuwait 8 6 5 n/a
Turkey 3 6 6 5
Iraq 9 9 9 n/a
Algeria 7 8 8 n/a
Morocco 8 5 6 5
Columbia 3 6 6 7Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source: http:// www.carleton.ca/cifp/
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Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes
• There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else
• Repression, exclusion of political participation
• ‘insular’/resist globaliz’n• Large youth population• →Hopelessness, extremism
What encourages democratization?
April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al-Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram
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Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization…
• National unity– ‘togetherness’
• Political leadership-- personalities
• Historical legacy-- colonialism
• Political culture– people view power
• Ethnic harmony-- cooperation
• Strong political parties-- brokerage
• Political institutions—legisl; judiciary
• Socioeconomic development– middle class
• Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie
• National security– no external threat
Map of Saudi Arabia
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• International organizations– UN declaration of human rights
– International law; ICC
• State pressure– EU; foreign aid
• Economic Factors– MNCs, entrepreneurs
– Globalization
• Waves of democracy– Huntington: “snowballing”
External Factors thatEncourage Democratization…
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George W. Bush on November 6th 2003 at the National Endowment for Democracy
“As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”
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What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East?
Domino Democratization in the Middle East
Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy
US administrationprofesses
Skeptics
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Democracy…a domino effect?
• Latin America• Eastern Europe • Asia • Domino-effect can be a trigger,
if internal conditions are favorable…
• Middle East/ Arab world next?• See: Democratic Mirage in the
Middle East www.ceip.org
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Middle Easterners want democracy…
• Strong appetite for democracy
• Ex. of struggles for democracy:
• Early 1980s- Turkey shifted to democracy; military watchdog
• 1989, Jordan- Parliamentary elections– 2002 US-FTA
• Elections in Bahrain, Morocco– US Free trade candidates
• Iran, the youth, reformers– vs. Ayatollahs, religious establishment
http://people-press.org/
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Push factors for political liberalization…
of satellite, open media
– Expose corruption
– ‘neighborhood effect’
• Ex. Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya
– Challenges state-owned media
– But, In Iraq, both banned for unfavorable coverage of US occupation
• Spread of Internet
– Organizing movements
– Criticize government
– Outlet for banned media
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A classified Feb. 26, 2003, State Department report by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research entitled:
Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes
"even if some version of democracy took root ... anti-American sentiment is so pervasive that Iraqi elections in the short term could lead to the rise of Islamic-controlled governments hostile to the United States."
Reported by Greg Miller at www.latimes.org
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Or…Dim-ocracy…
• Igniting the ‘Arab streets’– Populist, unorganized, anti-
government demonstrations
• → Civil war in each state?• ↑ hatred and terror on US
interests– Backlash
• Rise of Islamists: critical of their governments and the US
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For the US: Islamic Governments mean→ dim-ocracy?
• Popular Islamist movements /parties– Conservative, anti-liberal
values, some anti-US
• Would the US want to see Islamist-controlled governments– ? Eliminate democracy
• Extreme scenario is that these parties create Islamic states– Ex. 1979 Iran
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Algeria: Déjà vu….
• 1992: Islamist party (FIS) won elections– Military backed-regime cancelled
elections
• Algeria civil war: – 130,000 killed in the past 10 years – State of emergency, human rights
violations
• taught other Islamists to go underground and to not trust region's secular elites– Suppressed in Algeria, Tunisia,
Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia
• Clinton administration: authoritarian regimes better than Islamist regimes
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Case in point: Egypt
• US foreign aid to Egypt: over US $2 B
• b/c US fear ‘Algerian scenario’
• Preferable to keep the status quo
• With US approval, the Egyptian government represses and prevents democratic movements…
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How the Egyptian government prevents/represses democratization….
• Media censorship– No mention of any opposition
party allowed on state TV in 1995
• Restricting fundraising of political parties
• Banning religious parties
• All unions are gov’t controlled
• State employees: intellectuals, journalists
• Outlaws demonstrations, indefinite detentions (50,000 political prisoners)
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Problem: US not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’ in the ME
Four general reasons…1. Negative view of US
foreign policy2. Iraqi occupation/
democratization going poorly
3. The oil connection4. Bush’s post 9-11 evil vs.
good rhetoric
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1) Perception of US Foreign Policy
Image and table: http://people-press.org/
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2) Iraqi occupation going poorly
• Insecurity/ Anarchy
• Civilian deaths
• Political round-up– de-Baathification
• Unemployment (<50%)
• Electrical Blackouts– Also water & fuel
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2) Iraqi democracy …really?• US plans for ‘Iraqi sovereignty’
• CPA appoint 18 organizing committees that will then select delegates
• These delegate then select the representatives of the legislative.
• The representatives have an internal vote to elect ministers and an executive.
• BUT…Shia (60%)- Al-Sistani– want direct elections immediately
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3) Oil…the motive of the US invasion of Iraq?
• WMD?• None of the hijackers
from Iraq; No connection to 9-11
• Iraq not a hotbed for religious extremism
• ►Get Iraqi oil to break OPEC strength– Hijackers from Saudi
Arabia
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3) The OIL connection
• Iraqi facilities need to be rehabilitated
• US emphasizing US contracts
• Bush admin. too connected to oil– Ex. VP Cheney’s– KBR awarded
contracts.
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4) US reference to moral/ religious rhetoric post 9-11…
The ME hears the Bush administration’s…
• Axis of evil• Good vs. evil• Anti-Islam comments
– by General Boykin
– Repeated in Arab media
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Final thoughts…
• It is unclear whether external involvement such as the American occupation of Iraq will be enough to spark democracy in the ME
• Internal factors do not appear conducive, especially in Iraq
• The US not deemed to be an honest broker in the ME, and there may be increased backlash as a result
• Finally, if true democracy spread throughout the ME and if Islamist parties predictably came to power…what would this mean to US interests in the region.
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Video…
…this video is available for viewing online for free, log on to :
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/truth/